Frozen Fantasy: Data or the Eye Test?

Data or intuition? Thinking or feeling? With so much info out there, I sometimes wonder how we ever decide anything about our fantasy teams.

Or life, but that's a whole different story.

Fantasy paralysis can be very real. Too much info can stop us from making the right decision at the right time.

But too little – or too much from just one perspective – is dangerous, too.

You need to have one foot firmly in each camp. Why? Because both sides can be wrong when used in isolation.

Take the Bruins. The numbers don't seem to lie. They're the best team in the NHL: 20-3-6 with a plus-35 goal differential. They haven't lost in regulation at home!

They're the second-best at putting goals in the net. And second-best at keeping them out. They're outscoring every other team in the NHL by more than half-a-goal per game.

They look dang good. But there are cracks. Big ones.

Like their PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage) – it's unreasonably high, so there will be regression. No team can keep up a 104.7.

The Bruins are 27th in the NHL in 5-on-5 shot attempts. And top-seven in allowing even-strength shots from the slot. You know – the most-dangerous place on the ice.

Yikes.

Are the Bruins as good as they look right now? No. Are they as precarious as their underlying stats suggest? Not a chance.

You need every input to be successful in fantasy, but too many inputs can create paralysis. Hold on to your best Bruins? Sell high before a potential collapse? Stress about their goaltending?

Only you can make a final decision about how to use all the info. I'll tell you how I'm using it. I'm going to stop being critical of the Bruins and especially Brad Marchand. But I am going to be watching their power play closely.

A drop in effectiveness there and their overall success declines. But I don't care – this is fantasy. I'm going to go trade for some Bruins. Maybe even that Rask guy.

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Alex Chiasson, RW, Edmonton (1 percent Yahoo! owned) – Chiasson has always had talent – he's a big boy with silky mitts and a truly abrasive side. But his NHL career veered quickly toward the latter, despite his offensive upbringing. Lately, Chiasson is being used in a different way – he's skating in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins' spot in the Oil's top six. And being used on the top power play. Man, it looks like a fit. RNH will be back, but right now, you can milk Chiasson for every little point – he's putting up a lot. I sure will.

Joonas Donskoi, LW/RW, Colorado (45 percent Yahoo! owned) – Go see if he's available. Donskoi's ownership is on a rocket – 29 percent overnight at one point this week. And for good reason – he has 23 points in 27 games playing with the Avs' best players. Donskoi has eight points, including three goals, in his last six games. There's no way this guy should be owned in less than half of leagues. Who knows – you might just get lucky.

Lars Eller, C, Washington (14 percent Yahoo! owned) – Second-line center looks good on Eller. No, he's not burning up the score sheet, but he did have five points in eight games heading into Friday night.  He was held off the scoresheet, but still added another 11 faceoff wins. Eller now has 78 of those in his last nine games. If you do a quick stat sort, you'll discover Eller is tied for 10th in the NHL in faceoff wins. He's right up there with Aleksander Barkov and ahead of Patrice Bergeron. That's impressive. Eller will move back to the third line when Nicklas Backstrom fully recovers. But regardless, the Dane is on pace for his best offensive season ever. And he can be a difference maker in leagues that count those FOW.

Brian Elliott, G, Philadelphia (13 percent Yahoo! owned) – Elliott drives me nuts. He teases and then frustrates in somewhat equal amounts. But this year as Carter Hart's partner, Elliott has somehow improved his game. At 34. Who knew? Sure, he lost Thursday night, but he only allowed two goals. And he put up three straight wins prior to that. Elliott has a 2.66 GAA and .915 save percentage, and that's worth sticking on your bench for match-up play. Who knows – maybe he's channeling his inner Curtis McElhinney, the guy who figured out his game later in his career.

Kevin Fiala, LW/RW, Minnesota (7 percent Yahoo! owned) – This is all you need to know. Fiala had just a single point in his first eight games this season. But since then, he's put up 14 in 16 contests and that includes seven in his last seven. Fiala delivered 48 points as a 21-year-old and this looks like the next step forward. Sure, I'd like to see him get more ice time. But with production like this, the Wild will be forced to give it to him. Get on board now.

Brandon Montour, D, Buffalo (5 percent Yahoo! owned) – Montour is an offensive-minded defender who can fire the puck. His game continues to grow, but his rate-limiting factor has always been his decision-making. Montour's game still has a few brain farts in it. But fantasy owners don't care about those as long as he can keep his plus-minus in relative check. He has mid-40s point potential, maybe more. I don't know why he's only owned in five percent of Yahoo! leagues. OK, I do. Montour plays in the land of fires. Who cares? Help is help.

Cayden Primeau, G, Montreal (2 percent Yahoo! owned) – Primeau's star has been on the rise ever since his draft day. It might have been to prove people wrong for letting him slip to the seventh round in 2017. In two short years, Primeau is in the NHL and backing up THE Carey Price. The kid oozes character and talent, and his arrival has seemed to spark Price. Or at least that's what I hope. I missed Primeau in the league where I own Keith Kinkaid, but I'm scooping him in other spots.

Jared Spurgeon, D, Minnesota (22 percent Yahoo! owned) – My timing was bad on Spurgeon this week – I'd put in a claim for him that went through the day he got hurt. But I still think he can help my team when he's back. He has 16 points in 28 games – that's just one behind top dawg Ryan Suter. And he had six points in five games heading into the game he got hurt. Spurgeon put up 43 points last season; he could do the same this year. Stash him in an IR+ spot and wait.

Alex Tuch, LW/RW, Vegas (20 percent Yahoo! owned) – It's taken Tuch a while to shake off the rust from his preseason injury and get back to his old self. But that time has come. Go get him. Now. The power forward is on a four-game, seven-point streak that includes four goals heading into weekend play. His 52-point year in 2018-19 was real… and he was just 22. Tuch's ownership jumped 12 percent overnight at the end of this week. It'll be on a rocket soon, so get on board fast.

Mats Zuccarello, RW, Minnesota (14 percent Yahoo! owned) – The Norwegian Hobbit may finally be getting comfortable in the land of lakes. Thursday night, Zuccarello scored the game winner over the Bolts and set up two others. And that gave him nine points in his last nine games – that's after a paltry seven points in his first 15 outings. Zuccarello averaged 56 points a season for five years prior to 2018-19. And he might have come close to that level if he hadn't busted his arm immediately after last year's trade to Dallas. Pick him up if you can use a mid-50s scorer on the cheap.

Back to the Bruins.

Luck does have a way of running out. Just ask those guys in Tampa Bay about that. Their league-high PDO was 103.8 in 2018-19. Gulp.

Bad luck also has a way of snapping back, too. Hey – maybe the Leafs have a shot after all.

Until next week.