This article is part of our Breakfast Table series.
From: Michael Salfino
Date: Wed, Sep 18, 2013 at 12:02 PM
Subject: Week 3 Breakfast
To: scott pianowski
Jets-Patriots went down exactly like we both expected. Maybe we should agree more often. Brady is a Hall of Famer, but this is a test for what he can generate with sub-par receivers like Peyton Manning had to deal with for all of 2010.
The running games are stuck in neutral this year, but why does anyone care? When teams average under 3.5 yards per carry since 2012, they have a .501 winning percentage. When they average over 4.5, they have a .508 winning percentage. It's such a passing league.
Stats, LLC researched a Take A Number I wrote for the Journal on Eli Manning, where we were looking at his QB rating the last 12 games. While that may be an arbitrary starting point (but it is a pretty big sample), the key takeaway from me is that when a QB has an 80 passer rating or less, teams are 89-197. When the rating is 90 or more, it's 203-88. What's broken about passer rating, by the way? Not sure why ESPN trying (in vain) to replace it with a metric that focuses on "clutch." Does anyone have any evidence in any sport that clutch beyond the base rate actually exists?
I've persuaded Pro-Football-Reference to include net yards per pass attempt in their team game finder. Now, we can see what team's record above and below YPA thresholds like we