Best Ball Journal: National Tournament Strategy

Large tournaments have been part of the fantasy football scene for at least 15 years, starting with the NFFC's season-long contests and later gaining mainstream popularity in a very different format — DFS. Last year we saw something new when DRAFT came out with a $3.5M Best Ball Championship, awarding $1 million to the overall winner from a huge collection of best-ball leagues.

Reaching the final required a first-place finish over 12 weeks in a 12-team league, followed by top-three finishes in 24-team matchups the next three weeks... all of which led to a 27-team showdown Week 16. Winning the whole thing required a team that was consistently excellent throughout the year, putting up big individual performances while also avoiding those dreaded goose eggs that can ruin even the most star-laden of best ball squads. 

I'm not sure who ended up winning the $1 million, but I am sure that their team was ridiculous, likely featuring some combination of Christian McCaffrey, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Michael Thomas.

It isn't clear if the same contest will be back now that FanDuel has acquired DRAFT, but we're already seeing a similar concept on other sites, including NFFC affiliate BB10s:

The Pre-Draft BestBowl will contain 500 12-team leagues, with each league winner getting a $10 credit and the remaining $47,000 of the prize pool split between the 16 teams with the largest cumulative point totals for Weeks 1-16. The top prize is $20,000, while 16th place receives $100.

Meanwhile, the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) is already gearing up for similar tournaments, and it's seemingly just a matter of time before FanDuel releases its own best-ball product.

There surely will be some differences in the structures of these various contests, but all figure to incentivize a shoot-for-the-moon draft strategy. Much like large-field DFS tournaments, the payout structures make it virtually impossible to turn a profit by consistently hitting the 90th percentile of teams. Instead, we'll see huge profit margins for squads in the 99.9th percentile, while teams that are merely good will either finish at break-even or out of the money entirely.

The strategy required isn't entirely unfamiliar, as my previous best-ball experience consists of 'Classic' or 'Top 3' contests on BB10s. The classic format is essentially winner-take-all, with first place in a $10-entry, 12-team league getting a $100 prize, and second place settling for a $5 account credit. Even the Top 3 format is heavily concentrated: first place gets $75, second gets $20 and third gets a $10 credit.

Consistently finishing in third or fourth place might prove that you drafted solid teams, but it doesn't do anything for the ol' bankroll. My best teams in 2019 were Ravens stacks, typically featuring Lamar Jackson, Marquise Brown and sometimes Mark Andrews and/or Mark Ingram. I also had a few teams that stacked Chiefs, Cardinals, Bengals or 49ers, yielding mixed results.

Stack for Ceiling 

Anyone who plays DFS will be familiar with the strategy of targeting scoring correlations between players on the same team, namely a quarterback and his pass catchers. Top-heavy payout structures encourage a high-upside, risk-happy strategy, as there's no difference in financial terms between a bad lineup, a mediocre lineup and a pretty good lineup. It's all about finding that one perfect combination where nearly every player has a huge game.

The same idea carries over to these season-long best ball tourneys, where it will be difficult to win a big prize without strong seasons from our early draft picks. If we select Tyreek Hill at the 1-2 turn, we're essentially counting on Patrick Mahomes having a good season. We might as well grab Mahomes himself at the 3-4 turn if he's still available, right?

And, now that we have Mahomes, it would be solid strategy to pick up Mecole Hardman in the middle rounds. There is some aspect of target competition between Hill and Hardman, but there's potential for both to enjoy prolific seasons if Mahomes really crushes it, a la 2018 (especially if the Chiefs trade or release Sammy Watkins).

On the other hand, it's probably best to steer clear of Hardman if we're working with a roster that has Hill but not Mahomes. Then we're getting target competition without the QB correlation, while someone else in our league will get the massive Mahomes season that's highly likely in the scenario where both Hill and Hardman outperform ADP.

Don't Handcuff

The corollary of stacking is to avoid negative correlations between teammates. It might feel cozy or safe to draft Jamaal Williams for a team that already has Aaron Jones, but that leaves us with a best-case scenario — a massive campaign from Jones — where one of our players (Williams) probably isn't getting many touches.

Winning one of these huge tournaments means drafting the kind of team where early and late picks alike put up strong numbers. Rather than drafting Williams as a handcuff, we should look for a backup running back from a different team. It's extremely difficult for both Jones and Williams to enjoy killer seasons, but it isn't so hard for Jones and Alexander Mattison to thrive at the same time. In fact, it might just be a matter of Jones staying healthy while Dalvin Cook doesn't.

Welcome Risk

The risk-loving strategy can also be applied to individual players, prioritizing ceiling over floor. There's added potential to take advantage in early-drafting tournaments throughout February and March, as we still don't know where rookies (and many veterans) will end up playing in 2020. 

David Johnson might be stuck behind Kenyan Drake in Arizona again, but it's also possible Drake signs elsewhere and DJ gets another crack at the lead job (or gets traded). Similar logic can apply to a second-tier rookie like LSU product Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who conceivably could earn a three-down role with the right team but wouldn't necessarily get regular playing time if he were to land in a loaded backfield.

Apart from winter/spring roster uncertainty, we can take on desirable risk in the form of players with sketchy medical records or skill sets that inherently lend to boom/bust production. Will Fuller checks both boxes, sitting at No. 112 in ADP on BB10s. One spot ahead of Fuller lies Brandin Cooks, another talented deep threat who may or may not be able to stay on the field.

Backup running backs offer another path to upside outside the top-100 picks, especially when they're the unquestioned No. 2 behind a highly productive starter. Mattison and Tony Pollard won't do much if Cook and Ezekiel Elliott stay healthy all year, but these backups have RB1 upside in the event of major injuries to their teammates. In fact, I'd argue that Pollard, Mattison and Latavius Murray each comes with a higher ceiling than many of the RBs selected in Rounds 4-8.

Last but not least, we should keep in mind that the majority of "breakout" players are Day 1/2 draft picks in their second or third seasons in the NFL. Typically these guys have shown some level of production in the past, but DJ Chark pulled the zero-to-hero trick as a late-round fantasy pick last year, while fellow second-year breakouts Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup and D.J. Moore followed the more traditional path after solid rookie campaigns.

Specific Targets

If early ADP more or less holds, I actually think we'll get decent value stacking some of the flashy offenses, including Baltimore and KC. Lamar Jackson (ADP 24) and Mark Andrews (ADP 54) are priced far below the value of their 2019 production, while Marquise Brown (ADP 87) is one of my favorite bargains. That stack has the potential to pay off handsomely even if the Baltimore offense drops from 33.1 points per game to, say, 28 ppg.

The Cowboys are another glamour stack, one that appears reasonably priced because of contract uncertainty. We can get Amari Cooper (ADP 38), Michael Gallup (ADP 65) and Dak Prescott (ADP 81) without using a pick in the first three rounds, and it's not like it would be a total disaster if Cooper were to sign with a different team.

If we're looking to go cheaper with a potential breakout offense full of young players, the Giants have Darius Slayton (ADP 97), Daniel Jones (ADP 110) and Sterling Shepard (ADP 115) all going in the same range. Shepard, in particular, looks like a nice value, as we've already seen him post decent production with poor QB play. Shepard is only 27 years old, and Year 2 of Danny Dimes may be the best quarterbacking the wide receiver has experienced in his pro career.

If we're looking for a bounce-back rather than a breakout, the Steelers have a slew of players going far below their 2019 draft costs, namely JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP 36), James Conner (ADP 51), Ben Roethlisberger (ADP 132) and James Washington (ADP 176). I don't have anything against Diontae Johnson (ADP 106), but I don't really understand why we can get Washington six rounds later. The two wideouts had comparable production in the same offense last season, and Washington is the deep threat.

Dumpster divers might want to check out Las Vegas, where Derek Carr (ADP 245) and Tyrell Williams (ADP 181) essentially are going for free. Williams looked awfully good before he was hobbled by plantar fasciitis, and Carr finished the year with career highs for passing yards (4,054), completion percentage (70.4) and QBR (63.7). The Raiders played at a slow pace and didn't get any help from their defense or special teams, but the offense was ninth in yards per play (5.9) and fifth in yards per drive (35.4). The team has a good bit of cap room to secure upgrades, and I'm not so sure WR will be an offseason priority after slot man Hunter Renfrow (ADP 133) came on strong late in the year.

Here are some of my other favorites based on the extremely early ADP feedback:

Courtland Sutton (41), Jonathan Taylor (44), Raheem Mostert (46), Damien Williams (48), Darren Waller (50), Kerryon Johnson (55), Robert Woods (57), Terry McLaurin (60), Phillip Lindsay (66), Julian Edelman (68), Deshaun Watson (73), T.Y. Hilton (78), N'Keal Harry (134), Anthony Miller (136), Zack Moss (158), Sammy Watkins (159), Alshon Jeffery (169), Justin Jackson (179), Matt Breida (187), Parris Campbell (197), Andy Isabella (198) and Allen Lazard (225).