NFL Draft: Day 3 Fantasy Fallout

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Published on April 27, 2019

Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State (6-foot-5, 227 pounds)

Selected 103rd overall by the ARI Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals used the first pick of Day 3 to give Kyler Murray another weapon, selecting a behemoth who ran a 4.48-second 40-yard dash after a 1,300-yard junior season. Butler's 2018 highlight reel is a study in physical dominance, but he was a late bloomer at Iowa State and now faces a tricky path to NFL snaps on a team with Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk (foot), Trent Sherfield and second-round pick Andy Isabella. If nothing else, the Cardinals should find some red-zone work for Butler in what figures to be a pass-heavy offense under new coach Kliff Kingsbury. Butler is a worthwhile dynasty target, but he's unlikely to warrant a redraft pick unless the Arizona wide receiver group is thinned out by injuries this summer.

Ryan Finley, QB, North Carolina State (6-foot-4, 213 pounds)

Selected 104th overall by the CIN Cincinnati Bengals

Finley will battle Jeff Driskel for the No. 2 quarterback job in training camp, with a chance to make rookie-year starts if Andy Dalton suffers an injury or can't keep Cincinnati in the playoff hunt. Finley completed 67.4 percent of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt his senior season at NC State, but his age (24) combined with average arm strength and athleticism suggest his long-term ceiling is no higher than what Dalton has already shown.

Bryce Love, RB, Stanford (5-foot-9, 200 pounds)

Selected 112th overall by the WAS Washington Redskins

Love would've been a Day 1 or 2 pick in last year's draft and is lucky to only fall this far after an ineffective, injury-plagued senior season (4.5 yards per carry) that ended with a torn ACL in December. A recent report suggested Love's surgically repaired knee is stiffer than expected, but the Redskins weren't deterred from adding him to a position group manned by Derrius Guice (knee), Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson. Given the timing of his injury and the crowd in his team's backfield, Love is strictly a dynasty-league stash for 2020 and beyond. The depth chart in Washington should be more welcoming next offseason, with Peterson potentially retiring and Thompson scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent.

Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State (5-foot-10, 198 pounds)

Selected 113th overall by the BAL Baltimore Ravens

Ravens coach John Harbaugh said he wanted a speed demon to join big backs Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon, so general manager Eric DeCosta filled the request with Hill, who led all RBs at the 2019 combine in the 40-yard dash (4.40), vertical jump (40 inches) and broad jump (130 in.). He lacks the desired size for an NFL workhorse, but he did average at least 15.8 carries per game in each of his three collegiate seasons while playing 36 of a possible 39 games. Hill's middling efficiency (5.6 yards per carry, 6.2 per catch) means it shouldn't be taken as a given that he pushes Edwards and/or Dixon out of the rotation, even though the rookie provides a stronger contrast to Ingram's style. Baltimore comes out of the draft with three burners in Hill, Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin.

Gary Jennings, WR, West Virginia (6-foot-1, 214 pounds)

Selected 120th overall by the SEA Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks already had shaky depth at wide receiver and now have to worry about Doug Baldwin (knee/shoulder/groin) considering retirement. The good news? Jennings and D.K. Metcalf (No. 64 overall) are promising prospects, with the former profiling as the technician and the latter as the physical freak. To be fair, Jennings more than held his own at the combine, posting strong marks in the 40 (4.42), bench press (20 reps), vertical jump (37 in.) and broad jump (127 in.). Both players struggled in the agility drills, though Jennings was at least within the normal range of outcomes for a wideout prospect, while Metcalf paid a price for his famously muscular build. The 2019 fantasy upside largely depends on Baldwin's status, as Seattle could end up with an open competition for snaps behind Tyler Lockett, featuring Jennings, Metcalf, David Moore and Jaron Brown. History suggests we could see a frustrating rotation that keeps all of the team's wideouts well below triple-digit targets.

Benny Snell, RB, Kentucky (5-foot-10, 224 pounds)

Selected 122nd overall by the PIT Pittsburgh Steelers

Snell is all production and no athleticism, posting a 4.66 40-yard dash and 29.5-inch vertical after three straight seasons with at least 1,091 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. It's a pretty familiar prospect profile — one that's far more encouraging when the player in question has strong efficiency marks and advanced pass-catching skills. Snell's career mark of 5.3 yards per carry is fine once team context is factored in, while his 29-216-0 receiving line in 39 games is disappointing even for a big back. It can be argued that the Steelers scored a clear win with a similar prospect in James Conner, but the Pitt product had shown a higher ceiling in terms of both rushing production (26 TDs in 2014) and receiving skill (21-302-4 in 2016). The redraft case for Snell almost certainly involves an injury to Conner and/or Jaylen Samuels.

Riley Ridley, WR, Georgia (6-foot-1, 199 pounds)

Selected 126th overall by the CHI Chicago Bears

Ridley is a slower, heavier version of his older brother, but without the excellent college production to make up for concerns regarding athleticism. On the plus side, he comes to the NFL with a reputation as an excellent route runner, and his lack of production was more a matter of volume than efficiency. Ridley caught 44 of 66 targets for 570 yards and nine touchdowns in 2018, leading the Bulldogs in each category. He'll definitely start his career behind Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller (shoulder), but it isn't out of the question to challenge Taylor Gabriel and Cordarrelle Patterson for snaps. Personally, I'm not buying into the idea that a player with 1,015 receiving yards in college and ugly combine numbers will be a good pro because his routes look pretty. There's a middle ground between relying on stats and relying on tape — this ain't it, chief.

Tony Pollard, RB, Memphis (6-foot, 210 pounds)

Selected 128th overall by the DAL Dallas Cowboys

Pollard finished his college career with only 139 carries for 941 yards (6.8 average) and nine scores, instead making his mark as a pass catcher (104-1,292-9) and kickoff returner (seven TDs) while stuck behind third-round pick Darrell Henderson. This prospect profile typically wouldn't be all that interesting for redraft fantasy purposes, but the Cowboys have Darius Jackson and Jordan Chunn as their only other running backs behind Ezekiel Elliott (update: they added Mike Weber in Round 7). Pollard becomes an instant favorite to handle kick returns and should also get a crack at the No. 2 running back job. Given the nature of the Dallas offense, said job would make him one of the stronger handcuffs.

Foster Moreau, TE, LSU (6-foot-4, 253 pounds)

Selected 137th overall by the OAK Oakland Raiders

Moreau did well to land with a team that lacks an obvious starter at tight end, but he'll need some time to develop after catching just 52 passes for 629 yards and six TDs in 49 games (32 starts) for LSU. An optimist might point to George Kittle, who spent most of his college career stuck in blocking role and then lit up the 2017 combine. A pessimist could point to any number of young tight ends that never developed a refined skill set to make the most of 4.6 speed in a 250-pound frame. Moreau placed among the top five tight ends at the 2019 combine in the 40-yard dash (4.66, 5th), vertical (36.5 in., t-3rd), broad jump (121 in., 4th), bench press (22 reps, t-2nd) and short shuttle (4.11 seconds, 1st).

Ryquell Armstead, RB, Temple (5-foot-11, 220 pounds)

Selected 140th overall by the JAX Jacksonville Jaguars

Armstead displayed unusual speed (4.45 40) for his size at the combine, but he otherwise has an unexciting prospect profile short on both rushing efficiency (career 4.9 YPC) and receiving contributions (29 catches for 174 yards in four seasons). His destination is the primary cause for optimism, with Leonard Fournette on shaky ground and the other members of the Jacksonville backfield simply lacking talent. Armstead has more 2019 fantasy appeal than many of the running backs drafted ahead of him, as he should have every chance to beat out Alfred Blue for the second spot on the depth chart.

Hunter Renfrow, WR, Clemson (5-foot-10, 184 pounds)

Selected 149th overall by the OAK Oakland Raiders

Renfrow somehow slipped by the Patriots, instead heading to Oakland where he can battle J.J. Nelson, Ryan Grant (toe) and Marcell Ateman for the No. 3 receiver job. The Clemson product landed between 492 and 602 yards each of the past four seasons, with his two biggest games coming against Alabama in the FBS playoffs at the end of his freshman and sophomore campaigns. Renfrow profiles as a slot specialist, but a 4.59 40 is nonetheless concerning for a player his size.

Qadree Ollison, RB, Pittsburgh (6-foot-1, 228 pounds)

Selected 152nd overall by the ATL Atlanta Falcons

Ollison topped 1,000 rushing yards as a freshman and again as a senior, but he was awfully quiet in between while playing behind Conner and Darrin Hall. The combine stats are about what you'd expect for a player this size, with a reasonable 4.58 40 undone by poor numbers in the jumping and agility drills. While there's nothing remarkable about the prospect, Ollison at least landed with a team that has open competition for backup work behind Devonta Freeman. The rookie may ultimately need to make his living as a short-yardage runner and special teams player.

Trayveon Williams, RB, Texas A&M (5-foot-8, 206 pounds)

Selected 182nd overall by the CIN Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals brought in Williams and Rodney Anderson (211th overall) to round out their depth chart behind Joe Mixon and Giovani Bernard, the latter of whom is entering a contract season. Williams gets high marks for durability and toughness, while Anderson is the upside prospect who flashed first-round talent on the rare occasions when he was healthy. Neither is worth a look in redraft leagues unless the Bengals trade Bernard (unlikely) or lose him or Mixon to an injury. Anderson is the one with talent that's worth taking a stab at.

Dexter Williams, RB, Notre Dame (5-foot-11, 212 pounds)

Selected 194th overall by the Green Bay Packers

Williams' senior season accounted for nearly two-thirds of his college production, including 12 touchdowns and 6.3 YPC on 158 rush attempts. He ran a modest 4.58 40 at the combine, but made up for it with top-three marks among RBs in the broad jump (130 in.), three-cone drill (7.00) and short shuttle (4.16). The combination of size, explosiveness and agility gives Williams a decent shot to beat out Kapri Bibbs for the No. 3 running back job, but it's a long shot for the rookie to challenge Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams in the Green Bay backfield. (Dexter) Williams will need to refine his pass-game skills before Aaron Rodgers even allows him on the field.

Travis Homer, RB, Miami (5-foot-10, 201 pounds)

Selected 204th overall by the SEA Seattle Seahawks

Homer has youth (20), a strong combine showing (4.48 40, 130-inch broad jump) and a college mark of 6.0 YPC working in his favor, but he's on the smaller side and never topped 164 carries in a season at Miami. The Seahawks might find an excuse to stash him on injured reserve, as Homer has a much higher ceiling than his draft spot suggests. The path to a Year 1 impact likely requires multiple injuries, with Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny backed by J.D. McKissic and C.J. Prosise (abdomen) in the Seattle backfield.

Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State (6-foot-3, 221 pounds)

Selected 206th overall by the WAS Washington Redskins

Harmon likely was headed for a Day 2 selection prior to his weak showing at the 2019 combine, where he ran a 4.60 40 with subpar jumping and agility numbers. There's still some cause for guarded optimism, as he's coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and now joins arguably the worst wideout group in the NFL. Paul Richardson (shoulder) will have a starting job if he's healthy, but Washington may otherwise host an open competition for snaps that includes Harmon, third-round pick Terry McLaurin, Josh Doctson and Trey Quinn. It's already enough of a stretch to take a shot on McLaurin, much less the player drafted 130 picks after him by the same team.

Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma (6-foot, 224 pounds)

Selected 211th overall by the CIN Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals doubled down on sixth-round running backs, perhaps signaling Bernard won't stick around past his contract season in 2019. Anderson entered 2018 as the favorite to be the first RB selected in this draft, but he dropped all the way to the late sixth round after suffering a torn ACL in September. His college career also included a pair of season-ending fractures, leaving 2017 — 188-1,161-13 rushing line and 17-281-5 receiving line — as his only chance to display the immense talent for a sustained period. The path to a Year 1 impact is awfully difficult, but Anderson's talent makes him a worthwhile dynasty prospect even though he's stuck behind Mixon.

Darwin Thompson, RB, Utah State (5-foot-8, 198 pounds)

Selected 214th overall by the Kansas City Chiefs

Thompson is a JUCO transfer who played one season of major college football and didn't get an invite to the 2019 combine. That's the negative spin. The positive? He made the most of his lone season with 1,044 rushing yards (6.8 YPC, 14 TDs) and 351 receiving yards (15.3 YPR, two TDS), serving as the engine for an Aggies team that scored 47.5 points per game. Thompson ran a disappointing 4.55 40 at his pro day, but there is some deep-league fantasy appeal on the basis of his landing spot, as he joins an Andy Reid + Patrick Mahomes offense with Damien Williams and Carlos Hyde in the backfield. Thompson probably slots in as the No. 3 running back — the same spot Williams held at the beginning of last season. Reid has a nice track record of getting production from flawed running backs with receiving skills.

Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State (5-foot-10, 211 pounds)

Selected 218th overall by the DAL Dallas Cowboys

Weber was Elliott's successor in the OSU backfield and now gets a chance to compete for the backup job behind his college teammate. Weber's middling elusiveness and receiving skills hint at very limited upside, but he did run a 4.47 40 after besting J.K. Dobbins by 0.9 YPC last season. Weber is the Cowboys' safe, boring backfield addition, while the aforementioned Pollard brings plenty of upside without much experience as a traditional tailback. The winner of the No. 2 job — be it Weber, Pollard, Jackson or an undrafted player— will be a worthwhile late-round target for Elliott owners.

Other Skill Players Drafted

Jarrett Stidham, QB, New England Patriots (Auburn, 133rd overall)

Zach Gentry, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers (Michigan, 141st overall)

Matthew Gay, K, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Utah, 145th overall)

Jordan Scarlett, RB, Carolina Panthers (Florida, 154th overall)

Easton Stick, QB, San Diego Chargers (NDSU, 166th overall)

Clayton Thorson, QB, Philadelphia Eagles (Northwestern, 167th overall)

Austin Seibert, K, Cleveland Browns (Oklahoma, 170th overall)

Darius Slayton, WR, New York Giants (Auburn, 171st overall)

KeeSean Johnson, WR, Arizona Cardinals (Fresno State, 174th overall)

Kaden Smith, TE, San Francisco 49ers (Stanford, 176th overall)

Gardner Minshew, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Washington State, 178th overall)