This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Last week was decent, with the picks going 2-for-4. The two player-based bets -- Saquon Barkley 100+ rushing yards and 1+ TD (+250) and a Kenny Stills anytime touchdown and Texans win (+290) -- came up short, but the team-based bets hit, with the Titans and Buccaneers both scoring 20 points (+126) and the Rams, Saints and Patriots all covering 3.5-point spreads (+128). Longer-odds bets are obviously tougher to hit, but that won't stop us from seeing if there are any that stick out in Week 9, one in which we have only one game with a double-digit spread (Washington +10.5 at Buffalo), but it has a gross 36.5-point total.
Russell Wilson to complete 25+ passes and Seahawks win (+210)
The Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites in a game with a Week 9-high 53.5-point total, and they face a Buccaneers defense that's been dominant against the run this season but has struggled against the pass. Wilson isn't known for a high number of pass attempts, but with the Seahawks unlikely to have much success with Chris Carson out of the backfield, they should be relying on Wilson's arm to get them down the field. There are obviously some hesitations, including the fact that Wilson's 8.5 YPA is one of the highest in the league, indicating he's not going to rack up a bunch of completions on dink-and-dunk passes, but if they can use some shorter passes to make up for the lack of rushing success, Wilson should be able hit 25 completions for the third time this season. If you think Wilson throws for 300 yards in fewer than 25 completions, those odds are +205, all assuming the Seahawks win.
Green Bay Packers -1.5 and over 46.5 (+170)
The Packers are 3.5-point favorites (-105) and the 48.5-point total is sitting at -110 on both sides, so this bet at least gives us a little bit of leeway versus just taking those two together. With Davante Adams expected to return from a toe injury, quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has been awesome recently, gets his best receiver back in a game that has plenty of potential for a lot of points. The Chargers' backfield situation continues to muddle their offense, but if they can get Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler going, hitting 46.5 should be no problem. The Chargers +3.5 were a majority selection in this week's Staff Picks, so we can play it a bit safer with only a 1.5-point line and a slightly lower total.
Bills defense/special teams touchdown and Bills win (+460)
This one is a decent long-shot since defensive or special teams touchdowns don't happen often, but the Bills have a great opportunity in Dwayne Haskins' first NFL start. While he hasn't been afforded the opportunity of a full game yet, Haskins has been dreadful in limited playing time, throwing four interceptions on only 22 pass attempts. The Bills are the biggest favorite in Week 9 at 10.5, but if you want to play it a bit safer in terms of the touchdown, Frank Gore scoring and the Bills winning is a decent +185, though that's more about how bad the Washington defense is and less about Gore himself.
Jets and Dolphins to both score 20 (+196)
This bet focuses more on the two teams' defensive ineptitude than the quality of their respective offenses. The Jets come in at 3.5-point favorites in Miami, but the total is only 42.5. We don't have to get to 43 for this bet to win, but we obviously need to get close. Miami's offense has scored fewer than 20 points in all but one game this season, a 31-21 loss to the Bills, while the Jets' lone time above 20 came in a 24-22 win over the Cowboys. So what makes us think both can hit 20 on Sunday? Well, both teams have also allowed at least 20 points in all but one of their games, so again, this bet is more about how bad they are at stopping other teams than putting their own points on the board. We also can't forget that we don't just need offensive points, as both teams are capable of letting the opposing defense put points on the board.
Mike Williams anytime touchdown (+270)
Williams has been a popular topic for fantasy analysts this week, particularly in terms of touchdown regression. Having been targeted 50 times this season, only three players in the NFL have had more passes thrown their way without scoring touchdowns, and Williams' 10 red-zone targets lead the touchdown-less group. If you're already buying in on Williams in DFS, odds for a touchdown are pretty solid to add on.
