This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 16:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Redskins | 26.80% | 450 | 81.82 | 4.87 |
| COLTS | Giants | 20.30% | 405 | 80.20 | 4.02 |
| COWBOYS | Buccaneers | 13.30% | 300 | 75.00 | 3.33 |
| BROWNS | Bengals | 11.10% | 290 | 74.36 | 2.85 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 10.10% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.19 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 8.60% | 825 | 89.19 | 0.93 |
| DOLPHINS | Jaguars | 2.80% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.92 |
| Bears | 49ERS | 1.80% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.61 |
| Vikings | LIONS | 1.20% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.36 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 1.10% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.47 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 0.50% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.18 |
| Packers | JETS | 0.20% | 91 | 47.64 | 0.10 |
| EAGLES | Texans | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.05 |
| SAINTS | Steelers | 0.10% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.03 |
| JETS | Packers | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.05 |
| CHARGERS | Ravens | 0.10% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.03 |
| Seahawks | CHIEFS | 0.10% | 74 | 42.53 | 0.06 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 0.10% | 54 | 35.06 | 0.06 |
| Chiefs | SEAHAWKS | 0.10% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.04 |
| Texans | EAGLES | 0.10% | 91 | 47.64 | 0.05 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots aren't great, and the Bills have a good defense and know them well. But coming back home where they're so much tougher, the Patriots should
Let's take a look at Week 16:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TITANS | Redskins | 26.80% | 450 | 81.82 | 4.87 |
| COLTS | Giants | 20.30% | 405 | 80.20 | 4.02 |
| COWBOYS | Buccaneers | 13.30% | 300 | 75.00 | 3.33 |
| BROWNS | Bengals | 11.10% | 290 | 74.36 | 2.85 |
| PATRIOTS | Bills | 10.10% | 750 | 88.24 | 1.19 |
| Rams | CARDINALS | 8.60% | 825 | 89.19 | 0.93 |
| DOLPHINS | Jaguars | 2.80% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.92 |
| Bears | 49ERS | 1.80% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.61 |
| Vikings | LIONS | 1.20% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.36 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 1.10% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.47 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 0.50% | 185 | 64.91 | 0.18 |
| Packers | JETS | 0.20% | 91 | 47.64 | 0.10 |
| EAGLES | Texans | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.05 |
| SAINTS | Steelers | 0.10% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.03 |
| JETS | Packers | 0.10% | 110 | 52.38 | 0.05 |
| CHARGERS | Ravens | 0.10% | 205 | 67.21 | 0.03 |
| Seahawks | CHIEFS | 0.10% | 74 | 42.53 | 0.06 |
| Falcons | PANTHERS | 0.10% | 54 | 35.06 | 0.06 |
| Chiefs | SEAHAWKS | 0.10% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.04 |
| Texans | EAGLES | 0.10% | 91 | 47.64 | 0.05 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
The Patriots aren't great, and the Bills have a good defense and know them well. But coming back home where they're so much tougher, the Patriots should be as focused as ever off two road losses. I give the Patriots a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Los Angeles Rams
They laid an egg as 13-point home favorites last week, so what's to stop them from doing the same in Week 16? The answer is the Cardinals, arguably the league's worst team, rather than the talented and energized Eagles they drew last week. I give the Rams an 84 percent chance to win this game.
3. Tennessee Titans
The Redskins are a bad team, and while their defense is good enough to keep the game close, it's likely to spend too much time on the field. I give the Titans a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Indianapolis Colts
The Giants aren't good defensively, and Eli Manning is a major liability in what would otherwise be a good offense. Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham (if he plays) make them dangerous, but the Colts should handle their business at home. I give the Colts a 76 percent chance to win this game.
5. Cleveland Browns
The Browns are marginally in the playoff hunt after a win in Denver, and now they get an easy matchup at home against the Jeff Driskell-led Bengals. The Bengals know them well and have played decently the last two games, but the Browns are better on both sides of the ball. I give the Browns a 75 percent chance to win this game.
6. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys were bad last week, but that wasn't a surprise on the road and coming off an overtime game that all but clinched the NFC East for them. This week, they're back home and face a pliable Bucs team that has played better on defense of late, but is far from good. I give the Cowboys a 75 percent chance to win this game.
7. New Orleans Saints
The Saints haven't been good on offense of late, and they have a tough matchup against the Steelers. But New Orleans is so much better at home, and the Steelers usually worse on the road. I give the Saints a 69 percent chance to win this game.
8. Minnesota Vikings
The Lions are bad, but they've shown up the last two weeks and are playing at home, while the Vikings offense is shaky, last week's game notwithstanding. I give the Vikings a 68 percent chance to win this game.
9. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have been better at home this year, and the Jaguars seem to show up or bail on games almost at random. Moreover, as mediocre as Ryan Tannehill is, he's much better than Cody Kessler. I give the Dolphins a 65 percent chance to win this game.
10. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have been pushed out of playoff contention with their last two losses, but a game against the Raiders is a get-well opportunity, though the energy level in what's possibly the last game at the Oakland Coliseum could be high. I give the Broncos a 61 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Los Angeles Chargers - The Chargers are good on both sides of the ball, but they have little home field advantage, and the Ravens are a nasty team.
Chicago Bears - The Bears just defeated their long-time nemesis and clinched the NFC North. I want no part of them on the road against a scrappy Niners team.
Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton looks like he's playing hurt, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers shut him down. Even if they don't, he didn't look like he could complete a pass of more than five yards down the field Monday night.
