NASCAR Barometer: Ryan Blaney Wins at Martinsville

Ryan Blaney gave everything he had in the final round of elimination races, and he forced his way into Victory Lane and the finale Sunday at Martinsville. The Team Penske driver started 11th and pushed his way forward into the lead just before lap 200. He went on to lead 145 laps, working his way back to the front late on fresh tires despite several cars opting to stay out and bet on track position in the final miles. The win was Blaney's third of the season and it comes along with a spot among the final four championship contenders set to settle the 2023 series title.  Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell already booked their spots with victories, and William Byron did enough to ensure his points advantage carried him through to the finale. With Sunday's results, Martin Truex Jr., Tyler Reddick, Chris Buescher, and Denny Hamlin were all eliminated from the championship. 

The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series championship decider is set for this coming week at Phoenix Raceway. Byron won at the track earlier this season, while teammate Kyle Larson won there for his championship in 2021. Neither Blaney nor Bell has ever won at Phoenix, though Blaney has been the runner up the past two races at the track. Larson is the only driver of the final four contenders that could claim a second series championship and the other three will be fighting for their first. It all comes down to the NASCAR Cup Series Championship this week at Phoenix Raceway.

UPGRADE

Ryan Blaney - Blaney was a man on a mission in the latest round of the playoffs as he sought to be one of the four drivers to race for the championship at Phoenix. After two good results to start the round, he asserted his strength again Sunday at Martinsville, racing to the second stage win ahead of Denny Hamlin. Through the final stage, he took control and forced his way into the championship battle at Phoenix by winning the Xfinity 500, his third victory of the season and first at Martinsville. With two wins and four finishes of sixth or better in the last five races, Blaney may have the most momentum behind him entering the championship weekend. He may have to win back-to-back races to do it, though. He finished in the top 10 in his last six Phoenix starts, including runner up in his last two. 

Kyle Larson - After winning at Las Vegas, Larson's focus has been on winning his second series championship this coming week at Phoenix. Homestead was a mulligan that didn't affect his standing having already won to advance, and Larson came back with a confident run at Martinsville as a prelude to next week's title decider. His sixth-place finish Sunday was his 17th top-10 finish of the season and gives him some valuable confidence for the coming week. Larson has been in this situation before and won. His only prior win at the track won him his championship back in 2021. However, Larson was not one to pass over at the track earlier this season. He led 201 laps from pole in that race and finished fourth while teammate William Byron scored the race win. Larson and the Hendrick Motorsports championship contenders should be tough competition for the rest of the field this championship weekend.

William Byron - Sunday's Martinsville race was a nail-biter for Byron, but he did enough to accomplish his mission of advancing to the championship race. The No. 24 team struggled at the short oval in the spring, and their package for Sunday's race wasn't much better. Byron could not find the handling he needed to move forward, and he spent most of the afternoon running around the top 15. He didn't score any stage points but scrapped for every position within his grasp in the final stage. In the end, his 13th-place finish was enough to ensure he would be among the final four championship contenders. It was a mission accomplished for the squad, but they will have wished to take more momentum with them to the championship round. Byron is a Phoenix winner though, leading 64 laps in the spring from the third starting position. His next mission is to sweep season victories there to grab his first series title.

Christopher Bell - Bell backed up his Homestead win with another top-10 finish to close out the final round of playoff eliminations. His seventh-place finish at Martinsville is a firm foundation to build from this week as he makes his second consecutive final four appearance. Winning a week earlier this season also gives him and the team some extra time to prepare compared to last season, and he has big expectations, too. He is the only Joe Gibbs Racing teammate to have made it into the championship battle. Bell is very capable of grabbing that first series title, though. He brings four top-10 finishes from seven Phoenix starts with him into this important weekend, and his best finish at the track came earlier this season with a sixth-place result. He has the fewest 2023 victories of the four championship contenders, but Bell should not be underestimated compared to the other three contenders.

Aric Almirola - Almirola was one of 10 cars to stay out under caution in Sunday's final stage in an attempt to gain track position and upset what had been the running order all afternoon. Almirola was the one who made the most of that gain as he went on to lead 66 laps, slipping only to second by the finish. It was an impressive run from the veteran, and it was also his second Martinsville top-five and fourth top-10 at the track from his last five starts. The season hasn't been a great one for Almirola, but he has had some good moments and Sunday's runner-up finish was definitely one of those. Flashes of speed and a handful of top results are encouraging for the No. 10 team, but they have their work cut out for them as they look to improve for 2024. The last stop of 2023 is another chance for them to get a boost. Almirola finished 33rd at the track in March after losing a wheel.

DOWNGRADE

Chris Buescher - While Sunday's eighth-place Martinsville finish was a good one, it wasn't enough to keep Buescher's championship push alive. In fact, it was Buescher's best ever Martinsville finish in the Cup Series, which is fitting considering 2023 has been his best season in the series, too. Unfortunately, it meant his championship effort came to an end, though. However, Buescher and RFK Racing should be pleased with their results this year. Buescher scored three wins and advanced all the way to the final knockout round of playoff races. It was a banner year that he and the team will work to improve upon for 2024. The foundation is clearly there, but consistency is what they'll need to find. Buescher and team will head to Phoenix with their sights firmly set upon next season.

Tyler Reddick - Unfortunately, the championship road ended for Reddick Sunday as well. The 23XI Racing driver spun in qualifying, and that mistake set the stage for a lackluster race on Sunday. Reddick started 19th and missed scoring vital stage points in the first two segments. Things didn't get better in the final stage either. Reddick was mired in traffic throughout the afternoon and couldn't make the inroads he needed to have a chance at advancing to the championship finale. With one race remaining, Reddick has two wins, 10 top-fives, and 16 top-10s, though. It has been a successful season for the No. 45 team, but Sunday they came up short of their goal. They have one more race from which to take some momentum into the winter as they turn their sights to 2024. Reddick has two top-fives from his last three Phoenix starts, both of which were third-place finishes in the spring editions of the race.

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex started his Martinsville weekend on the right foot by capturing pole for Sunday's race. That positive track position from the start put him in position to advance. That situation unraveled when a speeding penalty wiped out his advantage and put him back in traffic, though. Truex was never able to recover from that mistake and could only watch as his championship rivals clawed their way forward ahead of him. Truex finished the day in 12th position, which was his second race of the elimination round outside of the top 10. All focus this coming week at Phoenix will now be to do what he can to support teammate Christopher Bell win a championship for the Gibbs organization. He is a prior winner at Phoenix, but he hasn't finished better than 15th in his last three tries.

Alex Bowman - The current season has been one to forget for Bowman, and not many would fault him for just wanting to get through the coming race at Phoenix to put it all behind him, too. Bowman is winless and sits outside of the top 20 in points after missing three races through injury earlier in the season. These are results not typical of the No. 48 and something Bowman and team will be dissecting heavily in the winter. He does have two teammates to support in the final race, though. However, that may be a tough proposition for him. Bowman has just two top-10 finishes at the track. One of those came this spring, but the other was all the way back in 2016. Fantasy players would be hard pressed to think that this weekend could be a last-gasp turnaround for the No. 48, especially considering the extra focus the championship contenders are sure to bring.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Denny Hamlin - Once Hamlin got to the front at Martinsville he was going to give it all he had to win his way into the championship race. He overtook teammate Martin Truex Jr. in the first stage and sailed on to the segment win with his sights set firmly on a place among the final four at Phoenix. In the second stage he hung tough to finish second behind Ryan Blaney, but his effort was not enough. He didn't have the pace to track down Blaney for the win, and he didn't have enough spots to close the gap to Byron in points. Despite finishing third, Hamlin was surprisingly knocked out of the playoffs at Martinsville for the second season in a row. It was another championship-like season for the veteran that came up too short. He is the winningest driver to have never won the championship, and that quest continues into 2024.