ADP Analysis: Peterson Looking Good, Gibson Flying Too High

This week's edition of ADP Analysis compares data from the first five days of August to data from Aug. 8-12. Per usual, our ADP numbers are coming from BB10s.com.

Moving Up ⬆️

• RB Alexander Mattison

RB45, ADP 111.6 ➡ RB42, ADP 104.9

I remain in the minority that isn't fully convinced of Mattison's handcuff value. He was an ordinary prospect coming out of Boise State, and his 4.6 YPC last season was inflated by a few long runs in garbage time. Even I'm wrong about Mike Boone pushing for backup carries, the Dalvin Cook injury scenario doesn't necessarily involve Mattison taking on the full workload. It could easily be Mattison & Boone on a split for early downs, with Ameer Abdullah handling passing downs. Remember that Mattison was targeted only 11 times last year.

Cook comes with more injury risk than Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliott, but that doesn't necessarily make Mattison a better pick than Latavius Murray (RB41) and Tony Pollard (RB45), both of whom would be stronger bets for three-down workloads in the event of an injury to their team's star running back. In terms of the recent ADP bump for Mattison... I don't have any explanation.

• RB Adrian Peterson

RB63, ADP 202.0 ➡ RB52, ADP 149.3

I'm surprised Peterson hasn't moved up more since Derrius Guice was waived, considering the 35-year-old took 251 carries in 2018 and 211 more last season. The 200-250 carry range remains a possibility, but drafters rightfully seem weary, perhaps worrying that new offensive coordinator Scott Turner will put more of an emphasis on pass-catching skill from his running backs. 

That's probably accurate to some extent, but I still think the 13th-round ADP is a little too cheap for someone who figures to see double-digit carries in the season opener. Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic are passing-down specialists who mostly played wide receiver in college, while Peyton Barber simply isn't any good. 

• RB DeAndre Washington

RB57, ADP 179.2 ➡ RB55, ADP 161.2

I guess a KC beat reporter kind of threw water on the idea of CEH stepping right in as a three-down workhorse? As much as I hate to brag (ha), I've been steadily drafting Washington ever since Damien Williams opted out, so I'm mildly annoyed that everyone else is catching on. How sure are you that Edwards-Helaire will get more touches than Washington in Week 1? I mean, I think he will, but I wouldn't want to put a lot of money on it (re: Week 1 DFS).

• RB Bryce Love

RB73, ADP 231.3 ➡ RB67, ADP 216.7

Peterson and Gibson are roster locks, and McKissic's $1 million guarantee puts him not too far behind. Love and Barber thus appear to be competing for a single spot, with no assurance of said role including any involvement in the Week 1 offense. In fact, there's even some chance the Washington Football Team only keeps three running backs, which likely would leave them trying to get Love on the practice squad. 

Anyway, we don't get points for what he does in practice, nor do we get points for what he did at Stanford a few years ago. There are better end-game darts in deep drafts. Some of my personal favorites are Ryquell Armstead (RB60), Chris Thompson (RB62) Giovani Bernard (RB66) and even the aforementioned Mike Boone (RB95).

• RB/WR Antonio Gibson

WR62, ADP 156.7 ➡ WR47, ADP 113.2

There's no doubt Guice's absence frees up backfield snaps, but it doesn't necessarily have any impact on Gibson's Week 1 role. The rookie has barely played running back since high school, and even then he was mostly a receiver. Regardless of whether he's listed as an RB or WR on your preferred fantasy platform, Gibson is far more intriguing for dynasty than for redraft. Peterson is blocking the path to carries, and McKissic is legit competition for passing downs. 

Even if Peterson were to be benched or injured, it might be Love or Barber or someone not currently on the roster who would step in as the lead runner. With Gibson, we're probably talking about kick returns and 5-10 offensive snaps per game in September. That said, I can promise you RotoWire will be keeping a close eye on any info coming out of WFT training camp. After all, guys who ran 4.39 40s at 228 pounds don't grow on trees (they grow in wombs, same as the rest of us).

• WR Henry Ruggs

WR51, ADP 124.9 ➡ WR50, ADP 116.5

First, we saw a report about Ruggs playing the slot, based on a comment from Raiders OC Greg Olson. Now, a report from a beat writer at Raiders training camp suggests Ruggs has mostly been lining up outside, which is what everyone expected all along. Olson may have just meant that Ruggs would get some slot snaps, not that he'd replace Hunter Renfrow as the inside specialist. Whatever the case, positive chatter boosted the rookie's ADP, at least temporarily.

Moving Down ⬇️

• RB Sony Michel

RB41, ADP 101.7 ➡ RB44, ADP 108.5

Michel was a headliner of last week's ADP Analysis, with pessimistic injury updates dropping him out of the top 40 at RB and the top 100 overall. Another week brings another slide, as the Patriots now have Lamar Miller (RB69, ADP 224.1) on their roster. Last week I said Michel would need to fall another round or two before I considered drafting him. Well, this isn't quite far enough to put him on my radar, but maybe we can talk if he drops all the way to the 11/12th-round range?

• RB Derrius Guice

RB32, ADP 77.2 ➡ RB48, ADP 125.4

It feels a little weird to discuss football for someone who was recently arrested for an allegation of a violent crime. Let's just say I wont' be drafting Guice, and leave it at that.

• RB Damien Harris

RB52, ADP 151.8 ➡ RB54, ADP 160.0

The Miller signing apparently outweighs the continued pessimism surrounding Michel, who is uncertain for Week 1. I'm not saying Miller should be totally dismissed, but I will say that he's a 29-year-old RB coming back from an ACL tear, and he wasn't all that good before the injury. There's a real chance Miller misses out on the roster (or is simply kept as a healthy scratch) even if Michel isn't ready for Week 1, but we'd still be talking about James White and Rex Burkhead splitting snaps with Harris in the New England backfield. I can live with all that when Harris slides to the 15th or 16th round; I just won't be drafting him at his current Round 14 ADP unless we get additional optimistic news out of training camp.

• WR Robby Anderson

WR55, ADP 141.8 ➡ WR60, ADP 149.7

Usually an ADP shift of this degree comes with a clear explanation. In this case, there hasn't been any relevant news, or even any big rumors floating around twitter. There does seem to be an unspoken consensus that the Carolina offense will only have room for one of Anderson or Curtis Samuel to produce a useful fantasy season. Nobody seems sure which it will be, and there's also probably some fear of both ending up in the 600-to-800-yard range. 

Both make for reasonable picks at the current price, especially given that Samuel has also seen a recent ADP drop (WR53 ➡ WR57, ADP 138.8 ➡ ADP 143.9). A young defense likely will force the Panthers to throw 600-plus passes, and a quick glance at the TE group hints at a small target share and heavy usage of three-wide formations. That said, it's easy to see how things get pretty tight if we're starting off with the assumption of D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey combining for 2,000 receiving yards.

Other Notes

• Clyde Edwards-Helaire is still going at RB5, ADP 7.6 — solidly behind Dalvin Cook (ADP 5.7) but not losing any ground to Derrick Henry (8.4). There's been no real movement there since the first week after Damien Williams' opt-out announcement. Joe Mixon (9.5) is also holding steady since the big news.
• Ronald Jones has been a frequent topic of discussion on social media, and while his position as RB31 hasn't changed, the accompanying overall ADP is up to 65.2 (compared to 69.8 over the first five days of August). I liked him as a seventh-rounder earlier this summer, but there's no way I'm taking him over Michael Gallup, Marquise Brown, etc. in the sixth.
• Nothing that happens with the New England backfield seems to have any impact on James White's ADP. He's lingered around No. 80 throughout spring and summer while nearly every other player in the Patriots offense has moved around a bunch. I wonder if there's some notion that his role is totally independent of whatever is happening with the team's other running backs? Personally, I don't buy it... added snaps for White would be a logical adjustment if the Michel/Harris/Miller thing doesn't work out.
• Apparently I'm the only one who cares about Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson opting out. Compared to the first week of August, DeVante Parker has made only a tiny move from WR26 (ADP 62.6) to WR25 (ADP 61.5). Similar story for Preston Williams, who went from WR53 (ADP 135.7) to WR54 (ADP 136.5). And then there's Mike Gesicki, who's gone from TE12 to TE11, but with a slight drop in overall ADP (115.1 to 116.7). Nobody is drafting Isaiah Ford either, so I think we have an opportunity to take advantage of the missing/vacated targets. This passing game should be pretty heavily concentrated on Parker/Williams/Gesicki, and maybe some Matt Breida out of the backfield. Breida's ADP did nudge up a bit this past week, but that was true for most RBs in his range after the WFT waived Guice.
• Colts rookie wideout Michael Pittman dropped from WR61 (ADP 156.5) to WR64 (ADP 162.5). This is the cheapest he's been since before the 2020 NFL Draft. I'm not sure what, if anything, has inspired the movement.
• Despite my skepticism above, Gibson over Peterson is an easy call if you're in a shallow league where upside is really all that matters after the top 80 picks or so. The rookie at least offers theoretical upside, while Peterson's ceiling looks a lot like his 2019 production.