This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
I did well last week, going 3-1, and my only loss was on the coin-flip Packers-Seahawks game. That puts me at 5-3 for the playoffs with three games to go.
This week I feel more strongly about the NFC game than I do the AFC one.
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Titans +7.5 at Chiefs
I made this line seven, so I'm narrowly on the Titans, but it's almost a coin flip. I think Derrick Henry will bludgeon the Chiefs like he has his first two playoff opponents, but also that Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown will get going against a Chiefs pass defense missing rookie safety Juan Thornhill and possibly pass-rushing tackle Chris Jones. In fact, I probably like the over (52.5) in this game (weather permitting) more than either side, as I'm confident the Chiefs will put up points against Tennessee's middle-of-the-road defense no matter what else happens. But largely I expect the Titans to keep up, but fall a little short. Take the points.
Chiefs 31 - 24
Packers +7.5 at 49ers
Normally I don't make much of previous match-ups between teams – I didn't even bring up the Chiefs-Titans first game – because they don't mean much. The sample of one-game is too small, and the variance too great. But the first meeting in San Francisco between these two teams had to be one of the 10 most lopsided games of the year. The 49ers won 37-8, despite generating