Ok, it's time to go on record with a bunch of World Cup predictions. I don't mind going out on a limb and getting laughed at. If you're going to call me out later, tack on your own predictions below now.
Holland Wins – I'm betting Holland anyway at 10/1 to 12/1.
If you look at the top teams, Holland, Germany, and Argentina should have the easiest paths to the quarterfinals. Beyond the quarters, Holland has as good a shot as anybody. Germany's strikers are out-of-form, and Michael Ballack won't be there to supply the ball. Argentina's manager, Diego Maradona, is inexperienced and potentially insane.
Is Holland the best team? Probably not. Argentina's on-field product is likely better. Spain and Brazil are better for sure, but these teams could play each other in the round-of-16. If Spain avoids Brazil, Spain likely see Portugal. That's winnable, but not a favourable draw. If Portugal beats Brazil, they're an immediate dark horse—but they see Holland in the quarters.
France and England will each lose the first tough knockout game they get.
France is a mess, and I continue to claim that England is overrated. France might well lose to Uruguay on Friday, and if that happens everybody will be fading them. England should advance to the knockouts in relative style, but will need favorable results elsewhere to get opponents they can beat.
All five South American teams reach the round of 16; the Asian teams are all going home after three games.
The possible exception is the technically "Asian" team Australia, who could sneak past Serbia as Group D runners-up. The Koreas and Japan are very weak.
We're about to see a renaissance of South American soccer outside Brazil and Argentina. It's a little bit like Portugal's "Golden Generation": over the last ten years we've seen the age-group teams of Chile, Uruguay, and Paraguay get results on the international stage. Those players are now well into their 20s. The Portugal teams never won a major international tournament. That may be a bridge too far for these countries too, but they're going to make a lot of noise.
African teams will do poorly, as usual.
One African team usually makes a little splash, but it's always tough to guess which one beforehand. It won't be Algeria or Ghana. That leaves the South African hosts, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Nigeria should have the easiest time coming out of its group, although no host team in the modern era has failed to do so. Nigeria should have a sniff in its round-of-16 clash as well, so if any African team is to go really deep, I think that's the one. I would be shocked to see any of them make the semis. Nigeria is the only team with a sniff at the quarters.
The USA goes out in the group stage.
Everybody is going to beat Algeria. I think the USA draws the short straw against England and a very disciplined Slovenia side. If the USA somehow progresses, it's likely Germany next, and the USA would be embarrassed there.