This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells begins Wednesday, and while seeded players won't take the court until the second round, there are still plenty of big names among Wednesday's first-round action. A pair of former women's champions here will look to draw on their favorable experiences in matches expected to be highly competitive, while promising teenagers on both the men's and women's side could deliver statement wins. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Luca Van Assche (+185) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Van Assche is still finding his footing on the ATP Tour, but the 19-year-old Frenchman has shown flashes of brilliance, including a top-30 win over Lorenzo Musetti during a third-round run at the Australian Open. The buy-low window is still open before Van Assche truly makes a name for himself. Arnaldi has been a largely overlooked member of the up-and-coming Italian golden generation, as the 23-year-old has struggled to string together consistent results. Arnaldi's just 4-6 in his last 10 matches and has a .500 career hard-court record.
Camila Giorgi (+205) vs. Katie Boulter
Giorgi has dropped out of the top 100 after a 1-4 start to 2024, but the Italian has long been viewed as a dangerous floater in big events due to her high-risk game. Giorgi takes the ball early and generally dictates play. While she doesn't really have a Plan B when things go south, her Plan A has helped Giorgi pull off many upsets over the years and even take home a WTA 1000 title at the 2021 Canadian Open. Boulter's flying high after winning her second career WTA title in San Diego last week, but the Brit made it past the Round of 32 in only one event between her Nottingham title last June and the triumph in San Diego. Boulter doesn't exactly have a track record of consistent success, which makes this the perfect time to sell high.
Honorable Mention
Sara Sorribes Tormo (+195) vs. Marie Bouzkova
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Mirra Andreeva (-290) vs. Katie Volynets
Andreeva is ranked No. 38 so she just missed a first-round bye, but few would argue that the 16-year-old Russian isn't already a top-30 player on the WTA Tour in terms of ability. A win in this match would set up a rematch of Andreeva's Australian Open second-round match against world No. 6 Ons Jabeur, which Andreeva dominated 6-0, 6-2. Andreeva ultimately reached the Round of 16 and boasts a 9-4 career Grand Slam record, showcasing the ability to hang with top players at a young age. Volynets is ranked No. 131 and hasn't even faced a top-40 opponent since losing to Caroline Garcia in the first round of Wimbledon
Borna Coric (-250) vs. Sebastian Ofner
Coric has spent the vast majority of the past few years well inside the top 30, but he just missed a bye here as the world No. 35. Ofner isn't far behind him at No. 38, but the Austrian hasn't looked like a top-40 player lately. In his last 10 matches, Ofner is 3-7, with no top-100 wins and only one victory over a player ranked in the top 400, as well as a pair of losses to players outside the top 100. Coric's 2-4 record against top-50 opponents in 2024 could be better, but he gets a nice opportunity to add another such win here.
Honorable Mention
Jack Draper (-425) vs. Christopher O'Connell
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Paula Badosa (-110) vs. Ashlyn Krueger
Badosa has proven she can excel on the slow Indian Wells hard courts, as she won this title in 2021 and reached the semifinals in 2022. The former world No. 2 has battled injuries since, but she's still only 26 years old and has bounced back a bit in 2024 with a third-round result at the Australian Open. Badosa pulled out mid-match in the first round of Dubai, but if she's back to full health, her track record here should make Badosa a clear favorite over Krueger, even though the 19-year-old American is ranked two spots higher at No. 71. Badosa beat Krueger in Qatar less than a month ago.
Marcos Giron (-160) vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Giron is most comfortable on slow hard courts like Indian Wells that allow him to make the most of his counterpunching skills. The former UCLA standout has been playing some strong tennis recently, notching a win over Frances Tiafoe and two victories over Adrian Mannarino for a trio of top-20 wins over the past month. Giron's just four spots back of his career high ranking of 44 at age 30, and with the California crowd in his corner, Giron has a nice opportunity to continue his recent winning ways against the 99th-ranked Kokkinakis, who is just 3-5 in main draw level matches in 2024.
Honorable Mention
Caroline Wozniacki (+100) vs. Lin Zhu
