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Dealing From Strength

The roster is basically solid top to bottom, but the big win so far has been my pitching staff. The rotation features Josh Johnson, Aaron Harang, Jair Jurrjens, Paul Maholm, Max Scherzer and Randy Wolf. I also have Ross Ohlendorf and James McDonald on the bench and just added Felipe Paulino through FAAB. That group is deep and decently talanted, and while there are almost certainly a couple of unsustainable early season starts in there I have enough depth to survive, and guys like Scherzer could easily still step up. The bullpen isn't closer-heavy (only Matt Capps as a full-timer) but with Rafael Soriano, Jason Motte and Tony Pena on hand as well I'm not too worried about saves, especially in a league where a few teams have punted the category, either by choice or by circumstance (another owner had only one closer too, and it was Huston Street).

My offense, however, has been merely good, not great. I expect improvement (given that my best hitter so far has been Fred Lewis guys like Geovanny Soto, Jay Bruce and Chipper Jones damn well better improve) and I've had some good fortune already (Dexter Fowler, a $1 end of auction lottery ticket, is already paying off), but the group could use some help. The one weak spot seems to be middle infield. Felipe Lopez and Yunel Escobar have hit well enough as the starters but Lopez could fall off a cliff in a hurry, and my MI spot has been mix-and-match so far (first Ronnie Belliard, then Everth Cabrera, and now Anderson Hernandez). My outfield depth is OK and while I wouldn't mind someone who can play 3B to spell Chipper during his inevitable DL stints I can make do with Belliard in that role while keeping an eye on the free agent pool (I had Jeff Baker for that purpose but cut him loose to grab Paulino, and guys like Joe Thurston and Brian Barden are long gone.)

So with those evaluations in mind, I've started looking around for potential trading partners who might be willing to deal a middle infielder for a starting pitcher.

First order of business is to look for MIs who are badly underperforming. Two names jump out at me immediately: Brandon Phillips, off to a rousing .158 start at the plate with just one home run and one steal; and J.J. Hardy, hitting a robust .114 out of the gate. Hardy's back (not a huge concern) explains his numbers while Phillips has been healthy expect for a touch of the flu and, if anything, has better internal numbers than normal -- his walks are way up so far. Both owners, fortunately, also need pitching. Phillips' owners are stuck trotting out quality arms like Chan Ho Park and Todd Wellemeyer, with Barry Zito around (presumably as insurance, or possibly as negative reinforcement). Hardy's owners are dealing with Cole Hamels' ugly start and just lost Andrew Miller to the DL, but also just added Jordan Zimmermann from the minors, so they might be a little more willing to ride out the storm.

Still, those seem like the two most promising targets. Of my pitchers, the one I'd most like to move is Jurrjens. He doesn't have the strikeout upside of some of my other arms, and while his ERA and WHIP are solid so far his walk rate has be a bit nervous and he doesn't exactly have a long track record. Of course in a less savvy league I might try to cash in on Ohlendorf's great start against the Marlins Monday, but that won't happen here.

So, I've fired out two offers, straight up 1-for-1's, Jurrjens for Hardy (within the ballpark of reasonable, at least) and Jurrjens for Phillips, to hopefully get the ball rolling on negotiations. I'd be utterly shocked if the Phillips offer is accepted, but it might be just enough to get them thinking about what they would want back for him. We'll see how it goes.