This article is part of our Football Draft Kit series.
We surveyed our football writers for undervalued and overvalued players heading into this season, aka, sleepers and busts.
Why the distinction? Because "undervalued" and "overvalued" more accurately reflect what fantasy owners do when they hunt for sleepers and busts — they're identifying players whose likely average draft position (ADP) makes them either undervalued or overvalued. Like everything else in life, fantasy drafts are about opportunity cost — the potential gain given up by not drafting Player A to instead draft Player B. To determine that, owners must consider not just the pros and cons of a player, but the pros and cons of a player relative to his ADP. To help fantasy owners make those decisions, we asked some of our football writers for their favorite undervalued and overvalued players for the 2019 season. But remember, calling Patrick Mahomes, for example, overvalued does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means his risk outweighs the likelihood he will return his ADP value.
For our purposes, we limited "busts" to an ADP top-10 QB/TE or top-20 RB/WR who is likely to be overpriced.
Darrell Henderson, RB, Rams
Plagued by an arthritic knee, Todd Gurley was spelled by C.J. Anderson throughout the playoffs and the Super Bowl last year. If the Rams did that when the stakes were highest, they'll almost certainly do it during the regular season. Worse, Gurley was held out of OTAs, and we know Sean McVay doesn't play his starters in preseason.