ADP Analysis: Diontae Up, Deebo Down

ADP Analysis: Diontae Up, Deebo Down

This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.

One could be forgiven for assuming that average draft position (ADP) wouldn't have changed much since the conclusion of the 2020 NFL Draft. After all, teams haven't been able to practice, which means we haven't seen many player injuries, nor have we received regular updates from beat reporters.

Even so, there have been some noteworthy changes in ADP, perhaps driven by twitter hype or inevitable market corrections to previous inefficiencies. The biggest movement seems to be on second-year wideouts, with drafters becoming more aggressive in the pursuit of the sophomore breakouts.

We'll use data from BB10s to analyze some of these shifts, comparing ADP from a two-week window post-draft (April 27 to May 11) to a more recent two-week period (June 10 to June 24). I toyed with the idea of using NFC's ADP data, but the sample of drafts is smaller, and the scoring system awards six points for passing TDs. 

I prefer leagues with six-point TDs, but that still isn't the industry standard, unfortunately. Data from BB10s probably aligns more closely with a "typical" fantasy draft.

Quarterbacks

⬆️ Gardner Minshew  

QB26, ADP 184.6 ➡ QB23, ADP 171.1

I'd like to think I'm the one driving Minshew hype, ranking him at QB19 and repeatedly drafting him to my best ball teams. Realistically, I don't have that kind of sway, but some of the other Minshew stans probably do. There haven't been any big changes for Minshew or the Jaguars since the 2020 NFL Draft, so this is probably just a matter of people wising up and catching on to a good value. Maybe there's still some concern about the Jags adding Cam Newton, but betting sites don't have Jacksonville among the favorites to sign him.

⬆️ Dwayne Haskins  

QB31, ADP 228.9 ➡ QB28, ADP 222.6

The big difference here is less about ADP and more about the percentage of leagues in which Haskins is being drafted at all. He was taken in 150 of 377 BB10s (39.8 percent) from April 27 to May 11, but that went up to 65.1 percent from June 10 to June 24. The old price kind of assumes Haskins is a bust, while the new price at least hints at a little wiggle room for the possibility of a second-year breakout. True believers are hard to find, but I have seen more people over the past few weeks acknowledging that it's too early to pass final judgment on the 23-year-old.

⬇️ Jameis Winston

QB29, ADP 223.3 ➡ QB33, ADP 237.3

Winston was picked in 56.5 percent of leagues from 4/27 to 5/11, compared to 27.7 percent between 6/10 and 6/24. The market apparently took some time to adjust to Winston's new reality as a backup, and I'll even argue he's still being overvalued, considering a Drew Brees injury is the only realistic path to playing time. Meanwhile, Cam Newton (QB34) can sit back and pick a situation that's more conducive to finding snaps, and Tyrod Taylor (QB31) is a probable Week 1 starter. I'd even take Mitchell Trubisky (QB36) over Winston as a desperation No. 3 quarterback.

Running Backs

⬇️ Dalvin Cook

RB4, ADP 4.5 ➡ RB5, ADP 6.1

Cook is one of the few players whose ADP shift can directly be attributed to actual news, following a June 8 announcement that he'll hold out from team activities until he receives a contract extension. Odds are he ends up back with the Vikings before Week 1, but Le'Veon Bell and Melvin Gordon give us recent evidence that it's no sure thing. 

I had Cook behind Alvin Kamara even before this news, in part because injury experts Edwin Porras and Matthew Betz both have expressed concern about Cook's left shoulder being a chronic problem. Kamara is also a holdout risk in the final year of his rookie contract, but the Saints are all-in for 2020, which means they might overpay him just to make the problem go away. Meanwhile, I'm dropping Cook down to No. 8 overall, behind Michael Thomas, Derrick Henry and Joe Mixon.

⬇️ Devin Singletary

RB19, ADP 34.9 ➡ RB23, ADP 43.9

The initial reaction to Buffalo drafting Zack Moss was modest, but the past month has seen Singletary slip behind Chris Carson, Le'Veon Bell and even David Johnson in ADP. While I do like Moss as a prospect, his presence doesn't seem like sufficient reason to panic. The Bills were always going to find someone as a replacement for Frank Gore, so Singletary investors should be happy to see it's a third-round pick instead of a Day 2 selection or Melvin Gordon

Granted, it would've been better if they'd waited longer before picking a new RB, but this is far from a disaster. I'll happily buy Singletary at the new fourth-round price, having discussed him as a 2020 breakout candidate in my first Breakout Watch article back in late January. Meanwhile, Moss has remained steady at RB46, albeit with his overall ADP moving up from 122.9 in early May to 115.2 the past couple weeks. I've been drafting both Singletary and Moss to my teams recently — sometimes together, sometimes separate.

⬇️ Ke'Shawn Vaughn

RB33, ADP 69.9 ➡ RB36 89.0

⬆️ Ronald Jones

RB39, ADP 89.7 ➡ RB34, ADP 83.2

This one has seen a considerable shift, with drafters moving from a clear preference for Vaughn to a slight preference for Jones. The latter is in line with my personal opinion, but I could also make a case for the rookie at his new price. Drafting both is a reasonable strategy, especially for a team build that's light on RBs in the early rounds. (Zero RB is viable in best ball!)

Wide Receivers

⬇️ DeAndre Hopkins

WR3, ADP 13.0 ➡ WR5, ADP 16.5

The recent price is the one I agree with as Hopkins lands No. 5 in my recent WR rankings. I don't really have any explanation for the ADP drop, but it's nonetheless interesting to point out.

⬆️ Terry McLaurin

WR27, ADP 62.9 ➡ WR24, 55.8 ADP

I wonder if McLaurin hype is helping Haskins' ADP, or if some mild optimism regarding the QB is driving increased interest in his top receiver? Whatever the case, McLaurin is extremely talented, and he's the unquestioned No. 1 in an offense that may be forced to throw the ball a lot even if it prefers a balanced approach (Vegas projected win total = 5.5). I have McLaurin at WR17, so he's still one of my favorite players to draft.

⬆️ Marquise Brown

WR33, ADP 76.1 ➡ WR28, ADP 67.6

Brown has been getting a lot of hype all offseason, so I'm surprised it took this long for him to reach the Top 30 at wide receiver. I'd say he's gone from undervalued to accurately valued, but my pro-Baltimore bias demands I pluck a few shares even at the new price. While his offense won't throw a ton of passes, Hollywood's market share could go as high as 20-25 percent of total targets and 30-40 percent of air yards. With all the pressure their rushing attack puts on defenses, the Ravens can have a narrow focus in the passing game (read: Hollywood + Mark Andrews) without becoming too predictable.

⬆️ Diontae Johnson

WR37, ADP 93.4 ➡ WR35, ADP 80.3

If you're a regular twitter user, you already know what's up with this one. If you're not a regular twitter user, I commend you for actually having a life. Anyway, Johnson seems to be 2020's answer to Curtis Samuel, building up steam from fantasy analysts long before the start of the season. I think 2020 Johnson will fare better than 2019 Samuel, but I don't see much value at the new ADP.

JuJu Smith-Schuster is a strong bet to lead the team in targets, while James Washington figures to serve as the top deep threat. I worry that a lot of the analysis of Pittsburgh's passing attack relies on an expectation of extremely high volume. Sure, we saw it in 2018, but that was when Ben Roethlisberger was two years younger and the Pittsburgh defense was mediocre (13th in DVOA, 17th in points allowed). 

Given my concerns about target depth and volume, I prefer Darius Slayton (ADP 91.7) a round later than Johnson, and I definitely prefer Washington (ADP 183.9) nine rounds later. Johnson may prove talented enough to make me look stupid, but I'm fine taking that chance now that the investment usually requires a seventh-round pick.

⬇️ Deebo Samuel

WR26, ADP 62.0 ➡ WR36, ADP 81.4

⬆️ Brandon Aiyuk

WR65, ADP 179.4 ➡ WR63, ADP 159.6

For this one, I narrowed the second ADP window to June 19-25, following June 18 news that Samuel would need surgery for a Jones fracture in his foot. Rehab timeline estimates leave him questionable for Week 1, and he'll be at serious risk of reduced performance or re-injury even if he's available for the opener. Deebo's old price seemed fair, but I don't think he's being penalized enough for the injury. I dropped him about 15 spots in my WR rankings, while BB10s drafters have pushed him down only 10 spots.

Meanwhile, Aiyuk has seen only a modest bump, reflecting the uncertainty of Kyle Shanahan's target distribution beyond Kittle and Samuel. Jalen Hurd has gone from 21 percent drafted in early May to 56 percent drafted over the past week, rising by just as much as Aiyuk. I'll take a shot on the first-round pick if I'm going with anyone, but my preferred strategy is to load up on Kittle shares in Round 2 and ignore the WR clown show entirely.

⬆️ DeSean Jackson

WR60, ADP 156.3 ➡ WR56, ADP 140.0

Jackson declared himself healthy back in March, and he was clocked running at 23 mph on June 24. I guess there's been some vaguely positive stuff coming for Philadelphia beat writers, but mostly this just seems like another case where a guy was a bit undervalued in early drafts. I definitely prefer D-Jax and Jalen Reagor (WR54) over Alshon Jeffery (WR66), and by an even larger margin than the ADP indicates. The Eagles have shot down Jeffery trade rumors, but they haven't been willing to commit to a rehab timeline for his Lisfranc surgery in December. The PUP list remains a possibility.

Tight Ends

⬆️ Mark Andrews

TE4, ADP 52.8 ➡ TE3, ADP 46.7

With both Andrews and Hollywood rising, I wonder if people are finally coming around to the idea that Baltimore's 56 percent run-play percentage from last year isn't likely to be repeated? Sure, the Ravens are still a clear favorite to lead the league in carries, but that could mean 520 instead of 596. In any case, Andrews has gone from slightly behind Zach Ertz to clearly in front of him as TE3.

⬇️ Austin Hooper

TE9, ADP 96.5 ➡ TE11, ADP 112.1

⬆️ Hayden Hurst

TE15, ADP 121.2 ➡ TE10, ADP 108.7

This has been my favorite ADP situation to monitor throughout the offseason, serving as a proxy for the debate about Hooper's 2019 production and whether it was a result of his talent or just a matter of being a three-down player in a high-volume, plus-efficiency passing offense. The right answer is probably some of both, but I've been on Team Role over Team Talent if we're definitely picking sides, comfortably preferring Hurst over Hooper at the early prices. Now I'm not so sure — the new discount on Hooper is awfully tempting. I'm fine with drafting either or both of these guys in the 9th/10th round.

⬇️ Rob Gronkowski

TE11, ADP 105.9 ➡ TE13, ADP 118.7

I've yet to draft Gronk since he announced his return, generally operating on the assumption his three-down role and heavy usage from New England won't survive the trip down south. Part of that is O.J. Howard still being around, and part of it is Gronk being a 31-year-old with a lengthy medical record at a physically demanding position. You might say he'll be well rested, or you might point out that he was far from dominant when he last played two seasons ago. Personally, I'd rather invest in young breakout candidates like Hurst, T.J. Hockenson, Mike Gesicki, Noah Fant and Blake Jarwin. I know a lot of people will immediately think STEAL when they see a future Hall of Famer at this price... I'm decidedly not one of those people.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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