This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The fourth and final Grand Slam of 2023 begins Monday, August 28 from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic have dominated the men's game recently, but a few other contenders are capable of challenging them. The women's draw has numerous players with realistic title aspirations here, but world No. 1 and reigning US Open champion Iga Swiatek is the player to beat.
Before we get to the favorites, contenders and sleepers at the US Open, let's acknowledge some notable injuries and absences. Rafael Nadal (hip), Nick Kyrgios (wrist) and Pablo Carreno Busta (elbow) are out for the remainder of 2023. Marin Cilic (knee), Denis Shapovalov (knee) and Jenson Brooksby (wrist) also won't participate on the men's side. Simona Halep is suspended, while 2021 champion Emma Raducanu (wrists) is injured, and Garbine Muguruza (personal) remains sidelined. A few players either sat out or retired from recent Masters in Montreal and Cincinnati, but the likes of Elena Rybakina (shoulder), Elina Svitolina (foot), Paula Badosa (back) and Sofia Kenin (thigh) on the women's side, as well as men's players Holger Rune (back), Karen Khachanov (back) and Andy Murray (abdomen) intend to give it a go here.
It's Djokovic, Alcaraz and everyone else in the men's draw, though Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner both have at least a realistic chance of winning and a few Americans could make deep runs in the most open quarter of the draw. Aryna Sabalenka and Rybakina aren't too far behind Swiatek, and their tier also include Americans Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula. After each player's name below, you will see their title odds from DraftKings Sportsbook (DK), FanDuel Sportsbook (FD), and BetMGM (BetMGM) in that order. Caesars Sportsbook also offers US Open futures but had not yet posted them at press time. The odds can vary quite substantially, especially for long shots, so you are encouraged to shop around for the best lines if you have access to multiple betting platforms. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for various sportsbooks, including DraftKings Sportsbook.
US Open Picks: Men's Tournament
The Favorite
Novak Djokovic [DK: (+125), FD: (+110), BetMGM: (+120)] - Djokovic bounced back from losing the epic Wimbledon final to Alcaraz by winning the Cincinnati Masters in his first US tournament appearance since 2021. In the Cincinnati final, Djokovic beat Alcaraz 5-7, 7-6 (7), 7-6 (4) in the first hard-court meeting between these rivals. Djokovic got the far easier half of the draw here, with Alcaraz getting both Sinner and Medvedev in his half, so the 36-year-old Serb should have a relative cakewalk to the final. An Alcaraz-Djokovic final would be close to even money, but Djokovic's far superior title odds are due to his significantly easier draw.
In the Mix
Carlos Alcaraz [DK: (+190), FD: (+175), BetMGM: (+175)] - Alcaraz will face the pressure of defending a Grand Slam title for the first time, and he'll likely have to beat Sinner, Medvedev and Djokovic back-to-back to do so. The uber-talented Spaniard struggled in Toronto and Cincinnati as he often tried to finish points too quickly and with too much flash, so Alcaraz will need to recalibrate his game to conserve energy in the early rounds. He'll need every ounce of it given what potentially lies ahead in the second week, but the value here at a near 2-to-1 payout is tempting, as Alcaraz is certainly capable of overcoming every obstacle in his path.
Daniil Medvedev [DK: (+1000), FD: (+1000), BetMGM: (+900)] - Medvedev beat Djokovic in the 2021 US Open final and has a 32-5 hard-court record in 2023, so the No. 3 seed shouldn't be completely discounted here. He's the clear favorite to emerge as the semifinalist from his Russian-heavy quarter of the draw with No. 8 seed Andrey Rublev and No. 11 Karen Khachanov, but Medvedev's likely semifinal opponent is Alcaraz. All five sets Medvedev and Alcaraz have played in 2023 -- including two on hard courts -- were won 6-3 or easier by Alcaraz, as the Spaniard's offense has overwhelmed Medvedev's retrieval skills.
Jannik Sinner [DK: (+1400), FD: (+1400), BetMGM: (+1200)] - Sinner has accomplished a lot of firsts recently, as he made his first Grand Slam semifinal at Wimbledon, then claimed his first Masters 1000 title on the hard courts of Toronto. The big-hitting Italian had match point against Alcaraz in the US Open quarterfinals last year, and their head-to-head is tied 3-3, so Sinner certainly won't be intimidated if they meet in a blockbuster quarterfinal rematch. The problem for Sinner's title hopes is that he'll likely have to beat Alcaraz, Medvedev and Djokovic back-to-back-to-back, and he's a combined 0-9 against the latter two.
Unsurprisingly given the top-heavy state of the men's game, there is yet another substantial drop-off in title odds after Medvedev and Sinner. The next tier of contenders consists of Alexander Zverev [DK: (+4000), FD: (+3400), BetMGM: (+2800)], Stefanos Tsitsipas [DK: (+4000), FD: (+4000), BetMGM: (+3300)], Holger Rune [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5000), BetMGM: (+5000)], Casper Ruud [DK: (+5000), FD: (+6500), BetMGM: (+5000)], Taylor Fritz [DK: (+5000), FD: (+6000), BetMGM: (+6600)] and Frances Tiafoe [DK: (+6500), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+5000)]. Zverev could face Sinner, Alcaraz, Medvedev and Djokovic in the last four rounds, and he's just 13-11 on hard courts in 2023, so the 12th-seeded German's title odds seem overly optimistic. Tsitsipas hasn't been past the third round in five previous US Open appearances, and the 2023 Australian Open finalist will have to navigate a difficult early draw to break that trend. He faces former world No. 3 Milos Raonic in the first round and could have a third-round rematch with 28th-seeded American Christopher Eubanks, who eliminated Tsitsipas in the Round of 16 at Wimbledon. Fritz is seeded ninth, and he's in the same section of the draw as the seventh-seeded Tsitsipas, so the two top-10 players could face off in the fourth round. The likely prize for the winner of that match? A quarterfinal date with Djokovic.
The other three players in this section have a far better chance of reaching the semifinals, as they're all located in the most open quarter of the draw. Rune is the chalk semifinalist in this section as the No. 4 seed, but the 20-year-old has never played this much high-level tennis in one year before, and it's starting to wear him down. He enters the US Open on a three-match losing streak and has first withdrawn and later retired recently due to a lower-back injury. Ruud is no stranger to capitalizing on a favorable US Open draw, as he rode one all the way to the final last year, but he's playing with far less confidence in 2023, as the No. 5 seed has gone just 6-8 on hard courts this year. Tiafoe's semifinal run at last year's US Open seemed like it could be a once-in-a-lifetime achievement, but the fiery American has a realistic chance of repeating that result given his draw. Tiafoe's ability to energize the crowd and feed off that energy will make the No. 10 seed a tough out, but another American in this section of the draw could be even better equipped to make it out of this section.
Sleepers
Tommy Paul [DK: (+13000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+6600)] - Paul belongs at the top of the section after Djokovic, Alcaraz, Medvedev and Sinner, so he's an absolute steal at his current odds, especially since the 14th-seeded American was thrown into the Rune-Ruud section of the draw. This entire quarter is teeming with talented Americans, as Tiafoe and Paul are joined by Sebastian Korda, Ben Shelton and J.J. Wolf. Paul made the Australian Open semifinals earlier this year, and he'll be brimming with confidence after splitting a pair of nailbiters against Alcaraz in Toronto and Cincinnati; Paul won 6-3 in the third in Canada, and Alcaraz won 6-3 in the third in Cincinnati.
Karen Khachanov [DK: (+13000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+12500)] - If Khachanov's healthy, he's another steal at similar odds to Paul. Khachanov's last three Grand Slam results are a semifinal run at last year's US Open, semifinals at this year's Australian Open and quarterfinals at the French Open. Unfortunately, he suffered a stress fracture in his back at the French Open and hasn't played since. Khachanov was originally in the Cincinanti draw before pulling out, which suggests that he at least felt close to playing two weeks ago.
John Isner [DK: (+50000), FD: (+25000), BetMGM: (+30000)] - Isner deserves a shoutout in what will be the final tournament of the 38-year-old American's career. He'll leave it all out on the court here, and the 6-foot-10 Isner's tremendous serve makes him dangerous against any opponent. He could face Khachanov in the second round, and if Khachanov isn't fully healthy yet, Isner could go on a nice little run here, even though a third career US Open quarterfinal is still a longshot for the former world No. 8.
US Open Picks: Women's Tournament
The Favorite
Iga Swiatek [DK: (+240), FD: (+220), BetMGM: (+260)] - Swiatek successfully defended her French Open crown this year, and the world No. 1 will look to do the same at the US Open. Like her idol Nadal, Swiatek has a game that works best on clay, and the US Open hard courts seem to take much better to that style than the hard courts at the Australian Open. Rafa has four US Open titles and only two down under, and Swiatek's only non-clay Grand Slam so far came at the US Open last year. Like Alcaraz, Swiatek will have quite a difficult path if the chalk holds on her half of the draw. A potential rematch with Gauff -- who just beat Swiatek in Cincinnati -- could await in the quarterfinals. In the semifinals, Swiatek could face Rybakina, who leads their head-to-head 3-0 this year, and winning that would merely get her to the final, where Swiatek could face the second-seeded Sabalenka with the world No. 1 ranking on the line.
In the Mix
Aryna Sabalenka [DK: (+475), FD: (+450), BetMGM: (+400)] - Sabalenka has been the best hard-court player in the world this year. She won the previous hard-court Grand Slam at the Australian Open, and the big-hitting Belarusian will take over the world No. 1 ranking if she matches or betters Swiatek's result here. She's in the easier half of the draw with Pegula, Ons Jabeur and Caroline Garcia as the other top-eight seeds. Sabalenka has the talent to beat anyone, but she'll need to hold her nerve, as she's tightened up late in a few big matches this year and occasionally allowed her dreaded serving yips to creep back in.
Coco Gauff [DK: (+700), FD: (+700), BetMGM: (+750)] - Expectations have never been higher for Gauff heading into a hard-court Grand Slam, and that's saying something considering the teenager has held celebrity status since she was 15 years old. Gauff won two of the three North American hard-court tournaments she played leading up to the US Open, including the Cincinnati WTA 1000, where she defeated Swiatek in a three-set semifinal and won every other match in straight sets. Questions persist about how Gauff will respond when someone takes her time away on the forehand side, but her elite footwork and rock-solid backhand have Gauff playing as well as anybody lately. Getting through all three of Swiatek, Rybakina and Sabalenka consecutively would be tough, but there's a good chance at least one of them will be knocked out along the way.
Elena Rybakina [DK: (+800), FD: (+850), BetMGM: (+850)] - Rybakina retired in Cincinnati with a shoulder injury earlier this month. Assuming she's back to full health, the No. 4 seed will be a tough out as usual. She beat Swiatek en route to the Australian Open final before losing to Sabalenka, so Rybakina's power game works almost as well on hard courts as it does on grass, where she won her lone Grand Slam to date at Wimbledon last year. Her draw has a few tough floaters, but Rybakina should generally be considered the clear favorite in every match prior to the semifinals, even if she draws No. 8 seed Maria Sakkari or No. 10 seed Karolina Muchova in the quarterfinals.
Jessica Pegula [DK: (+1000), FD: (+1100), BetMGM: (+900)] - Pegula beat Gauff and Swiatek en route to a WTA 1000 title in Montreal earlier this month, but while she's occasionally shown she can beat top players outside of Grand Slams, the 29-year-old American won't be treated as a serious contender at the biggest tournaments until she delivers in the second week. She's 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals in her career, and Pegula could face some tough opponents just to get to the quarters here. Wimbledon semifinalist Elina Svitolina is her potential third-round opponent, while big hitters Liudmila Samsonova or Madison Keys could lurk in the Round of 16.
The next tier down consists of Karolina Muchova [DK: (+2000), FD: (+1900), BetMGM: (+2800)], Marketa Vondrousova [DK: (+2000), FD: (+2800), BetMGM: (+2800)] and Ons Jabeur [DK: (+2800), FD: (+2200), BetMGM: (+2800)]. Muchova's results this year include finals at both the French Open and Cincinnati WTA 1000. She defeated Sabalenka in the semifinals on both occasions but finds herself on the opposite side of the draw this time. The No. 10 seed could face Sakkari in the Round of 16, then Rybakina in the quarters, and Swiatek/Gauff in the semis, but if she gets through all that and faces Sabalenka in the finals, Muchova would have to like her chances. Vondrousova came out of nowhere to win Wimbledon. She showed off her hard-court skills by claiming the silver medal at the Olympics in 2021, but Vondrousova has yet to break through to the quarterfinals or better at a Grand Slam on hard courts. She's favored to do so here, though, as the No. 9 seed is in the same section of the draw as free-falling No. 7 seed Caroline Garcia.
Jabeur's seeded fifth here and reached the final of the US Open last year, but she's been bothered by injuries throughout 2023 and sat out Montreal after replicating last year's run to the Wimbledon final. The Tunisian returned for Cincinnati, where she lost to Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, dropping Jabeur's 2023 hard-court record to a pedestrian 6-5. She hasn't shown enough on this surface to be considered a top contender in 2023, especially with a quarterfinal Sabalenka rematch looming. Liudmila Samsonova [DK: (+5000), FD: (+5500), BetMGM: (+3300)] is just below Muchova, Vondrousova and Jabeur on BetMGM and a bit more of a longshot on other sites. If the big-hitting Russian recaptures her form from Montreal, she'll be a force to be reckoned with. Samsonova beat Sabalenka, Belinda Bencic and Rybakina there consecutively, but because matches were pushed back by rain, she had to play two matches twice in the final three days, culminating in Samsonova running out of gas and winning just one game in the final against Pegula. With retractable roofs on both Arthur Ashe and Louis Armstrong Stadium, a massive backlog in the most important part of the tournament won't be something Samsonova has to worry about here.
Sleepers
Mirra Andreeva [DK: (+8000), FD: (+7500), BetMGM: (+6600)] - There's no shortage of sleepers on the women's side, as Vondrousova just showed the unpredictability of the WTA Tour by winning Wimbledon as an unseeded player. Andreeva's probably a year or two away from being a true title contender at the slams, but her odds will be much shorter by that point, so you may as well take a chance early on. The 16-year-old Russian reached the third round of the French Open and Round of 16 at Wimbledon in her first two career Grand Slam main draw appearances, losing three-setters to Gauff and Keys, respectively. She could face Gauff in the second round here in a battle of teenagers.
Barbora Krejcikova [DK: (+10000), FD: (+12000), BetMGM: (+6600)] - Krejcikova beat Sabalenka, Pegula and Swiatek consecutively to win the WTA 1000 title in Dubai on hard courts earlier this year, plus she's shown she has what it takes to win a Grand Slam. Krejcikova won the French Open singles title in 2021, and she has 10 Grand Slam doubles titles to boot (seven women's, three mixed). The No. 12 seed has struggled since suffering a leg injury during the grass-court season, but at these odds, it's hard to pass up this buy-low opportunity on a player with such a strong track record over the past few years.
Jennifer Brady [DK: (+15000), FD: (+11000), BetMGM: (+15000)] - Football fans won't have a Brady to root for during the upcoming NFL season, but they can root for a different Brady for the fortnight preceding the first NFL Sunday of the 2023 season. This Brady returned in July after a two-year absence due to a knee injury, and the 28-year-old American was starting to look like herself in Montreal, where she beat Jelena Ostapenko before pushing Rybakina to the limit in a 6-7 (3), 7-6 (5), 6-3 loss. Prior to getting hurt, Brady reached the semis at the 2020 US Open and the final of the 2021 Australian Open. It's a little early to expect such success here, but that's exactly why her odds are so long.
Sasha's Picks to Win the US Open
Djokovic is the safer bet to win on the men's side given his far easier path to the final, but I think the difference in odds between him and Alcaraz has grown too great. Going with Alcaraz at his longer odds from the jump could allow you to hedge by betting on Djokovic if they meet in the final, and then you can just relax and enjoy watching what could be one of the greatest matches of all time, if their recent meeting in Cincinnati was any indication. Paul definitely has the most appeal as a sleeper, and I'd take Sinner over Medvedev, but picking just one guy at the end of day, it's got to be Alcaraz -- the only man in the world capable of producing points like this.
Going chalk on the women's side is usually a risky proposition, but it's hard to bet against Swiatek here given how she looked at last year's US Open. While she lost to Pegula and Gauff in the lead-up to this year's event, both of those matches were very winnable for Swiatek with just a couple tweaks, which the fast and dedicated learner has likely already implemented ahead of the US Open. Look for Iga to take home her second Grand Slam title of 2023 and keep the No. 1 ranking. Swiatek's fifth career Grand Slam title could come against a surprise finalist such as Samsonova.
