DFS KBO: Thursday Cheat Sheet

The offenses of the Bears and Wiz exploded against a pair of likely playoff teams Wednesday, scoring 14 and 11 runs, respectively, against Heroes and Twins. Those lineups naturally provided more than their fair share of strong stacks, with Jose Fernandez's five hits and four runs standing out as one of the best performances of the year. Elsewhere, the Tigers narrowly escaped with a 4-3 victory over the Eagles, needing a three-run rally in the bottom of the ninth that was capped by a Ji Wan Na walkoff single. On the pitching side, David Buchanan and Chang Mo Koo rebounded from poor showings in their previous turns in the rotation to pitch two of the best games of the season. Buchanan struck out seven Wyverns while allowing just four hits and one run in a complete game, while Koo allowed two runs in seven innings against the Giants while striking out 11. Thursday's slate could see some more high run totals, with a fairly shallow pool of truly reliable arms taking the hill.

Pitchers

I haven't generally been a Warwick Saupold ($8,500 DraftKings, $23 FanDuel as "Hanwha Starting P") fan this season, as his low strikeout rate and lack of run support from the awful Eagles lineup caps his upside even though he does do a good job keeping runs off the board. He's coming off his two biggest strikeout days of the season, however, whiffing a combined 13 batters over his last two starts against a pair of good lineups in the Dinos and Wiz. With a far easier matchup against the seventh-ranked Tigers' offense in this one, I'm more interested in him than I've been ahead of any of his 10 previous starts this year.

Tae In Won ($7,700 DraftKings, $22 FanDuel as "Samsung Starting P") hasn't been nearly as good as his 2.96 ERA suggests, but he isn't priced as if that number is an accurate reflection of his talent, making him a strong cheap option Thursday against the ninth-ranked Wyverns' lineup. It's taken a .273 BABIP and an 84.1 percent strand rate to get him to that low ERA, as his low 14.2 percent strikeout rate and merely average 8.6 percent walk rate are both within a percentage point of his numbers from his rookie season last year, where his ERA came in at an unremarkable 4.82. He doesn't look to be a whole lot better than mediocre, but that's all he'll need to be against a Wyverns team that has scored just two runs in its last four games.

Dan Straily ($10,000 DraftKings, $28 FanDuel as "Lotte Starting P") has far more downside than a player typically has at his price point, as he's facing a dominant Dinos lineup, but he's been so good for most of this season that there's a strong argument for fitting him in anyway. He's coming off one of his worst starts of the year, as he gave up four runs in 7.1 against a mediocre Lions team while striking out just three, but that doesn't seem to be part of a larger trend, as he struck out 12 Heroes in eight innings in his previous start while allowing just a pair of runs. A pitcher who ranks fourth in ERA (2.43), third in WHIP (1.03) and second in strikeout rate (26.1 percent) deserves consideration regardless of his matchup.

Top Targets

Baek Ho Kang ($5,200 DraftKings, $16 FanDuel) has been somewhat overshadowed by his teammate Mel Rojas, who's the likely MVP favorite at this point, but he's been having quite a campaign himself. Despite missing 14 games due to a wrist injury, he's tied for fifth in the league with 11 homers after going deep Wednesday. His overall .328/.412/.656 slash line would be excellent for anyone, let alone a player who's still just 20 years old. He'll get the platoon advantage against Twins righty Casey Kelly, who's been better than his 5.12 ERA would suggest but not by a particularly large margin.

21-year-old Jung Hoo Lee ($4,500 DraftKings, $14 FanDuel) is Kang's biggest competition for the title of best young hitter in the KBO. He doesn't have nearly Kang's power, though his seven homers on the season already represent a career high. He's among the best contact hitters in the league, however, as his .365 batting average ranks fourth among qualified hitters while his 6.8 percent strikeout rate ranks third. He'll get the platoon advantage against Bears righty Jong Gi Park, who has a strong 2.81 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP this season, though those numbers have come in a tiny sample of just 16 innings.

Bargain Bats

At 38 years old, Dae Ho Lee ($3,800 DraftKings, $10 FanDuel) is nearly as old as Kang and Lee combined. He clearly has plenty left in the tank, though, as he's hitting .316/.413/.529 on the season. He saw his home-run total drop from 37 in 2018 to 16 last year, though that seemed to be as much a product of the dejuiced ball than of his age. His two homers Tuesday gave him nine for the year, putting him on pace for 27.6 over a full season. He'll face Dinos righty Jae Hak Lee, who's struggled to a 5.60 ERA this season.

Eun Won Jung ($4,300 DraftKings, $8 FanDuel) only fits into this category on FanDuel, but his cheap price on that site makes this one of the rare occasions in which it might be a good idea to roster an Eagle. Jung's .272/.362/.383 season slash line hardly jumps off the page, though it's enough to make him the Eagles' leader in OPS among qualified hitters. The 20-year-old has been quite hot lately, though, hitting .400/.514/.633 over his last eight games. With the platoon advantage against Tigers righty Min Woo Lee, who may be better than his 5.12 ERA suggests but is certainly not an intimidating opponent, he looks like a solid budget play.

Stacks To Consider

Bears vs. Young Gun Jo: Jose Fernandez ($6,000 DraftKings, $17 FanDuel), Jae Il Oh ($4,100 DraftKings, $15 FanDuel), Jae Hwan Kim ($5,600 DraftKings, $16 FanDuel)

Jo hasn't been used as a true starter this season, averaging just 3.5 innings across his five starts. He certainly hasn't done enough to suggest he should pitch deeper in games, as his numbers are very poor across the board. He owns a 6.87 ERA and a 1.96 WHIP, numbers that are hardly a surprise given his 9.1 percent strikeout rate and 14.8 percent walk rate. He's likely to be in well over his head against the second-ranked Bears' lineup, a unit which has scored double-digit runs three times in the last seven games. The Heroes do have a strong bullpen, though the relievers they're likely to bring in when Jo inevitably leaves in the third or fourth inning won't be their best.

The dominant trio of left-handed bats at the heart of the Bears' order is all healthy and producing, so I'll recommend the full group here for the first time in quite a while. Fernandez leads the stack. His .303/.375/.424 slash line in June was disappointing compared to his incredibly lofty standards, but he sure started July on the right foot, going 5-for-5 with a homer and four runs scored. He'd been picking things up late in June, too, as he's now hitting .516 with zero strikeouts in his last eight games.

Oh follows Fernandez out of the number three spot. A pair of absences due to side injuries have limited him to just 33 games this season, but he's been excellent when available, hitting .359/.427/.602. He's been on fire in his last five contests, going 10-for-21 with a homer and four RBI. The first baseman's overall numbers are undoubtedly inflated by a .426 BABIP, but he has a long track record as a strong hitter and can afford to see his numbers fall off quite a bit while remaining an effective bat.

Kim wraps up this trio, hitting out of the cleanup spot. He's had a dramatically varying season thus far, posting a 1.371 OPS in his first eight games, followed by a .548 OPS over his next 27 contests. He's suddenly returned to form over his last 12 games, hitting .381/.536/.643, good for a 1.179 OPS. His key spot in one of the KBO's best lineups has helped him to a league-leading 47 RBI even with that extended poor stretch, and he should have the chance to add a few more to his tally against Jo.

Lions vs. Geon Wook Lee: Ja Wook Koo ($4,800 DraftKings, $10 FanDuel), Sang Su Kim ($5,200 DraftKings, $8 FanDuel), Seong Gon Lee ($2,800 DraftKings, $FanDuel)

Lee may have a 2.78 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP through six starts and two relief appearances this season, but there's little reason to trust that number. For starters, he's a 25-year-old who'd thrown a total of two innings prior to this year in a league in which top pitchers typically break through in their early twenties or even late teens. More importantly, though, his underlying numbers simply don't back up his strong results. It's taken a .213 BABIP and an 81.2 percent strand rate to get him to that strong ERA, as he's struck out just 16.5 percent of opposing batters while walking 13.5 percent. In his five starts in the month of June, he recorded a very poor 14:16 K:BB.

The Lions lineup is somewhat thin at the moment, lacking both Tyler Saladino (back) and Hak Ju Lee (neck), but there are enough options at the top of the lineup to make this stack worthwhile against an unimpressive pitcher in the league's most hitter-friendly park. Koo is the lone Lion who'd be quite interesting even under considerably worse circumstances, however. He's having a strong all-around season, hitting .322 with five homers and seven steals in 30 games. He's hit second in each of the first two games of this series, going 3-for-8 with a pair of doubles, two RBI and three runs.

Leadoff man Kim costs more than I'd like on DraftKings (though his eligibility at second and third base does help justify his price), but he's a very interesting option on FanDuel given the matchup here. His lack of power caps his upside, as he's yet to homer this season and has never slugged better than .417 in any of his 12 KBO seasons, but his strong on-base skills should give him the chance to score multiple runs with Lee on the mound. Pairing Kim's 12.1 percent walk rate with Lee's 13.5 percent mark should mean Lee gets on base a handful of times in this one, and his six steals give him the chance to add value even if his teammates fail to knock him in.

I don't necessarily have much faith in what Seung Gon Lee has done of late, but for the cheapest possible price on FanDuel, I'm willing to take a shot that he'll remain hot for at least one more game. Lee is a 28-year-old who's received just 60 plate appearances prior to this season, but he's moved up to the third or fourth spot in recent games, due not just to the Lions' injuries but also to his performances, which have been quite good, as he's hitting .378/.385/.595 with two homers in a tiny sample of 39 plate appearances. His .429 BABIP and complete lack of track record cast plenty of doubt on those numbers, but his platoon advantage, matchup, lineup spot and park all add up to someone worth taking a low-risk flyer on.