DraftKings NFL: Championship Weekend Picks
DraftKings NFL: Championship Weekend Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

GAMES (EST)

Sunday, 3:05 p.m: Titans at Chiefs (-7.0, 53.0 O/U on DraftKings Sportsbook)

Sunday, 6:40 p.m: Packers at 49ers (-7.5, 46.5)

QUARTERBACKS

Patrick Mahomes, KC vs. TEN ($7,700): Despite being the most expensive player at the position, Mahomes figures to be the most popular quarterback because he is the focal point of the offense with the highest implied total. Last week's game script couldn't have gone much better for Mahomes, as the Chiefs fell behind 24-0 in the first quarter, allowing him to air it out and eventually finish with 321 passing yards and five touchdowns while also adding an impressive 53 rushing yards on seven carries. The Titans' defense has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks among teams left in the playoffs, and it's tough to see another quarterback having as much upside.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN at KC ($5,500): If fading Mahomes is the plan, going with the opposing quarterback isn't a terrible idea, especially since you get a discount from Aaron Rodgers ($6,100) against the elite 49ers defense and don't have to rely on getting enough passing opportunities from Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,200) against the Packers. Garoppolo isn't a bad consideration, but with the 49ers expected to win, likely by running a lot, the passing upside may not be as high as Tannehill's. I realize it's odd to talk about potential passing upside for Tannehill after he threw 15 and 14 passes in the past two games, respectively, but if the Chiefs get out ahead early then there should be every reason for the Titans to rely more on Tannehill's arm to get them back into the game.

RUNNING BACKS

Derrick Henry, TEN at KC ($8,700): The decision to roster Henry will have big effects on fantasy lineups because he's the most expensive player on the slate by $1,000. However, he's obviously the player his offense is built around, getting 32, 34 and 30 carries in the past three games, respectively, rushing for 211, 182 and 195 yards. Tennessee controlled those games because of Henry, but they also haven't faced an offense like the Chiefs'. It's likely that Henry will be used plenty early in the game with the hope that they can keep Mahomes off the field, and the Chiefs come in having allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs this season, including the sixth-most rushing yards and fourth-highest yards per carry (4.83). There are plenty of reasons to play Henry, including the fact that filling both running backs spots isn't as easy as it usually is because we only have four teams available. Despite all of that, fading Henry makes sense if you want to load up on Chiefs, which is probably a path many will go because they are expected to score the most points.

Damien Williams, KC vs. TEN ($7,000): Williams has gotten a vast majority of the backfield opportunities for the Chiefs, who are expected to score enough points where he should get enough touches to justify his salary, which is the second-highest among running backs. Coming in $300 cheaper is the Packers' Aaron Jones, who faces a 49ers defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to running backs this season, including just four touchdowns in the past eight games while last giving up 100 rushing yards in Week 9. The Titans have been decent against running backs, but Williams' usage in the passing game keeps him very much in play for the biggest favorite on the slate.

Raheem Mostert, SF vs. GB ($4,300): Fantasy players who rostered Mostert last week were left fuming as they watched Tevin Coleman ($5,700) rush a career-high 22 times for 105 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota, only to find out later that Mostert suffered a calf cramp that held him out after rushing 12 times for 58 yards. The 49ers' backfield situation has been muddy all season, but Mostert's price makes him a reasonable risk to take as the Niners are 7.5-point favorites at home. Even of Coleman gets more of the work again, his salary is in a bit of a tough range for those who are trying to spend up elsewhere, which is what gives a slight edge to Mostert, who practiced fully this week.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Tyreek Hill, KC vs. TEN ($7,200): Davante Adams ($7,900) is the most expensive wide receiver on the slate and probably more viable for cash games because of his target volume, having had at least 10 passes thrown his way in eight of his last nine games, including last week when he had eight catches on 11 targets for 160 yards and two touchdowns, giving him four scores in as many games. He now faces a 49ers defense that allowed multiple wide receiver touchdowns in four of the past five games, and the Packers are likely to be throwing the ball if they fall behind. Given Rodgers' preference to seemingly only pass to Adams, the volume should be there. Hill, on the other hand, has much more big-play ability and is lining up for the team with the highest implied total. He's only had double-digit targets twice this season, but there's no question that Hill has significant upside in games the Chiefs are expected to score plenty of points in. Then again, he caught three of four targets for 41 yards last week when the scored 51 points, so any hesitation is understandable.

A.J. Brown, TEN at KC ($5,200): On the other side of Hill's game is Brown, who was shut down by two of the best defenses in the NFL over the past two weeks. However, the Chiefs' unit isn't nearly as good as the Patriots' and Ravens', and Tannehill will need to target Brown if they decide to air it out. He is also very capable of creating big plays, and while his production would normally make him more of a GPP option, it won't be surprising if he's owned in cash games given the small slate. There are actually a number of viable receivers in his price range, with the 49ers' Deebo Samuel ($5,500) and Emmanuel Sanders ($4,900) both viable, though you have to question their volume because San Francisco prefers to run the ball and Garoppolo hasn't shown any specific preference for one guy over the other.

Kendrick Bourne, SF vs. GB ($4,200): Making matters worse in the discussion about Samuel vs. Sanders is that Bourne actually leads the team in end-zone targets over the past five games, something that helped him score a touchdown last week against Minnesota on one of his three catches (five targets). His salary savings could be helpful for those who can't afford Sammy Watkins ($4,600) or even Allen Lazard ($4,400), and he's slightly more reliable than the other Kansas City guys like Mecole Hardman ($3,800) or Demarcus Robinson ($3,300) or the Packers' Geronimo Allison ($3,700) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,500).

TIGHT ENDS

Travis Kelce, KC vs. TEN ($7,100): Kelce was the slate-breaker last week, catching 10 of 12 targets for 134 yards and three touchdowns, the third time in the past four games when he had at least 100 yards or a touchdown. He's by far the most expensive tight end, but you could also make a reasonable argument that he's the best pass catcher on the slate, so comparing him to guys like Adams or Hill is totally justified.

George Kittle, SF vs. GB ($5,800): Kittle is an alternative to Kelce, though I think this is another week where you could justify playing both. Kittle wasn't required to do much last week against Minnesota, catching only three of five targets for 16 yards, but he remains Garoppolo's best pass catcher. Otherwise, you can pay down for Jimmy Graham ($3,700) or Jonnu Smith ($3,400), but the reliability of Kelce and (usually) Kittle make it seem more prudent to pay up at tight end and take a chance on a cheap wide receiver who can turn a big play into a touchdown versus a tight end who is likely to be completely touchdown dependent to provide any kind of value.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

49ers vs. GB ($2,900): The 49ers' pass rush is back to full strength, as we saw when they recorded six sacks in last week's win over Minnesota. One issue is that Rodgers doesn't throw many interceptions, so the turnover upside may not be that great, but we've seen this defense priced as high as $4,100 this season. I don't think playing the Packers ($2,400) is bad if you need to save some money because Garoppolo throws his fair share of terrible interceptions, so the variance of turnovers and potential touchdowns is worth considering.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Andrew M. Laird plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kingmorland, DraftKings: andrewmlaird, Yahoo: Lairdinho.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is an eight-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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