1.  
QB  KC
Pass Att
603
Pass Yds
4877
Pass TD
36
Pass Int
10
YPA
8.1
Rush Att
78
Rush Yds
388
Rush TD
3
Rush Avg
5.0
It didn't take an expert to predict Mahomes would regress from his otherworldly 50/5,000 season of 2018, but Mahomes still had a remarkable season last year. Namely, he was even more lethal downfield last season than in 2018, leading the league in passer rating, touchdowns and TD percentage (min. 30 attempts) on throws longer than 20 yards. He improved his TD rate by 6.6 percentage points (12.2 to 18.8) on deep throws, and his rating jumped by nearly 30 points as he cut his interceptions from sixth most (7) to sixth fewest (2). Overall, Mahomes had 96 fewer attempts thanks to a dislocated knee that cost him two and a half games. Prorated to the 580 attempts he had in 2018, he'd still approach 5,000 yards. The biggest regression was in touchdown passes, largely because of his performance in the red zone. His red-zone TD pass rate fell from 36.5 percent to 19.6, his TD passes from 35 to 11. Considering the league rate last year was 23.2 percent, a healthy Mahomes should do better near the goal line this season. Mahomes also has perhaps the league's best collection of skill players, including a trio of speedy wideouts in Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, while tight end Travis Kelce kills defenders underneath and up the seam. The Chiefs also added first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire, considered the best receiving back in this year's draft. And, of course, aggressive play caller Andy Reid is always willing to take shots and chuck the ball around. In two seasons as starter, Mahomes has a league MVP and a Super Bowl MVP. It shouldn't surprise anyone if he wins either — or both — again this season.
2.  
QB  BAL
Pass Att
445
Pass Yds
3344
Pass TD
26
Pass Int
9
YPA
7.5
Rush Att
152
Rush Yds
985
Rush TD
6
Rush Avg
6.5
The unanimous MVP last year, Jackson had arguably the most dominant season by a QB in NFL history. The rushing production is obvious — QB records for rushing yards (1,206) and rushes of 10-plus yards (47). But Jackson also proved his critics wrong, as his passing was nearly as historic. He threw a league-high 36 TD passes on 401 attempts for an 8.98 TD pass percentage, the highest since 1977, save for Peyton Manning's 2004 season (9.86). What's more, with only six interceptions (1.49 INT percentage), Jackson became one of three QBs in NFL history with a TD pass rate higher than 8.55 and an INT rate lower than 1.50. The others? Tom Brady (2007) and Aaron Rodgers (2011). Jackson's improvement in accuracy saw his completion percentage increase by nearly 10 points from his rookie year, vaulting from bottom 5 to top 10. And his bad-pass percentage went from 24.7, third highest in the NFL, to 19.2 percent, sandwiched between Russell Wilson (19.0) and Rodgers (19.3). Jackson was untouchable in the red zone, throwing 24 TD passes without an INT and a 40.0 TD pass percentage, third highest since 1991. That's bound to regress closer to the league average of 23.2 percent, but perhaps Jackson's overall regression in efficiency will be offset somewhat by increased attempts (401 last season, 26th). And Jackson could lose about 20 rushing yards per game and still finish the season with the third most rushing yards by a QB in league history. The receiving corps looks solid after a promising rookie campaign by Marquise Brown and a breakout season by TE Mark Andrews. RG Marshal Yanda retired, but the line still has standout tackles. Even if regression comes calling, Jackson can afford to take a hit and remain elite.
3.  
QB  DAL
Pass Att
590
Pass Yds
4523
Pass TD
31
Pass Int
10
YPA
7.7
Rush Att
69
Rush Yds
345
Rush TD
3
Rush Avg
5.0
Expectations were high for Prescott entering last season, and he lived up to even the loftiest, finishing second in QB fantasy scoring. His 4,902 passing yards, which fell one yard short of the franchise single-season record, ranked second in the NFL, and he also finished fourth in TD passes (30) and fifth in YPA (8.2). His career year was due in part to refined throwing mechanics, improved footwork and better weight distribution that he said allowed him to get more torque on the ball. That helped him improve his bad-pass percentage to 18.5 (7th), and his 65.1 completion percentage (13th) would have been higher had it not been for a league-leading 43 dropped passes - 7.2 percent, highest among QBs with at least 300 attempts. He also increased his average depth of target by nearly two full yards - 8.0 to 9.9, ranking fourth. After struggling in the red zone in 2018, he improved his TD percentage by nearly 10 points to 26.2, but the Cowboys didn't pass much in the red zone (27th), especially inside the 10 (29th). Perhaps that changes with new head coach Mike McCarthy, though OC Kellen Moore is back for his second season after taking the offense from 22nd to first in yards last season. The dual-threat Prescott again has quality receivers in Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and first-round pick CeeDee Lamb, plus elite RB Ezekiel Elliott. And even with center Travis Frederick retiring, Dallas still has a star-studded O-line. The biggest issue might be Prescott's contract, though his decision to sign a franchise tag suggests he isn't anticipating a holdout.
4.  
QB  ARI
Pass Att
566
Pass Yds
4233
Pass TD
29
Pass Int
14
YPA
7.5
Rush Att
91
Rush Yds
545
Rush TD
4
Rush Avg
6.0
Murray was the runaway Offensive Rookie of the Year last season, becoming the sixth player in NFL history — and second rookie after Cam Newton in 2011 — to surpass 3,500 passing yards and 500 rushing yards. The 2019 first overall pick was the starter from the beginning and didn't seem to be held back by his 5-10 stature. Murray's dual-threat ability helped him finish QB8 in fantasy scoring, as he was second to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards (544) and YPC (5.9) by a quarterback. He also showed mature decision-making, setting an NFL rookie record with 211 consecutive attempts without an interception. Murray's arm proved as strong as advertised too. On attempts longer than 20 yards, he ranked third in the league in both completion percentage (42.6) and YPA (15.5). But the Cardinals didn't regularly try to stretch the field, perhaps due to a lack of weapons. Murray's average depth of target ranked 27th at 7.6 yards, and 55.9 percent of his attempts were no longer than five yards (6th), with a league-high 178 of those targets going to wide receivers. That should change this season with the trade for All-Pro wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who figures to transform the offense. Larry Fitzgerald gives Murray another set of sure hands, and a healthy Christian Kirk should contribute more than he did last season. Plus, Kenyan Drake is a solid receiving threat out of the backfield after the Cardinals dumped David Johnson in the Hopkins deal. How good can Murray be? Well, if he goes 3,500/500 again, he'd be just the third to do it more than once, after the aforementioned Newton and Russell Wilson.
5.  
QB  SEA
Pass Att
534
Pass Yds
4322
Pass TD
33
Pass Int
8
YPA
8.1
Rush Att
67
Rush Yds
333
Rush TD
3
Rush Avg
5.0
Wilson was in the MVP conversation last season before easily being outdistanced by Lamar Jackson. But that shouldn't diminish what he accomplished. Wilson topped 4,000 passing yards for the third time in his career and 30 TD passes for the third consecutive year, finishing QB3 in fantasy. Despite nearly 100 more attempts than the previous season, Wilson was still highly efficient, as his YPA was nearly identical to 2018's (8.1 vs. 8.0), ranking third among QBs with at least 500 attempts. His 66.1 completion percentage was the second highest of his career, and he threw a career-low five interceptions — only Aaron Rodgers had a lower INT percentage (0.7) than Wilson's 1.0. Wilson's deep passing is what truly sets him apart. His 9.7-yard average depth of target ranked fourth (min. 300 attempts), and he was third in passer rating (103.7) on attempts longer than 20 yards (min. 45 attempts). He isn't shy about going downfield, either — 74 attempts longer than 20 yards last season (3rd) and a league-high 221 deep attempts since 2017, 26 more than anyone. That should serve him well again with favorite target Tyler Lockett coming off his first 1,000-yard season. And DK Metcalf, who surpassed expectations as a rookie, should be an even bigger weapon as a sophomore. Newcomer Greg Olsen gives Wilson another reliable target, but the backfield is unsettled with Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny coming off season-ending injuries. Sacks are always a concern — an NFL-record seven straight seasons with at least 40 sacks — but Wilson's scrambling adds to his fantasy output. While his attempts likely won't increase much, his efficiency, deep-ball skills and rushing output make him a safe QB target with upside.
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