Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
.914
That's Jonathan Quick's save percentage despite winning three consecutive games, a noticeable improvement over his .878 Sv% for the season. The wins are nice, but that save percentage still isn't nearly good enough for me to re-think Quick's value, which continues to decline at an alarming rate. He is owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues, just an increase of two percent entering Sunday, which means nobody is really buying what Quick and the Kings are selling.
26
That's how many faceoffs Bo Horvat won Saturday night against the Avs, losing just six and going 12-for-14 against Nathan MacKinnon and 9-for-10 against Nazem Kadri, perhaps the most dominating performance on draws since Aaron Burr, though I'm pretty sure Horvat still has many years in his young career. It's the highest single-game total and just the third time any player has won 20 or more this season. It also pushes Horvat to the top of the league in faceoffs won, five more than perennial leader Ryan O'Reilly, and he now boasts the second-best percentage (59.5 percent) among those with at least 300 faceoffs taken.
With veterans Brandon Sutter and Jay Beagle sidelined, Horvat is going to basically take every draw for the Canucks, who are now first in the league in faceoff percentage (54.5 percent) after finishing 20th last season. That jump is huge, largely thanks to the Canucks' newly minted captain and J.T. Miller,
Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
.914
That's Jonathan Quick's save percentage despite winning three consecutive games, a noticeable improvement over his .878 Sv% for the season. The wins are nice, but that save percentage still isn't nearly good enough for me to re-think Quick's value, which continues to decline at an alarming rate. He is owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues, just an increase of two percent entering Sunday, which means nobody is really buying what Quick and the Kings are selling.
26
That's how many faceoffs Bo Horvat won Saturday night against the Avs, losing just six and going 12-for-14 against Nathan MacKinnon and 9-for-10 against Nazem Kadri, perhaps the most dominating performance on draws since Aaron Burr, though I'm pretty sure Horvat still has many years in his young career. It's the highest single-game total and just the third time any player has won 20 or more this season. It also pushes Horvat to the top of the league in faceoffs won, five more than perennial leader Ryan O'Reilly, and he now boasts the second-best percentage (59.5 percent) among those with at least 300 faceoffs taken.
With veterans Brandon Sutter and Jay Beagle sidelined, Horvat is going to basically take every draw for the Canucks, who are now first in the league in faceoff percentage (54.5 percent) after finishing 20th last season. That jump is huge, largely thanks to the Canucks' newly minted captain and J.T. Miller, and in fantasy leagues that count faceoffs, Horvat is invaluable. It has also opened a door for Adam Gaudette, who has eight points in 11 games this season, to play a bigger role. On a team in need of more depth offense, Gaudette's an intriguing option in deeper leagues.
19
That's the number of points Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl scored in three games this week. Pfft … what??? And they did that averaging LESS ice time per game than their season average. In case you're wondering, neither the Hart Trophy nor the Ted Lindsay have ever been shared by two players.
15
That's how many goals the Leafs allowed last week, the same as the Rangers and the Sens, who played one more game. This is a concerning development for a team that had Cup aspirations and overhauled half their defense, finishing the week with zero wins, with Nashville and Calgary sharing the dubious honor. They weren't very good defensively last season and Frederik Andersen routinely faces a lot of shots, so when he's not on his A-game, the Leafs barely stand a chance. The Leafs now embark on a four-game road trip that features a tough defensive squad (Arizona), and three teams (Detroit, Colorado, Buffalo) that feature elite scorers (Larkin line, MacKinnon, Eichel). The wins that Andersen promised fantasy owners now don't seem that valuable with average save percentage and GAA numbers, and now may be a good time for fantasy owners to see what they can get for him.
13
That's how many starts MacKenzie Blackwood has made this season through 19 games. John Hynes said at the beginning of the season that he doesn't like time shares, and true to his word, Cory Schneider started just one game in November. The Devils aren't good, but Blackwood has shown that he can get hot, and he's owned in 41 percent of Yahoo leagues and just 9.4 percent of ESPN leagues. In fantasy leagues that count saves, Blackwood's ownership numbers should be much higher as the Devils' undisputed No. 1. The Devils waived Schneider on Monday and brought up Louis Domingue, who was recently acquired from Tampa. Domingue has a .918 Sv% in four games with AHL Binghamton this season.
8
SONK! That's the number of points Keith Yandle scored last week, three more than any other defensemen. That brings his total now to 18 points in 20 games, 11 of which have come with the man advantage and on pace for 73 points, blowing past his career high of 62 points set last season. In fact, since last season, Yandle has scored 80 points in 102 games, just one of five defensemen above 80 and four more than Roman Josi, who was drafted an average of 61 spots higher than Yandle according to Yahoo's ADP.
Yandle, 33, has aged like fine wine, and while he's still as reliable as a paper bag on a rainy day defensively (sixth in both SAT %/Corsi For % and USAT %/Fenwick For % among Panthers defensemen), he is ninth in CF%, 10th in FF% and sixth in xGF among all defensemen (min. 40 TOI) on the power play this season, according to Natural Stat Trick. His career trajectory is reminiscent of former Panther-Lightning-Ranger-Shark Dan Boyle, who didn't reach his peak until his mid-30s. Yandle is a hold, not a sell-high option, in most standard leagues.
6
That's how many even-strength points William Karlsson and Tomas Tatar scored last week to lead the league. For Karlsson, it's a nice return to form and he now has 20 points in 21 games this season. Was his 78-point season in Vegas' inaugural season the anomaly or was it the 56-point campaign last season? Whatever the case, his shooting percentage is above average, and he remains a solid fantasy play.
The more curious case is Tatar, who is scoring at a point-per-game pace, and the Habs are also scoring at their highest rate (3.50 GF/GP) since the 1986-87 (!) season. Part of it has been the explosion of offense the last few seasons, but they're doing it without an elite scorer, and only one Hab (Max Domi last season) has scored over 70 points in a season in the cap era. I'm not buying any Tatar stock, but it's interesting to note that his career shooting percentage is quite good (13.0%), his career possession numbers are excellent (56.1 CF%), and he's on pace to record 221 shots, which would be just the second time he's cracked 200 in his career. He came one goal shy of 30 that season (2014-15) and he might hit that milestone this season. His lack of ice time (15:50 TOI/GP) will hold him back, but so far, he's been excellent. The Habs announced Monday morning Jonathan Drouin will undergo wrist surgery and Paul Byron is expected to be miss time as well. That means a potentially bigger role for Tatar, though not having Drouin will be a blow to their offense.
0.0
That's Taylor Hall's shooting percentage the last two weeks in seven games on 30 shots, which were fifth most in the league. The 28-year-old has not scored since Nov. 2, and through 19 games sits on just two goals and a career-low 2.9 shooting percentage. Conventional wisdom suggests Hall will get back on track soon; according to Natural Stat Trick, he's third on the team in CF%, second in xGF and first in high-danger chances. However, we've seen cold streaks last an entire season … James Neal, anyone?
The problem is that the Devils as a team just aren't good; according to HockeyViz, they're an astonishing 13 percent below the league average in unblocked shot rates at even strength, not to mention that young centers Jack Hughes, 18, and Nico Hischier, 20, are still trying to find ways to be consistent every night. Hall is an impending UFA and it might be his only chance to cash in on a big long-term deal, but that seems more unlikely with each passing game. The Devils aren't a reliable fantasy option, and by extension that makes Hall's fantasy value as low as it's ever been. Buy low if you're bullish on the Devils and believe the underlying stats, but know that this team is unlikely to turn it around this season.
