Exploiting the Matchups: Thomas Remains a TD Threat

For any of you wondering, the following cast comprises my highest-owned players in 2016: Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, Allen Robinson (#beast), Sammy Watkins, Tyler Boyd, Matt Forte, Melvin Gordon (#gottabelieve), Charles Sims, Derrick Henry, Jordan Reed and Gary Barnidge. Of course, only a few of these players are my own fantasy first-stringers at their respective positions. However, I particularly loved the upside possessed by guys like Mariota, Watkins and Gordon, and I couldn't pass on the value of others like Boyd, Sims and Barnidge.

I like to get into a variety of league formats and approach each with a different path towards building a team. But, for the first time in years, I'm all-in on the wide-receiver-over-running-backs theory, regardless of format. In particular, I place an emphasis on volume-target guys.

Let's face it: If you're not catching the ball, your chances of putting up big numbers in fantasy dwindle. Only true freak specimens like Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson get a pass here since you're fine with them almost exclusively handling work on the ground (side note: David Johnson would also qualify if he weren't a spectacular receiver, and as such, he's my top RB heading into 2016). Here, you can trust Gurley and Peterson to still come through in a big way even though their receiving production is limited by their roles (I see Jerick McKinnon taking that baton from Peterson sometime soon, though).

For those who consider themselves beyond the casual fantasy player, I'm not telling you anything you don't know. Personally, this is just the first year I've finally bought in to the zero-RB theory. I guess I'm fed up with being so-called "stacked" at the running back position, yet still losing fantasy championships by a narrow margin. And if you're of the old-school breed, you should be, too. We're at that point when we need to get with the times. After all, it's pretty hard not to notice the discrepancy in value when 26 players hit the 1,000-yard receiving plateau while only seven managed to cross that threshold on the ground.

With this in mind, in 2016 I aim to provide at least four "upgraded" receivers each week. In the past, I've never set a quota on the amount of upgrades or downgrades I'd write in a given week because each week is unique. And, in the interest of full disclosure, I've tried to limit each position to three players in order to elicit confidence in my selections. But that's not always the most helpful. So, this year my goal every week is to provide at least four receivers outside of the approximate top-20 that, in my informed opinion, are positioned to exceed their typical production.

If you're unfamiliar with this column, here's the basic premise: the "upgrades" are players who aren't necessarily weekly starters, but may be positioned to go off that particular week. On the other hand, the "downgrades" are players you're usually not benching, but may want to consider finding replacements for given their impending matchup. This column is not intended to be a traditional "Start 'em, Sit 'em" piece, but rather to provide perspective one may have failed to consider in making those tough decisions less tough, as well as to more effectively distract your brain from those consensus "no-brainer" choices. Whether it's defensive challenges, shootout probabilities, key injuries, location, weather, etc. -- basically anything that could impact a player's value -- I'll focus each week on a handful of players at every major offensive position to detail who is specifically at an advantage or disadvantage, accounting for only the most pertinent factors.

Now, with all that formality out of the way, let's look at who may produce a little bit extra, and who may disappoint, come Week 1.

UPGRADE

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, DET at IND

Vontae Davis is hurt, and the game is indoors. Andrew Luck will surely put up points, but a leaky Colts defense, minus its best cover man, could bleed even more. Especially with TE Eric Ebron nearing full strength, expect Stafford to approach 40-plus pass attempts in his regular-season opener.

Marcus Mariota, TEN vs. MIN

The two biggest things working in Mariota's favor this week: Whoever is starting at QB for the Vikings, and Tennessee's smashmouth run game. Minnesota will be hard-pressed to stay on the field regardless of which game manager the team elects to trot onto the field and, with DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry fully capable to churn out first downs, Mariota will be provided ample opportunities to rack up yards and get in close for scores.

Robert Griffin, CLE at PHI

Two-QB league alert: Philly allowed 36 passing touchdowns last year and remains thin in the secondary beyond Malcolm Jenkins. They're adept at rushing the passer, though. While this may rattle Griffin into some mistakes, he'll also offset those errors with his scrambling prowess. The yards he accumulates on the ground, combined with his willingness to throw downfield, give Griffin a nice floor Week 1.

Running Back

Spencer Ware, KC vs. SD

In two games against San Diego last year without Jamaal Charles, Ware rumbled for 148 yards on 19 carries (7.8 yards per carry) and cashed in a pair of touchdowns. The Chargers unsurprisingly tied for 31st in 2015 with 4.8 YPC allowed, but the only "upgrade" they made to their front seven was drafting the too-good-for-preseason Joey Bosa. Oh, and Mr. Charles isn't ready to return quite yet from last year's ACL injury and Charcandrick West is nursing an elbow injury.

Duke Johnson, CLE at PHI

New defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and the transition to a 4-3 should improve Philly's defense, but the team still finished last versus the run in 2015 and made little change to their front seven. Hue Jackson is presumably well aware of this. However, the Eagles were also specifically troubled when defending tailbacks in the passing game -- they surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards and tied for second in touchdowns allowed to the position.

Charles Sims, TB at ATL

Atlanta rookie linebackers, meet one of the league's most effective receivers out of the backfield. Sims averaged 11.0 yards per catch last year (on 51 grabs), and could terrorize the middle of the Falcons' inexperienced defense. To boot, he's also expected to handle more rushing attempts than he did in 2015.

Wide Receiver

DeSean Jackson, WAS vs. PIT

The Steelers were 30th against the pass in 2015, are already down one of their top pass-rushers in Bud Dupree (abdomen), and their front office did little to upgrade their bottom-of-the-barrel cornerback talent. Jackson seems a bit forgotten this season because injury problems led to the worst statistical totals of his career, but he's still the best outside weapon on a team with a blossoming passer and highly questionable ground game. Translation: expect a hot start to open 2016.

Marvin Jones, DET at IND

Who will finish as the No. 1 receiver in Detroit between Jones and Golden Tate is a huge fantasy question entering 2016. What's not in question is whether the Lions will be a pass-dominant team. That means Stafford's right arm should be getting a heck of a workout versus a suspect Indy defense already down its top corner (Vontae Davis). Don't sleep on this former Bengal in Week 1.

Michael Crabtree, OAK at NO

See New Orleans team defensive statistics from 2015 -- a.k.a. last in points allowed and 31st versus both the run and pass. In this game, while Drew Brees is lighting up Oakland's secondary at home, Mr. Crabtree will be welcoming numerous targets against a secondary focused on Amari Cooper. A miserable excuse for a secondary, I might add.

Mike Wallace, BAL vs. BUF

Steve Smith, Sr. and Breshad Perriman are not quite full strength yet. The Buffalo Bills are FAR from full strength, particularly on Rex's defense (sorry, Rob, this will never really be your toy). And as it turns out, Joe Flacco is back from his ACL injury. With little pass rush in his face, and not much besides Stephon Gilmore on the back end, expect Flacco to shake the rust off his deep ball to the still blazing fast Wallace – a few times, in fact.

Tight End

Julius Thomas, JAC vs. GB

The Packers will be starting a rookie linebacker in coverage on a tight end that has multiple seasons with double-digit touchdowns. Sure, those big scoring seasons came from Peyton Manning, but Blake Bortles may very well be the next Big Ben. Since the Green Bay secondary will have its hands full with the Allen brothers, this could be Thomas' week to shine in a potential shootout.

Dwayne Allen, IND vs. DET

The Lions tied for last in touchdowns allowed to tight ends in 2015. In 2014, when Andrew Luck was, well, Andrew Luck, he threw eight touchdowns to Allen, one of his favorite red zone targets. You do the math.

DOWNGRADE

Quarterback

Cam Newton, CAR at DEN

The Broncos D will take a step back. And betting against a highly motivated Cam is like playing with fire. But with Kelvin Benjamin on a snap count, and the defending Super Bowl champs at home, expectations for last year's MVP must be tempered against Von Miller and Co. That doesn't mean he's on your bench. Rather, it means, in a deep quarterback pool, "Super Cam" is likely not a top-10 play Week 1.

Blake Bortles, JAC vs. GB

Sure, Bortles was a fantasy stud in his second season and has the weapons to continue climbing the quarterback ladder, but that momentum may have to wait until Week 2. Clay Matthews is back at outside linebacker to cause QBs everywhere headaches, the Green Bay secondary is loaded with playmaking ballhawks, and that Aaron Rodgers guy is going to control the ball, shootout or otherwise.

Andy Dalton, CIN at NYJ

Dalton was a top-10 fantasy quarterback when healthy last year, but he now has to break in several new weapons against a mean defensive line and a secondary still sporting the likes of Darrelle Revis limiting No. 1's. Without Tyler Eifert (ankle) to start the season, that's too much to ask for good numbers.

Running Back

C.J. Anderson, DEN vs. CAR

The Panthers will happily sell out to stop the run with Trevor Siemian making his first career start. Though this could be a battle of will with Anderson getting fed early and often, I'll take the loaded Carolina front seven on this one, led by stellar space-eater Kawann Short and the all-world Luke Kuechly.

Jeremy Hill, CIN at NYJ

Three first-round draft picks the Jets surprisingly nailed currently patrol the trenches in a vicious Todd Bowles defense, and that mauling triumvirate will keep the Jets among the top run-stopping units this year yet again. However, while Hill certainly has plenty of motivation entering 2016 on the heels of an inglorious playoff performance, he may need to wait a week to translate "want-to" into "do-do". (That's right, I somehow worked do-do into a fantasy football column; if you're reading this right now and wondering, yes, I am damn proud.)

Thomas Rawls, SEA vs. MIA

Rawls could evolve into a fantasy superstar this year. He certainly showed he has the tools do so in his unexpected rookie explosion, but there's simply too much working against him this week. Starting with the ankle injury, there's also Christine Michael's preseason revival, Rawls' second-place listing on the team's first official depth chart, and some guy named Ndamukong Suh anchoring the opposing defensive line. It may prove wise to take a "wait and see" approach with Rawls when making Week 1 lineup decisions.

Wide Receiver

Kelvin Benjamin, CAR at DEN

Just in case anyone forgot, the Broncos shut down essentially every receiver they played last year not named Antonio Brown. What's more, Von Miller is still around to continuously pester Newton in the pocket yet again. Combined with the belief that Benjamin will be on a limited snap count as he works his way back from last season's ACL injury, Week 1 may not be a fruitful week for the Florida State product.

Jarvis Landry, MIA at SEA

Landry catches a ton of balls. That's a fact, and that trend will likely continue into the 2016 campaign. However, the more things change, the more things stay the same … and the latter is darn true for a Seattle secondary that may be even better than in years past. In short, Week 1 may be Landry's lowest output of the season.

A.J. Green, CIN at NYJ

It won't just be old man Revis shadowing Green's every move; the Jets' secondary is not about to concern themselves with the rookies and castaways that make up the supporting cast for Cincinnati's All-Pro talent. That is, if Gang Green is truly attempting to shut down one of 2015's best offenses. Ultimately, constant double teams will likely slow down both Green and the Bengals en route to a potential 0-1 start for the perennial AFC North contenders.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski, NE at AZ

Jimmy Garoppolo is simply not ready to make his professional debut. He's never started a game before, let alone throw a pass to Gronkowski in live action, yet he's now tasked with doing battle against an aggressive and well-coached Cardinals defense. No thank you. Gronk is not a top-5 tight end Week 1, and could easily finish outside the top-10 tight ends when the weekend is all said and done.