NHL Waiver Wire: Coming Attractions

The playoffs are only days away, but let's first look ahead to next season.  While this column doesn't technically cover waiver transactions, the same practices of following trends and predicting statistics can be applied.

A few players couldn't sufficiently contribute this year either because they lost time due to injury, struggled with significant slumps, or weren't provided enough opportunities. Regardless of the circumstances behind these dropoffs, some should recover. 

Meanwhile, other overachievers will either decline due to age, a projected situation downgrade, or simply because they've performed well beyond expectations. Circumstances may change in the coming months, but there is sufficient rationale to stay away from certain players this fall.

For both sets, we're staying away from superstars. Here's a selection of those to watch and avoid for 2019-20.

Primed for Progress

Nikolaj Ehlers, F, WPG

A 20-game absence prevented Ehlers from recording 60 points in three consecutive seasons, but a current run of two goals and an assist over 13 games – and a drop to the third line – cast doubts regarding his potential.  The Dane is only 23, so there's plenty of room to grow.  If Ehlers can effectively score in the playoffs, then he can start the next campaign with confidence.

Casey Mittelstadt, F, BUF

For someone so highly touted, it's hard to believe Mittelstadt has performed poorly.  He was utilized somewhat heavily early on, but the positive results appeared sporadically.  The minutes eventually decreased to possibly alleviate the pressure, but that experiment never panned out.  Mittelstadt obviously needs a couple months off to recharge and refocus and be allowed to play his own game.  Fortunately, the Sabres can accommodate the longer layoff after crashing out of contention following a promising start.

Filip Chytil, F, NYR

Chytil may have been the Rangers' second first-round selection in 2017, but he's getting significantly more opportunities than Lias Andersson – who was taken 14 picks earlier.  The Czech under-18 champ began to earn results as a winger, but has recently spent time as the Rangers' second center.  Chytil is clearly part of the organization's future, but you may want to monitor their offseason activities to see if any notable competition is brought in.

Drake Batherson, F, OTT

When Batherson arrived in November and notched five points in his first three NHL outings, many believed he could continue a respectable pace at the top level.  But a string of scoreless showings only earned the 20-year old a return trip to the minors.  Batherson has directed his motivation by punishing AHL defenses with an amazing 58 points through 54 appearances.  If that type of dominance doesn't land you a regular role on a rebuilding franchise, then something's not right with that franchise.

Ivan Provorov, D, PHI

After 17 goals and 24 assists during his sophomore season, Provorov has seen his total slip by 15.  But there's hope for the young Russian, who's got an opportunity to bounce back.  Shayne Gostisbehere has also taken an offensive hit and will never be counted upon to play responsibly at the other end, which will only lead to added opportunities for Provorov – along with fellow Philly early-20s D-man Travis Sanheim.

Dennis Cholowski, D, DET

Cholowski made the Wings' opening night roster and went on to register eight points – including six on the man-advantage – in his first 11 games.  Even though he added three PPGs, the rest of the schedule proved painful for the WHL scoring machine as he only counted in seven of the next 41 and was subsequently demoted.  With Detroit's leading blueliners aging and hobbling, there's room for up-and-comers like Cholowski and Filip Hronek to prove they can handle the NHL grind.

Thatcher Demko, G, VAN

There's a reason the Canucks picked Demko with the 36th pick in 2014, and it's not for his cool-sounding name.  The 6-foot-4 Californian was assumed to take over the Canucks' goaltending duties at some point, but Jacob Markstrom exceeded expectations.  Demko has done as much as he possibly could in the AHL, while looking more comfortable in his last two appearances. And with Markstrom turning 30 in January, the new guy should be given the lead role soon enough.

Adjustment Period Ahead

Cam Atkinson, F, CLS

The 41-goal man has shattered all previous personal bests, earning an All-Star spot along the way.  Columbus' front line looks fearsome, but that could change in the summer.  With linemate Artemi Panarin most likely leaving town, Atkinson will find it difficult to recreate similar numbers unless someone with comparable talent can replace the dynamic star.

Elias Lindholm, F, CGY

Lindholm has always possessed the talent, but it had never manifested on the scoresheet in a major way.  That is, until this year and his 78 points – including 26 on the power play.  Looks like he's hit a bit of a wall lately, but so have other prominent teammates.  The Swede's outlook may hinge on how he handles this postseason, but it seems doubtful another 70 or 80-point effort will ever happen again.

Ryan O'Reilly, F, STL

St. Louis targeted O'Reilly to improve their power play and faceoff percentages, but they probably never imagined him to lap the team in scoring.  With 27 goals and 47 assists, the 2009 Colorado draftee has solidified his place as the Blues' No. 1 center.  O'Reilly has generally produced in the mid-50s to low-60s over his career, so there's bound to be correction down the road.  And if Robert Thomas moves back from the wing, he'll be groomed as Vladimir Tarasenko's prime pivot.

Tomas Tatar, F, MON

The move to Montreal has worked well for Tatar, to the tune of a career-high 58 points as a regular on the top line.  And the Slovak has kept it going with the Habs fighting for a wild-card berth, but there's enough evidence to claim this won't last for the long haul.  Tatar's stats fell during his time with Detroit and a brief Vegas stint couldn't reverse his fortunes.  The former second-rounder may not be playing for a new contract, but it's tough to foresee him reaching comparable numbers anytime soon.

Jacob Trouba, D, WPG

It only took six years for Trouba to make due on his high draft selection, but he's taken advantage of Dustin Byfuglien's multiple injuries to post a whopping 48 points.  But with Big Buff back in the fold, look for the Michigander to once again take a backseat in attack.  Trouba will eventually return to the Jets' backup power-play unit – or perhaps no participation at all.  And that translates into him serving as a more valuable skater in real life than in your lineup.

Ryan McDonagh, D, TB

This column discussed McDonagh as a possible 2019 letdown candidate in late December.  And while his stats slightly slipped since, he's maintained the characteristics of a solid fantasy defenseman.  Even with a heavy workload, the ex-Ranger will soon be 30 and doesn't see many minutes when the opposition is in the box.  Mikhail Sergachev has also been rounding back into 2017-18 form with three recent multi-point contributions and time with Tampa's main man-advantage, making McDonagh a potential fantasy liability.

Mike Smith, G, CGY

With plenty of postseason experience, Smith could receive the nod to start Game 1 over David Rittich.  And even if the veteran pulls off an amazing run, the Czech remains the obvious long-term option.  Smith is 37, while Rittich is 26.  Both will become free agents, but the former is a UFA who makes $5 million and the latter is an RFA who earns a mere $800,000 – but will command a sizable raise.  The younger netminder should be rewarded for his superior performance this season, leaving Smith to look for work elsewhere.