NFL Game Previews: Chiefs-Rams Matchup

Kansas City (+3.5) at L.A. Rams, 63.5 o/u – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST

The Story: Originally scheduled to be played in Mexico City, the game got moved to Los Angeles due to concerns about the quality of the field at Estadio Azteca. That might make the over/under line a little ambitious, as the game is no longer being played 7,200 feet above sea level, but then again these two teams combine for 68.8 points a game, so maybe it's not completely out of reach. The Chiefs' defense seems to have turned things around, though. They've held six of their last seven opponents to 23 points or less, with only the Patriots blowing past that mark, although the Pats are also the only one of those offenses that can hold a candle to the Rams. Patrick Mahomes is coming off his least productive performance of the year and is nursing a minor foot injury, but even in a "bad" game he still posted an 8.9 YPA and 75 percent completion rate, and threw three passes of 20 or more yards. Los Angeles continues to play things close to the vest. Despite the dominant reputation they established early in the year, five of their last six wins have come by a single score, with lowly San Francisco being the only team they've managed to blow out. Losing Cooper Kupp for the year to a torn ACL could also put a crimp in the passing game given his chemistry with Jared Goff, although Josh Reynolds has the physical skills to fill in more than adequately. It's hard to imagine them leaning any more heavily on Todd Gurley, though. He's already on pace for 381 touches, which would not only be a career high but would put him in the danger zone for a potential injury or downturn in 2019, especially if the team needs him during a deep playoff run. It might not happen this week, but look for the Rams to give him plenty of rest and more work to Malcolm Brown even after their Week 12 bye – especially with possibly meaningless games against the Cardinals and Niners coming in Weeks 16 and 17.

The Skinny:
•KC injuries: WR Sammy Watkins (questionable, foot); S Eric Berry (questionable, heel)
•LAR injuries: WR Kupp (IR, knee)
•KC DFS chalk: Kareem Hunt (LAR 32nd in YPC allowed), Mahomes (LAR 25th in QB rating against)
•LAR DFS chalk: Gurley (KC 30th in YPC allowed, tied for 29th in rushing TDs allowed, 27th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•KC DFS tournament plays: none
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Reynolds (KC 27th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Hunt totals 130 combined yards and two touchdowns. Mahomes throws for 280 yards and two TDs, finding Tyreek Hill and Watkins in the end zone. Gurley responds with 140 combined yards and a score. Goff throws for 320 yards and two TDs, hitting Reynolds and Gerald Everett. Chiefs, 34-24

Cincinnati at Baltimore (+5.5), 39.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Bengals have lost three of four to drop off the pace in the AFC North, but they've had a tough schedule – the three losses have come against the Steelers, Chiefs and Saints, and their only other defeat this season has come against another playoff contender in the Panthers. Whether that makes them a playoff contender themselves, or just the NFL's gatekeeper (the team you beat to prove your title hopes are legit), remains to be seen, but Andy Dalton's almost unnoticed regression into a dink-and-dunker may be a big part of why they haven't been able to get over the hump. He's thrown only one pass of 40-plus yards this season – he's been in double digits in that category in five of the prior seven years, and his career low is seven – and A.J. Green's toe injury won't help him make up ground down the stretch. Given how bad the Cincy defense has been, a lack of explosive plays from the offense gives them very few paths to success. The Ravens' QB situation may or may not be worse. Joe Flacco could be sidelined with a hip injury, but that would just open the door for first-round pick Lamar Jackson to get his first career start. Or maybe not. Jackson was battling a stomach bug in practice earlier this week (cue the Willie Beamen clips), so there's actually a chance Robert Griffin III is under center. So much confusion has played havoc with the line – it opened with the Ravens favored, but when I plucked it they were heavy underdogs – but it shouldn't actually alter Baltimore's game plan much. The Bengals have had little luck containing RBs, either on the ground or through the air, so even if Flacco is able to play, Alex Collins and Javorius Allen should see big workloads.

The Skinny:
•CIN injuries: WR Green (doubtful, toe); WR John Ross (questionable, groin); LB Vontaze Burfict (questionable, hip)
•BAL injuries: QB Flacco (doubtful, hip)
•CIN DFS chalk: none
•BAL DFS chalk: none
•CIN DFS tournament plays: none
•BAL DFS tournament plays: Collins (CIN 28th in YPC allowed, tied for 27th in rushing TDs allowed, 31st in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Head-to-head record, last five-plus years: 8-3 CIN, average score 24-20 CIN, average margin of victory nine points. Three of the last four games have been decided by more than 10 points.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Joe Mixon bangs out 70 yards. Dalton throws for 220 yards and TDs to C.J. Uzomah and Alex Erickson. Collins rambles for a season-high 110 combined yards and a touchdown, while Allen adds a receiving score. Jackson starts and looks comfortable, throwing for 230 yards and two more TDs, finding John Brown and Chris Moore, while also running for 40 yards and a score of his own. Ravens, 38-17

Dallas (+3) at Atlanta, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The last time the Cowboys came to Atlanta it was Green Sunday, when backup tackle Chaz Green did his best impression of a turnstile and made Adrian Clayborn a whole lot of green in free agency this past March. Both players have moved on – Green's now a Saint, and Clayborn a Patriot – but the mental scars inflicted on Dak Prescott arguably still linger. It's impossible to know what to make of the Dallas offense right now. They struggled at home against the Titans but showed out on the road in Philadelphia, and Amari Cooper has looked like a credible No. 1 receiver in both contests, giving the other team something to worry about other than Ezekiel Elliott. The Falcons have been just as chaotic, crushing Washington but then losing badly to the Browns, but unlike the Cowboys they have no shot at winning their division, and even a wild-card spot is starting to look iffy. Maybe giving Julio Jones some touchdowns wasn't such a great idea after all, but it's not like anyone else in this supposedly elite offense is making a regular contribution.

The Skinny:
•DAL injuries: LB Sean Lee (out, hamstring)
•ATL injuries: LB Deion Jones (out, foot)
•DAL DFS chalk: Elliott (ATL 31st in YPC allowed, tied for 27th in rushing TDs allowed)
•ATL DFS chalk: Matt Ryan (DAL 27th in QB rating against)
•DAL DFS tournament plays: Cole Beasley (ATL 31st in DVOA vs. WR3), Prescott (ATL 28th in QB rating against, 29th in QB rushing yards allowed)
•ATL DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Elliott explodes again, piling up 160 combined yards and two scores. Prescott throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Beasley while running in a TD of his own. Tevin Coleman runs for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Ito Smith adds 50 combined yards. Ryan throws for 360 yards and four TDs, two to Calvin Ridley and one each to Julio and Austin Hooper. Falcons, 41-31

Tampa Bay (+1.5) at N.Y. Giants, 52.0 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: How the heck do you throw for more than 400 yards and only produce three points? Seriously, someone break down the math for me, because the field is only 100 yards long between the goal lines, and you only get so many possessions. You should be able to get the ball into the end zone at least once, even by accident, with those numbers. Ryan Fitzpatrick now has a 4:4 TD:INT in two starts since regaining the No. 1 QB role, and job security will be a cruel myth in Tampa until somebody, whether Fitz or Jameis Winston, steps up and plays mistake-free football. Speaking of QB job security, Eli Manning continues to play just well enough to hang onto his, but even after tossing a season-high three TDs in last week's win over the Niners, it's the throws he didn't make that seem to stand out more than the ones he did. It was only the third time this season the Giants have scored more than 20 points, something that seems ridiculous for an offense that features Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham, but so long as they don't suddenly figure things out down the stretch and ruin their draft position, they can still grab Eli's replacement next April.

The Skinny:
•TB injuries: RB Ronald Jones II (out, hamstring); WR Chris Godwin (questionable, ankle); LB Lavonte David (out, knee)
•NYG injuries: none
•TB DFS chalk: none
•NYG DFS chalk: Beckham (45 percent of team Air Yards, TB 26th in DVOA vs. WR1), Barkley (TB tied for 29th in rushing TDs allowed, 26th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•TB DFS tournament plays: Adam Humphries (NYG 26th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•NYG DFS tournament plays: Giants DST (TB 32nd in giveaways), Sterling Shepard (TB 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Evan Engram (TB 28th in DVOA vs. TE), Manning (TB 32nd in QB rating against)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Peyton Barber leads the Bucs backfield with 50 yards. Fitzpatrick throws for 310 yards and three TDs, hitting Mike Evans (who tops 100 yards) twice and Humphries once, but he also throws a pick-six to Landon Collins. Barkley racks up 140 combined yards and a touchdown. Manning throws for 240 yards and two scores, finding Beckham and Shepard. Giants, 31-24

Pittsburgh at Jacksonville (+5.5), 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The last time these two teams met in January during the AFC playoffs, things got a bit crazy. The Jags held on for a 45-42 win after jumping out to a 21-0 lead. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 469 yards and five TDs. Leonard Fournette found the end zone three times, while Antonio Brown and some guy scored two TDs each. It was a jersey ... I mean, a barn burner. A postseason rematch seems unlikely, though. While the Steelers are in their usual spot atop the NFC North, having not missed a beat in swapping James Conner in for you-know-who, the Jags have lost a stunning five straight to plummet to the bottom of the AFC South after their own comeback attempt fell short last week in Indianapolis. Too many three-point kicks is a big part of the problem. After leading the league in red-zone efficiency in 2017, scoring a touchdown almost 69 percent of the time they were inside the 20, they've fallen to 28th in 2018, hitting pay dirt only 45 percent of the time. Having Fournette back should help somewhat, but they really need Blake Bortles to continue looking like he did last week, when he posted an 8.4 YPA, and not be the guy who stumbled to a sub-6.0 mark four times already this year.

The Skinny:
•PIT injuries: RB Le'Veon Bell (out, contract)
•JAC injuries: none
•PIT DFS chalk: none
•JAC DFS chalk: none
•PIT DFS tournament plays: Steelers DST (JAC tied for 27th in giveaways)
•JAC DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 70s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Conner gains 80 combined yards. Roethlisberger throws for 280 yards and TDs to Vance McDonald and Brown. Fournette rumbles for 80 yards and a touchdown. Bortles avoids any big mistakes, throwing for 270 yards and scores to Dede Westbrook and D.J. Chark. Jaguars, 24-23

Houston at Washington (+3), 42.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Texans just keep rollin', rollin', rollin'. (For the record, in my head that was Limp Bizkit.) Winners of six straight, they've surged to the top of the AFC South thanks mainly to their defense, as they're held the opposition to 23 points or less in five of those games. Good thing too, since they've scored 20 or less in four of them. The dynamic duo of J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney have combined for 11 sacks during the winning streak, and they could pose major problems for a Washington offensive line missing both its starting guards and with two banged-up starting tackles. Of course, Deshaun Watson's been brought down 30 times himself – tied for fourth-most in the league – so this game could well be decided by which QB gets enough time in the pocket to make plays. Of course, you could make the argument that Alex Smith isn't making plays even when he does have time, but Washington still somehow has a two-game lead in the NFC East even without a dependable passing game. Their three losses have all come against teams that could air it out, though (Colts, Falcons and Saints), and Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Bucs really beat themselves last week. If Watson and DeAndre Hopkins strike early and often, Washington's limited arsenal will make it very tough to dig out of that hole.

The Skinny:
•HOU injuries: WR Keke Coutee (questionable, hamstring)
•WAS injuries: RB Chris Thompson (out, ribs); WR Jamison Crowder (out, ankle); K Dustin Hopkins (questionable, groin)
•HOU DFS chalk: none
•WAS DFS chalk: none
•HOU DFS tournament plays: Coutee (WAS 28th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•WAS DFS tournament plays: Jordan Reed (HOU 31st in DVOA vs. TE), Maurice Harris (HOU 29th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 40s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Lamar Miller totes up 70 yards and a touchdown. Watson throws for 290 yards and two scores, hitting Hopkins (who tops 100 yards) and Coutee. Adrian Peterson gets held to 40 yards. Smith throws for 200 yards and a TD to Reed, but gets sacked five times. Texans, 24-13

Tennessee (+2) at Indianapolis, 48.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: Talk about no respect. The Titans go out and thump the Pats, and they're still underdogs against 4-5 Colts? They should all come out in red ties and dark suits rather than those CFL-looking unis they currently sport. Tennessee's still very much alive in the playoff race, sitting one game back of Houston for the AFC South lead, and while their two-game winning streak may be modest, they dominated both games. Marcus Mariota is looking like a plausible franchise QB again, posting his two best performances of the season by YPA in those wins, and the defense continues to quietly get the job done – despite a lack of big-name players or, really, much attention, they're now tops in the league in scoring defense at 16.8 points per game allowed. Andrew Luck and the Colts will most definitely put that ranking to the test. They've won three straight games, and even when they lose they light up the scoreboard, averaging 33.3 points a game over their last six. This rivalry used to be extremely one-sided in the Colts' favor, but after sweeping the season series in 2017, the Titans will now get a chance to beat Luck for the first time ever – he's 9-0 against them in his career, although his actual numbers (61.6 percent completion rate, 15:8 TD:INT, 92.4 QB rating) suggest that unblemished record is more due to luck than Luck, as it were.

The Skinny:
•TEN injuries: WR Tajae Sharpe (questionable, ankle); WR Taywan Taylor (questionable, foot)
•IND injuries: none
•TEN DFS chalk: Corey Davis (42 percent of team Air Yards, IND 29th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•IND DFS chalk: none
•TEN DFS tournament plays: none
•IND DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-2 IND, average score 28-22 IND, average margin of victory nine points. TEN has won the last two meetings after losing 11 straight, and 16 of 17 dating back to 2008.
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Dion Lewis piles up 100 combined yards and a TD, while Derrick Henry adds 40 yards and a touchdown. Mariota throws for an efficient 260 yards and a TD to Davis while running in a score of his own. Marlon Mack gains 60 yards. Luck throws for 320 yards and three scores, two to T.Y. Hilton (who tops 100 yards) and one to Ryan Grant, but his comeback charge falls short. Titans, 34-27

Carolina at Detroit (+4), 50.5 o/u – Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

The Story: The Panthers ran into some unholy hybrid of a steel curtain and a chainsaw last Thursday in Pittsburgh, and while getting extra time to lick their wounds will help, the downgrade in opponent this week should be the biggest balm. Even in a rout, Christian McCaffrey got his – he scored all three of Carolina's touchdowns, his third straight game with multiple scores, and he hardly seems likely to slow down now. Detroit's offense is also struggling in the wake of the Golden Tate trade. Matthew Stafford has had two rough games in a row, and not having his trusted quick-strike security blanket available has led to him holding onto the ball too long and trying to do too much, producing both incomplete passes and sacks. Theo Riddick has been the closest thing to a Tate fill-in, catching 13 of 15 targets in those two games, but Kerryon Johnson has also seen 11 targets while still maintaining a solid workload in carries. A passing game built around a solid backfield duo and a physical No. 1 receiver like Kenny Golladay has some potential – just ask Kyle Shanahan – but until Stafford gets used to the new target tree, it's hard to see them scoring enough to bail out one of the worst defenses in the league. The Lions carry bottom-five rankings in points allowed per game (28th), rushing yards allowed per game (28th), and QB rating against (31st), a trifecta of suck that only the tanking Raiders can match.

The Skinny:
•CAR injuries: WR Torrey Smith (out, knee)
•DET injuries: WR Marvin Jones (out, knee); TE Michael Roberts (out, shoulder); DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, shoulder)
•CAR DFS chalk: Cam Newton (DET 31st in QB rating against), Greg Olsen (DET 30th in DVOA vs. TE), McCaffrey (DET 27th in YPC allowed)
•DET DFS chalk: none
•CAR DFS tournament plays: Devin Funchess (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR1), Curtis Samuel (DET 32nd in DVOA vs. WR3), D.J. Moore (DET 27th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•DET DFS tournament plays: Matthew Stafford (CAR 31st in TD passes allowed), Levine Toilolo (CAR 29th in DVOA vs. TE)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: McCaffrey gallops for 150 combined yards and two more TDs, both on the ground. Newton throws for 280 yards and two touchdowns, hitting Olsen and Funchess. Johnson picks up 80 combined yards and a score. Stafford salvages his day with some garbage-time production, throwing for 290 yards and TDs to Golladay and TJ Jones. Panthers 31-24

Denver (+7) at L.A. Chargers, 46.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: It's a good thing for the Broncos that they're in the same division as the Raiders, because otherwise more people might be noticing how bad their season has been. Their three wins are right there with the Bills, Jets and Browns, and the only credible team they've beaten was the Seahawks back in Week 1. While it would be easy to blame Case Keenum, he's actually done almost everything the team could have been expecting, posting a solid completion percentage and YPA and sitting on a pace for over 4,200 yards. Sure, you'd like a few more TDs and a few less INTs, but he's really not the issue. Instead, the culprit has been a lackluster-at-best defense. Von Miller's grabbing a sack a game, but no one else has stepped up, and the team sits 17th in QB rating against and 25th in YPC allowed. You can't even blame a tough schedule for that performance – they may have faced the Chiefs twice as well as the Rams, but they've also played the Raiders, Ravens, Jets and Cardinals, not exactly juggernaut offenses. The Chargers definitely skew closer to the former group, as Philip Rivers and Melvin Gordon have led the Bolts to 26.7 points a game, 10th in the league. Joey Bosa is also close to making his season debut after missing the first nine games with a foot injury, goosing a pass rush that already sits tied for 10th in sacks with 26. While Charger teams of the past have been notorious for losing games they should win and not living up to expectations, the 2018 edition seems to have shaken off that bug. At 7-2, their only losses have been to the Chiefs and Rams, and they're won by an average of 10.8 points during their six-game winning streak.

The Skinny:
•DEN injuries: LB Brandon Marshall (out, knee)
•LAC injuries: DE Bosa (questionable, foot); TE Antonio Gates (questionable, knee)
•DEN DFS chalk: none
•LAC DFS chalk: Melvin Gordon (DEN 25th in YPC allowed), Keenan Allen (DEN 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•DEN DFS tournament plays: none
•LAC DFS tournament plays: none
•Head-to-head record, last five years: 8-3 including postseason, average score 22-18 DEN, average margin of victory 10 points.
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the high 60s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Phillip Lindsay leads the Broncos backfield with 80 combined yards, but Royce Freeman also chips in 50. Keenum throws for 270 yards and TDs to Emmanuel Sanders and DaeSean Hamilton. Gordon gains 130 combined yards and a touchdown. Rivers throws for 250 yards and his usual two scores, hitting Keenan Allen both times. Chargers, 27-23

Oakland (+5.5) at Arizona, 40.5 o/u – Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

The Story: The 1-8 Raiders take on the 2-7 Cardinals, and no fan in their right mind of either team should actually want to watch this game, no matter how ride or die you are for them. I mean, do you actually want them to win? Victory here could do irreparable harm to their chances of coming away with the first overall pick in 2019. Mind you, it's hard to imagine Oakland ever winning another game this season given how putrid they're been looking. They've lost five in a row, dropping games to such powerhouses as the Colts and 49ers, and their average deficit over that stretch has been 20 POINTS. Twenty! Their smallest loss in those games has been 14 points. All their top players, Derek Carr excepted, have gotten hurt or been traded away, and I'm not sure any more whether the exception for Carr is that he's still on the roster or that he shouldn't be considered a top player. He is on pace for his first 4000-yard season, but a 10:8 TD:INT through nine games is far short of expectations. Of course, that's still better than Josh Rosen's numbers, but rookies gonna rookie. Arizona's been pretty bad themselves – the only team they've beaten is the Niners, twice – but at least the offense seems to be back on decent footing, as David Johnson has started getting the kind of workload he should have been seeing all along. His 28 touches last week led to a season-high 183 scrimmage yards, and against an Oakland defense that's been mostly helpless against RBs all year, he seems primed for another huge performance.

The Skinny:
•OAK injuries: WR Jordy Nelson (out, knee); WR Martavis Bryant (out, knee)
•ARI injuries: S Budda Baker (out, knee); K Phil Dawson (questionable, hip)
•OAK DFS chalk: none
•ARI DFS chalk: Johnson (OAK 24th in YPC allowed, 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•OAK DFS tournament plays: Doug Martin (ARI 31st in rushing TDs allowed)
•ARI DFS tournament plays: Cardinals DST (OAK tied for 24th in sacks allowed), Ricky Seals-Jones (OAK 32nd in DVOA vs. TE), Josh Rosen (OAK 30th in QB rating against), J.J. Nelson (OAK 30th in DVOA vs. WR3)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Martin runs for a season-high 90 yards and a TD. Carr throws for under 200 yards and a score to Dwayne Harris. Johnson rips off 150 combined yards and two rushing touchdowns. Rosen throws for 220 yards and a TD to Ricky Seals-Jones, while Haason Reddick returns a Carr fumble to the house. Cardinals, 31-17

Philadelphia (+9) at New Orleans, 56.0 o/u – Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

The Story: The first of three marquee matchups to close out the week, the Eagles head to New Orleans after a stinging home loss to the Cowboys. They're still only two games back of Washington in the NFC East, but the defending champs need to put together a winning streak, and soon, if they want to stay in the playoff picture. Carson Wentz has been doing what he can, completing at least 66 percent of his passes while throwing for more than 270 yards and multiple TDs in six straight games, but defensive lapses and the lack of a consistent running game have left Philly just a shadow of its championship self. Golden Tate only played 18 snaps in his Eagles debut, but as he grows more familiar with the offense, it wouldn't be shocking to see Doug Pederson put the ball fully in Wentz's hands and unleash the passing game in an effort to simply outscore the opposition every week. Good luck with that against the Saints, though. After toppling the Rams a couple of weeks ago to seize control of home-field advantage in the postseason, the only real question for Drew Brees and company is whether they peaked too early or not. They're failed to score at least 30 points only twice all year (and still won both of those games), topping out at 51 last week in Cincinnati, but their defense has also been stout, allowing more than 23 points only once in their last six wins. With the two-headed backfield monster of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram roaring as well, there doesn't seem to be any way for the opposition to shut them down completely.

The Skinny:
•PHI injuries: RB Darren Sproles (out, hamstring); CB Jalen Mills (out, foot)
•NO injuries: none
•PHI DFS chalk: Wentz (NO 29th in QB rating against), Alshon Jeffery (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR1)
•NO DFS chalk: Kamara (PHI 23rd in YPC allowed)
•PHI DFS tournament plays: Nelson Agholor (NO 32nd in DVOA vs. WR2), Wendell Smallwood (NO 32nd in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS tournament plays: Ingram (see above), Tre'Quan Smith (PHI 30th in DVOA vs. WR2)
•Weather forecast: dome

The Scoop: Wendell Smallwood leads the Eagles backfield with 70 combined yards and a receiving score, while Josh Adams adds a short rushing TD. Wentz throws for a season-high 380 yards and three more touchdowns, hitting Agholor twice and Jeffery once, with the latter topping 100 yards. Kamara responds with 140 combined yards and two TDs, one rushing and one receiving, while Ingram adds 80 combined yards and a score. Brees throws for 310 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Michael Thomas and Tre'Quan Smith. Saints, 41-38

Minnesota (+2.5) at Chicago, 45.0 o/u – Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: This game should determine whether there will be any kind of race in the NFC North or not. The Vikings sit half a game back of the Bears and have a slightly tougher remaining schedule, so they really need to come up with a win here. They've been playing well enough to do it, winning four of their last five with the only loss coming to the Saints, and while Dalvin Cook is back to bolster the offense, it's their resurgent defense that has been leading the way. Everson Griffin's return to action has put a charge in the pass rush, and they're now tied for second in sacks at 31 and tied for third in TD passes allowed at 12. That's great and all, but it pales in comparison to what Khalil Mack and the Bears' defense has done so far. Chicago leads the league in both YPC allowed and QB rating against, a rare double, and they're right behind Minnesota in sacks with 30. With Mitchell Trubisky turning into a poor man's Patrick Mahomes before our very eyes – he's thrown for more than 300 yards in four of his last six games, and multiple TDs in five of his last six – the Bears would not only assume a commanding lead in the division with a win here, they might be the team best equipped to handle the high-octane attacks of Los Angeles and New Orleans in the NFC playoffs.

The Skinny:
•MIN injuries: LB Anthony Barr (questionable, hamstring)
•CHI injuries: none
•MIN DFS chalk: none
•CHI DFS chalk: Bears DST (see above)
•MIN DFS tournament plays: none
•CHI DFS tournament plays: Anthony Miller (MIN 28th in DVOA vs. WR2), Trey Burton (MIN 27th in DVOA vs. TE), Tarik Cohen (MIN 30th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the low 30s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Cook bangs out 60 yards. Kirk Cousins throws for 220 yards and a TD to Stefon Diggs but gets sacked five times. Cohen leads the Bears backfield with 80 combined yards and a receiving score, while Jordan Howard adds 50 yards and a touchdown. Trubisky throws for 260 yards and two more TDs to Miller and Burton. Bears, 34-13

Green Bay (+3) at Seattle, 48.0 o/u – Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EST

The Story: Both teams have to be viewing this game as nearly a must win. The Packers are still alive in the NFC North, sitting two games back of the Bears with the Vikings between, but it's increasingly looking like a wild-card berth might be their best route to the playoffs. The Seahawks are DOA in the NFC West, but at 4-5 can still push for a wild-card spot with a strong finish. Aaron Rodgers is finally getting some consistent help beyond Davante Adams, as both Aaron Jones (306 rushing yards and three TDs the last three games) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (14-293-1 on 24 targets the last four games) have made an impact, but whatever success the team has down the stretch is probably going to depend as much on how the rebuilt secondary performs as it does Rodgers' heroics. Seattle has lost consecutive games to a couple of very good teams in the Rams and Chargers, and their only loss on the season to a team that has a losing record came in Denver in Week 1. Rashaad Penny looked like a first-round pick last week, totaling 108 yards and a TD on just 12 carries, but with Chris Carson expected to return, the backfield mix is once again up in the air. Pete Carroll's emphasis on establishing the run has done wonders for Russell Wilson's efficiency. While he's thrown for more than 250 yards only once all season, he's also thrown for multiple TD passes in every game but one, and his 21:5 TD:INT is a career-best ratio. Whatever the stats say heading into this game, though, it's hard to ignore the Packers' home/road splits this season. They're undefeated at Lambeau Field, and winless away from it.

The Skinny:
•GB injuries: WR Randall Cobb (out, hamstring); LB Blake Martinez (questionable, ankle)
•SEA injuries: LB K.J. Wright (doubtful, knee)
•GB DFS chalk: Jones (SEA 29th in YPC allowed)
•SEA DFS chalk: none
•GB DFS tournament plays: none
•SEA DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the low 50s, less than 10 mph wind, 0-15 percent chance of rain

The Scoop: Jones scampers for 90 yards and a TD. Rodgers throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Lance Kendricks and Adams. Carson starts and gains 60 yards while Penny adds 50 as they split carries, but it's Mike Davis who catches a TD pass. Wilson throws for 240 yards and two more scores, finding Nick Vannett (for the third straight game) and Tyler Lockett, while Lockett also takes a kickoff return to the house. Seahawks, 28-27

Last week's record: 7-7, 6-7-1 ATS, 9-5 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 92-54-2, 62-78-8 ATS, 66-81-1 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS