Joe Pavelski
Joe Pavelski
35-Year-Old Right WingRW
Dallas Stars
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The Sharks had a number of tough decisions to make this offseason in terms of their pending free agents, and ultimately decided to sign Erik Karlsson to a blockbuster deal rather than retain their long-time captain in Pavelski. The 35-year-old pivot will be playing for just the second team of his 13-year NHL career in 2019-20 after signing a three-year, $21 million contract with the Stars on July 1. Even at 34 years old, Pavelski showed that he still has plenty left in the tank last season, racking up 38 goals and 64 points in 75 games en route to his third consecutive 60-plus-point campaign. The University of Wisconsin product's goal total will likely dip in his first season with Dallas, but there's no reason to believe he won't be able to reach the 60-point threshold for a fourth straight season while also contributing at least 20 points on the power play as a member of the Stars' No. 1 unit. Father Time will catch up with Pavelski eventually, but fantasy owners can draft him with confidence as a high-end secondary option this season. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a three-year, $21 million contract with the Stars in July of 2019.
Notches pair of helpers
RWDallas Stars
November 14, 2019
Pavelski provided two assists, three shots on goal and two PIM in Thursday's 4-2 win over the Canucks.
ANALYSIS
Pavelski set up the Stars' last two goals, scored by Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov. The 35-year-old center is up to 12 points (five goals, seven helpers) in 20 contests this season. He's produced consecutive multi-point outings, and three in his last seven games -- Pavelski may be heating up after a slow adjustment to his new team.
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2019–20 Time On Ice Stats
  • Average Time On Ice:
    18:16
  • Average Power Play TOI:
    2:54
  • Average Short-Handed TOI:
    1:10
 
Ice Time
Power Play
Short-Handed
2017–18
19:15
3:12
0:17
2018–19
19:03
2:57
0:43
2019–20
18:16
2:54
1:10
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Stars Power Play Depth Chart
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
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Pavelski enjoyed yet another highly productive campaign in 2017-18, racking up 22 goals and 66 points while firing 224 shots on net in 82 contests. The 12-year veteran may not still possess the 75-point upside he had a few seasons ago, but at 34-years-old he remains a near-lock for 65-plus points on an annual basis. The University of Wisconsin product will once again center the Sharks' first line and top power-play unit in 2018-19 and will undoubtedly be a key member of countless championship fantasy squads as San Jose makes another run at Lord Stanley's Cup.
The former Wisconsin Badger began the 2016-17 campaign scoring at a rate that would have matched his 2015-16 totals of 38 goals, 40 assists, and 78 points, but he hit a rough patch down the stretch, notching just one goal and four assists in the final 12 games of the season. The captain’s struggled followed him into the postseason, where he went scoreless in four of six games. Such a drop off in production for a player as consistent as Pavelski, who had produced three straight seasons of at least 30 goals and 70 points leading up to 2016-17, makes one wonder if he was dealing with an undisclosed malady during his dry spell. Pavelski has been an extremely durable player, dressing for 457 of 458 games over the last six campaigns, but turned 33 during the offseason and has already put a ton of hard miles on his body. Coupling skill and grit as well — if not better — than any other player in the NHL, Little Joe will undoubtedly produce at an above-average pace, but 2017-18 could mark the season where he slips from his perch as one of hockey’s truly elite forwards.
Thanks to San Jose's playoff run that ended two wins shy of their first Stanley Cup, Pavelski (14 goals and 23 points in 24 postseason games) should now officially be a household name. With 38 goals (including 12 on the power play and 11 game-winners), 40 assists and a dazzling plus-25 rating in 2015-16 -- not to mention a combined 116 tallies over the last three seasons -- Pavelski has deserved to be included among the game's elite goal-scorers for a while but is just now getting the credit he deserves. Not only that, but with three consecutive 70-plus-point seasons in his pocket in tandem with a combined plus-60 rating and 710 shots on goal, "Little Joe" has emerged as one of the game's best all-around players. Together with fellow sniper Logan Couture, future hall-of-fame playmaker Joe Thornton and superstar blueliner Brent Burns, Pavelski is a key cog in one of the most lethal offenses in the league, including on the power play where they converted at a rate of 22.5 percent last year, third in the league behind Anaheim and Chicago. There's nothing to suggest that the boys in the Bay Area will take their collective foot off the pedal in 2016-17, so the conditions look better than ever for the Wisconsin native to crack the 80-point plateau for the first time in what will be his 11th NHL season.
While Pavelski didn't quite replicate the nearly point-per-game pace of his breakout 2013-14 campaign last year, it's awfully hard to complain about 37 goals and 70 points, with 31 of those points coming on the power play for the second consecutive season. The advanced metrics love him too -- he finished sixth in team-adjusted Corsi, meaning that the Sharks tend to possess the puck a whole lot more when he's on the ice. He hasn't missed a game in the last four seasons, and only Alex Ovechkin and Steven Stamkos have scored more goals in the last three. In short, you can hardly do better as far as a prime mover for your fantasy offense.
Can you say breakout? Pavelski's offensive explosion delivered him his first 40-goal season. His 41 goals ranked third in the NHL and his 79 points ranked eighth. Most impressively, his 16 power-play goals ranked second in the league. Little Joe became elite last season and he should stay that way. His advanced stats reveal a player who doesn't look like he's going to regress. He's on the ice for 60.7 percent of San Jose's power play time in games he's playing in, and his possession numbers are fantastic. It won't take long for fans to be saying, “Jumbo who?” He'll go early in every draft, and deservedly so.
Pavelski finished last season with 31 points in 48 games, a decent tally but a little under his historical scoring pace. But interestingly, Pavelski scored on 12.3 percent of his shots last year, which was his best shooting percentage since his rookie season. And he also tied his career-high for game-winning goals at five in this shortened season. It's clear the Sharks depend on his leadership and contributions, and he’ll continue to get significant time in important situations like the power play (he had 10 points on the PP last season) and in the last minute of play. Quite honestly, there are few players who are as good under pressure. We like Pavelski and would love to have him on our team.
Little Joe is the motor that runs the Sharks. He's a brilliant leader, a league leader in face-off efficiency, an irritating checker and a consistent 60-point scorer. He doesn't pound guys the way Dustin Brown or David Backes do, but he has a lot of similarities among the three when it comes intangibles. Last season, he co-led the Sharks in goals (31) with Logan Couture and he led the team in shots with 269, a number good enough for 16th in the entire league. He's near his ceiling, but that's okay -- 30 goals and 65 points, year in and year out, are perfectly fine with us. Particularly with the contributions that come in special teams points. You cannot go wrong with Little Joe on your team.
Nobody who donned a teal sweater sent more shots on goal than Pavelski (282) last season, though it did result in the worst shooting percentage of his five-year career. Still, he ended up with 20 goals and often created mismatches as Team Teal's superior depth allowed him to spend plenty of time on the third line, a spot typically reserved for checking specialists. Pavelski is a smart player capable of sparking different lines, though he's expected to re-join the top six with Devin Setoguchi now playing for Minnesota. After setting career highs in assists (46), points (66), and power-play goals (11), the Big Pavelski's fantasy value has never been higher.
Last season could very well prove to be a turning point in Pavelski's career - for the better. Not only did the shifty 5-foot-11 center register his second consecutive 25-goal season, but he posted three assists for Team USA and excelled on the world stage during the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Also, in the summer of 2010, Pavelski hit pay dirt with a four-year, $16 million contract. The bottom line? If you're seeking a consistent forward who will go for 50-plus points, Pavelski is your guy.
The former Wisconsin Badger might posses the moniker, "Little Joe," but his consistent play results in large dividends for fantasy owners, especially those who nab him towards the later drafts rounds. While it's true that Pavelski generally finishes with more assists than goals, he offers plenty of production as both a playmaker and goal scorer. Remember, he's only 23 years old, and capable of exceeding his robust totals from 2008-09, which included 59 points (25G, 34A) in 80 games.
Consistency is the name of the game for Pavelski. He has decent speed, though few can match his wizardry in handling the puck, a skill that has become extremely beneficial during shootouts (7 shootout goals out of 11 chances). The American was also dominant in the '07-08 playoffs, sinking five goals and setting up four. It's reasonable to expect a significant rise in terms of his fantasy value, especially if the team improves as a whole and lends him a hand.
The kid knows two things: winning and scoring. In 2005-06 he led the Wisconsin Badgers in points with 56 (23 goals and 33 assists) in 43 games, on en route to a National Championship. Playing for the Worcester Sharks at the beginning of the 2006-07 he registered 26 points in 16 games. Upon his arrival in San Jose, Pavelski lit the lamp four times in his first five games, and ended the season with 28 points (14 goals and 14 assists) in 46 games played. Pavelski will get the chance to play on a line with either Marleau or Thornton, and is worthy of consideration for a middle-round draft pick.
After a stellar two years at the University of Wisconsin, Pavelski will likely spend a couple of years in the minors before making the jump to the NHL.
More Fantasy News
Leads Stars in win
RWDallas Stars
November 13, 2019
Pavelski scored twice in Wednesday's 3-1 win over the Flames.
ANALYSIS
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On modest three-game point streak
RWDallas Stars
November 3, 2019
Pavelski had an assist and two shots on goal in Saturday's 4-1 win over the Canadiens.
ANALYSIS
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Supplies assist
RWDallas Stars
November 1, 2019
Pavelski notched an assist in Friday's 2-1 win over the Avalanche.
ANALYSIS
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Critical in comeback
RWDallas Stars
October 29, 2019
Pavelski scored the game-tying goal and supplied two assists in Tuesday's 6-3 win over the Wild.
ANALYSIS
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Lights lamp on power play
RWDallas Stars
October 21, 2019
Pavelski scored a power-play goal in Monday's 2-1 win over the Senators.
ANALYSIS
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