Weekly PGA Preview: Sanderson Farms Championship

Sanderson Farms Championship

Country Club of Jackson
Jackson, MS

The PGA Tour heads to Jackson, MS this week as the Sanderson Farms Championship gets underway. Unlike the past several years, this is not the start of the new season, this is more like an extension of the current season in that there are still plenty of players out there battling to keep their cards for 2024. Before we get to that however, a few words on the Ryder Cup. It shouldn't amaze me any longer, but after all these years, it still does and that's the overreaction to every win or loss that the either of these teams face. Two years ago, it was gloom and doom for the Europeans, with Scottie Scheffler coming into his own and the likes of JT, Xander and Spieth in their primes, how would team Europe ever win another Ryder Cup? We got the answer this past weekend of course, they simply played better. Now it's time to panic with the Americans, they're the worst team ever, all the decisions made, from captain's picks to pairing were wrong! Why can't it be that Europe simply played better and that, surprise, the home field advantage is absolutely huge in this contest? I think I know the answer and it's that this competition is held only every two years, so we have to hyper analyze everything. We've had the past year to look forward to this event and now we have to wait another two years for the next one, there's not much to do but look back at what could have been. As for two years from now, we can speculate all we want, but what we think it will look like and what it will actually be will likely be two very different things. Now, onto this week and the rest of the season, I'd offer this advice, expect the unexpected, especially now that this portion of the season no longer counts towards next season. I don't think we are going to see the big names as often and I don't think they're going to play as well as they have over the past few years when we do see them. The motivation isn't there any longer, this portion of the season is all about getting to the finish line for most of them, there are no points to accumulate for 2024 this fall. That however will open the door for the lower-level players, so expect to see some new names atop the leader board over the next couple months.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 3:00 PM ET Wednesday.

LAST YEAR

Mackenzie Hughes shot a final-round 69 on his way to a playoff victory over Sepp Straka.

FAVORITES

Ludvig Aberg (11-1)

Well, that didn't take long, the next big thing is already a favorite on the PGA Tour. There are two schools of thought here. The first is that Aberg is uber-talented and he's going to take the PGA Tour by storm. The second is that he's coming off a Ryder Cup hangover and he's not quite ready to be in this spot, as a favorite this early in his career. I'm leaning towards the latter but wouldn't be surprised by the former. I love his prospects for this season and beyond, but the odds feel a little light.                                    

Stephan Jaeger (18-1)

Well, that was a precipitous drop off. No offense to Jaeger, but I really didn't expect to see him listed as the second-favorite at a PGA Tour event this season, but here we are. Jaeger was highly touted as a rookie a couple years ago but failed to live up to those expectations. He's since improved his game to the point where he can contend at an event like this. With that said, I'm not seeing the value here.                                                                               

Eric Cole (18-1)

Cole is not a big name on the PGA Tour...yet, but he's coming off a really productive season. Hmm, I think I'm still getting used to this new extension of the season, he's not coming off a productive season, he's still in the same season. Anyway, Cole has shown a lot of promise this year and I'm expecting him to have a solid fall season. At this number, there's enough value to think about making a play.                                                                         

THE NEXT TIER

Keith Mitchell (28-1)

This is where we are with this event. Almost every player directly following the favorites has a terrible track record, yet since the field is so thin, these guys have much lower odds than they should. With that said, I'm picking out the one guy who I think can overcome his poor record here and that's Mitchell, who runs as hot and cold as just about anyone on the PGA Tour.                          

Lucas Herbert (30-1)

It's the fall season and this is not a signature event, so we're forced to look at guys who haven't previously won on the PGA Tour. Herbert hasn't won in the states, but he did win in Japan earlier this year and winning breeds confidence, so perhaps that will translate to the PGA Tour at some point. Herbert proved to be very streaky this season, so hopefully he gets hot this week and maybe finds his first PGA Tour win.                               

Garrick Higgo (40-1)

He doesn't have a ton of course history and it was just one start, but he played awfully well here this past year on his way to a solo third. There are two trends with the players on this list, one is that they're the best we can find in such a weak field and the other is that most of these guys run really hot and cold. Higgo won early in his rookie season but failed to back it up the following year. This current season however, he's set a career high in earnings already.

LONG SHOTS

Cameron Champ (80-1)

Champ has teased us with his talent over the past five years, but on the whole, he hasn't lived up to expectations. With that said, he's the kind of golfer that can pop up and win any given week. I know, any golfer can win any given week, but it's a little different with Champ as his highs and lows are a bit more extreme. Champ actually won this event in 2018 but has only played here once since that win. He's the perfect long shot, high upside, great odds, why not take a shot?

Sam Bennett (150-1) 

I'm not saying he's going to win, but anytime you can get a talent like this at astronomical odds you have to take it. Bennett has not lived up to the hype that stemmed from his Masters performance, but now that he's got a handful of events under his belt, I'm expecting him to settle in a bit and start playing like we all expect him too. Whether he wins this week or not, he's going to start playing better soon and your chance at getting triple-digit odds are going to leave shortly.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-chosen Pick: Ludvig Aberg - While I don't feel the odds are right for a win bet, Aberg is obviously a good choice in the OAD format. Now, there's a risk in using him this early, especially the week after the Ryder Cup, but perhaps playing this past weekend will give him an edge over most of his competition as the PGA Tour has staged just one event over the past month.

Moderately-chosen Pick: Eric Cole - I'm not quite sure what to think of Cole. He had a very nice season, but it came a bit out of nowhere, so is he going to fade next season or possibly this fall? I don't think any potential fade will happen in 2023, so I think we're safe for now and that's all that matters this week.

Lightly-chosen Pick: Cameron Champ - Why not take a shot, right? If you are playing in a OAD, you're likely at the end of your season and Champ is a guy that you probably haven't used yet. Champ also has a ton of upside up against a field of guys without that much upside, so if everything clicks, he could find another win.

Buyer Beware: Ludvig Aberg - This is unprecedented as far as I can recall in that I've never had a player listed here after touting him in other spots, but since there are simply no other players that qualify, Aberg is here by default. I did mention earlier that there are reasons to be cautious this week, so it's not a gimmie that he plays well this week but I expect him to.

This Week: Eric Cole - Since we are resetting each week in the fall, I'm going back to Cole this week as he's the best pick all things considered. Cole played well in the first fall event a few weeks ago and he seems to be riding the momentum of a strong season. He did miss the cut here last year, but he's a much better player now than he was 12 months ago.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Eric Cole ($12,000)
Middle Range: Kevin Streelman ($9,900)
Lower Range: Sam Bennett ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Eric Cole - We are resetting each week in this format as well, so with that in mind, Cole is the play. Aberg was considered, but there are a few reasons to be wary of him this week while there aren't any drawbacks to using Cole this week that I can see.