NASCAR Barometer: Busch Wins Phoenix, Momentum to Homestead

Kyle Busch rose to the occasion to take advantage of Kevin Harvick's trouble and win at ISM Raceway to assure his spot among the final four championship contenders in this week's finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway. By the checkered flag, he didn't need the victory to claim that spot, but the win will give him the last bit of momentum heading into this championship weekend as he seeks his second series title. Joining him in the battle will be Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr. and Harvick. Busch, Truex and Harvick are each seeking their second championships, while Logano looks to do one better than his previous best finish to claim his first. As expected throughout much of the season, the three most dominant drivers make up the championship contenders.

This week's finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway is a winner-take-all battle that will decide the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series champion. Truex won the battle last year, but both Harvick and Busch have won at the circuit to lift the championship trophy, too. Logano is the only contender yet to win at the circuit, but he could play the role of spoiler if the other three dominant drivers suffer any issues this Sunday.

UPGRADE

Kyle Busch – Busch won the second stage at Phoenix to give him some extra points to work his way into one of the four spots available for championship contenders this week in Miami. Circumstances later in the race meant that he was able to clinch his spot in the championship before the final stage was complete, too. That was enough, though. Busch went on to seize the lead and claim his eight of the season and the last before Homestead. Like his brother, Kyle Busch's only Homestead win came in his championship season. Since that victory he has added two top-10s at the track, though. He finished second at the circuit last season to narrowly miss out on the title to Martin Truex Jr.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick leveraged the penalty following Texas to dominate practice and qualifying at Phoenix. He led from the start and dominated the first stage but a failed front tire to dropped him a lap behind for the start of the second segment. Luckily for him, that trouble came early enough in the race for him to recover. He quickly worked his way back onto the lead lap and then methodically climbed up the running order to finish fifth, which was enough to earn a spot among the final four contenders this coming week. Fantasy owners have to go all the way back to 2007 to find the last time Harvick didn't finish in the top 10 at Homestead, which could make him the favorite heading into this final race.

Martin Truex Jr. – By the time Sunday's race finished, Truex knew that he only needed to finish on the lead lap to claim his spot in Homestead to battle for the championship. He and his team took the conservative route to ensure his spot among those four contenders. While the end result may not have been what the team would have liked, it was enough to see them through to Homestead. Momentum may not be on their side, though. This final round of eliminations has arguably been hardest on the No. 78 team. However, like others before him, Truex's only Homestead win came the year he won the title, 2017. His average finish at the track is 11.5 from 13 career starts, with four top-fives and eight top-10s.

Aric Almirola – While Almirola may not be eligible for the title this week, he should still be proud of what he accomplished this season. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing he has taken the No. 10 team to success they hadn't yet experienced. He went all the way to the final laps of Phoenix in the championship battle, and has every reason to be proud of his best season in the series so far. Almirola raced to a fourth-place finish last week, which was a result no fantasy owner would have expected from the No. 10 team one season ago. Almirola is finally driving equipment that is capable of putting him in contention to win. He finished 18th at Homestead last seasonand has one top-five and two top-10s from eight career starts at the circuit.

DOWNGRADE

Chase Elliott – Elliott stalked Harvick for most of the first segment in Phoenix, and then took the stage win when trouble struck the No. 4. Elliott was doing everything he could to advance in the playoffs to the final race in Homestead but he was caught up in an accident between Kurt Busch and Denny Hamlin. Both Busch and Elliott were fighting to advance in the championship but were taken out in the same wreck. Still, 2018 could be considered a breakout year for Elliott. He won his first races in the series and came within one race of battling for the title in Homestead. Elliott has finishes of 11th and fifth in his two Cup starts at Homestead, but fantasy owners likely have yet to see the best of him.

Joey Logano – A failed rear tire in Phoenix sent Logano spinning out of contention early in the second stage. The move he made to win his way into the championship finale means even more after that mishap, but he and the team will be hoping that incident last week doesn't sap their momentum heading into this week's finale. Logano has never won at Homestead, but he does have four top-10 finishes in his last five races at the circuit. He'll be battling for a championship this weekend and has had more time than anyone else to make sure he is as prepared as he can be. Logano has risen above his Penske Racing teammates to make it this far in the battle, and anything could happen this week in a winner-take-all format.

Clint Bowyer – A rear tire failure in Phoenix put Bowyer's season on ice for good. Bowyer entered Sunday's race needing to win to keep his championship hopes alive, but heavy contact with the wall after the failure meant he had no chance remaining with more than half of the distance left to run. While Bowyer's season may be over in terms of the championship, he still has plenty to race for in Homestead. He has had a great return to form with Stewart-Haas Racing throughout 2018 and will be hoping to close it out with another top finish. He has three top-fives and six top-10s from 12 career Homestead starts, finishing 12th last year in his first outing at the circuit with his current team.

Kurt Busch – Busch was penalized in the second stage of Sunday's race for passing the pace car under caution, which ultimately caused the dominoes to fall that knocked him out of championship contention. He was entering pit road but accelerated ahead of the pace car as he entered, which drew the ire of officials. Busch was dropped from the lead car to a lap behind for the restart, putting him in a deep hole to overcome to remain in championship contention. Busch was the first NASCAR champion under the Chase format, which was also the year he won his only race at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Busch has only finished in the top 10 once in his last five races in the Florida finale, and he won't win a second title this week either.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez has just one race to audition for full-time employment in the Cup series beyond 2018. His effort in Phoenix resulted in a DNF with significant damage to his car and prospects for a future ride in the series. The announcement that Truex would join Joe Gibbs Racing in 2019 made official the news every fantasy owner expected once pieces started to fall in place in the driver market for the coming season. If Suarez does have opportunities to drive next season, they haven't yet been made public, and each race continues to be an audition for his future. Phoenix wasn't a race to impress future employers. Suarez has one opportunity remaining in 2018 to prove his worth, and he'll have to outperform his 34th-place finish from last season to do so.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Bubba Wallace – Wallace walked away with a nice top-10 finish in last week's penultimate race. The Richard Petty Motorsports driver has had an up and down season but may be capping it off with some momentum as the final race looms. Wallace has yet to race at Homestead in the Cup series but was 11th there in 2017 as he raced for Roush Fenway Racing in the Xfinity series. The young driver has had plenty of ups and downs the past two seasons, but it will be interesting to see what he can accomplish with some stability at RPM. The team certainly had some days to be proud of in 2018, but can they increase those instances in 2019? They have one race remaining in 2018 and all of the ensuing offseason to make the moves that can make that a tangible prospect.