NBA Return: Best-Case/Worst-Case for Western Conference Teams

As seeding games get underway from Orlando on Thursday night, Nick Whalen and Alex Barutha lay out their best- and worst-case scenarios for each of the 22 teams.

Dallas Mavericks

Best case: Dodging the Clippers in Round 1

I'm a believer in the Mavericks as a darkhorse Western Conference Finals team, but I am not a believer in them defeating the Clippers in the first round. Dallas has the 10th-best net rating (-2.4) against top-10 teams, and the Mavericks are +11.3 when Luka Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. are all on the court. They're really good, but they're really inexperienced. I don't think they'd get destroyed against the Clippers since Doncic is a top-10 player, but I do not see a scenario where they'd win the series. Against other teams, it's a different story.

Worst case: Facing the Clippers in Round 1

The Clippers are a powerhouse when fully healthy. As good as Doncic is, he's probably not good enough to carry the Mavs over the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, especially in his first playoff series in the NBA. One of those two players would likely be checking Doncic at all times, and can we really trust Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. to pick up enough slack?

Denver Nuggets

Best case: Michael Porter Jr. has a role in a Finals appearance

Having the ninth-best point differential (+3.0) in the league, Denver can be labeled a fringe title contender. They have an elite talent in Nikola Jokic, a strong veteran in Paul Millsap and an up-and-coming guard in Jamal Murray, plus one of the deepest benches in the league. That bench includes Porter Jr., a former top prospect who slipped in the draft due to injury concerns. He made his debut this season, and there were stretches where his talent was obvious. In the 14 games in which he saw 20-plus minutes, he averaged 15.0 points on 10.3 shots, 8.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.5 combined steals-plus-blocks. If Porter Jr. can continue that kind of scoring and rebounding ability in the postseason, it could certainly help Denver make the Finals, and it would cement him as one of the team's core options moving forward.

Worst case: Getting bounced in the First Round

As is the case with the Western Conference, the first round is almost never easy. Denver will likely face either Oklahoma City, Houston or Dallas. All of those teams are extremely capable and could upset the Nuggets. Denver struggled through the first round last season against the Spurs and couldn't close against the Blazers. Losing in the first round would make it feel like the team is stagnant and shouldn't be taken seriously until upgrades are made, even if their opponent is another good team.

Houston Rockets

Best case: Winning the NBA Finals

While the most likely scenario seems to be a Milwaukee vs. Los Angeles Finals, most sportsbooks have the Rockets as the third-most likely team to emerge from the West. The Rockets have two former MVPs on their roster, which obviously gives them one of the highest ceilings in the NBA. Importantly, Houston has also played well against tough competition. Against top-10 teams, the Rockets have the fourth-best point differential (+0.8). It will be interesting to see if the small-ball experiment can work against some of the most-skilled bigs in the league across a seven-game series, but the upside is well-demonstrated.

Worst case: Bounced in the First Round, small-ball doesn't work

The First Round in the West is almost never a cakewalk, but this feels like it has implications for Houston, who have done everything they can to embrace one of the most extreme styles of basketball we've ever seen. The numbers suggest it should hold up, but what if it's just not a workable strategy in the playoffs when consistently going up against the best bigs in the NBA over the course of a series? Will the Rockets change course, or continue to embrace and tinker with small-ball?

LA Clippers

Best case: Winning the title

The Clippers have the defending Finals MVP, a top-three finisher in last season's MVP balloting, and the deepest roster among the elite teams. They've been my pick to win the Finals since August, and that hasn't changed. If they don't win the title, the Clips won't face the same scrutiny as the team they share a building with, but finishing the job would kick off a new chapter in the history of Los Angeles basketball.

Worst case: Losing before the Conference Finals

The two Los Angeles teams are likely on a collision course for a Conference Finals matchup, but both teams are capable of being upset along the way. The Clippers weren't quite as dominant on either end as most expected during the regular season, and it's unclear if the long layoff will alleviate or exacerbate those issues. On top of that, both of the Clippers' All-Stars carry injury concerns. Doc Rivers was able to manage Kawhi Leonard and Paul George's respective workloads during the regular season, but how will Leonard, in particular, react to an accelerated postseason schedule? 

LA Lakers

Best case: Winning the title

This one is obvious. The Lakers have two of the seven best players in the world, and while the supporting cast is depleted, it's still championship or bust. Navigating through the deep Western Conference won't be a cake walk, but the Lakers are a veteran-laden team with the size to match up with anyone. Focus shouldn't be an issue, but we'll see how much losing a significant homecourt advantage throughout the playoffs ends up affecting the Lakers.

Worst case: Not making the Finals

There's always the chance the Lakers could get tripped up by a team like Portland or Houston or Dallas along the way, but dating back to October, this entire season has been building toward an LA vs. LA Western Conference Finals. If the Lakers don't make it that far, "worst case" might not be enough to describe the reaction. But even losing to a loaded Clippers team on the brink of the Finals would be a disappointment. When 35-year-old LeBron James is on your roster, anything short of a title has to be viewed as a failure.

Memphis Grizzlies

Best case: Defending the eighth seed

Who knows what would have transpired over the final month of the regular season, had it continued as normal. But the Grizzlies were -- and still are -- in the driver's seat for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. With five other teams nipping at their heels, the Grizzlies will have their work cut out for them. Even if the eight seeding games go disastrously, Memphis will almost certainly have a chance to play its way into the postseason. What happens after that could be ugly, but just getting that far would be an immense success for a young team that finished 16 games under .500 a year ago.

Worst case: Missing the playoffs

OK, so maybe the actual worst case is Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson abruptly and inexplicably retiring from professional basketball. But realistically, the Grizzlies don't have much to lose. To some degree, they're already playing with house money. And while falling out of the postseason would be a disappointment, it wouldn't be overly devastating. Morant is 20. Jackson is 20. Brandon Clarke is 23. This team's best years are ahead of it.

New Orleans Pelicans

Best case: Force a play-in tournament

Whether or not you believe the NBA explicitly structured the restart to include the Pelicans, the league would clearly be OK with a New Orleans-Los Angeles first-round series. Needing to stay within 4.0 games of Memphis at the end of seeding games, the Pels will face a relatively easy schedule, but they'll also need to fend off Portland and Sacramento. Falling to Utah on Thursday was a rough way to start, and a loss to the Clippers on Saturday could make Monday's meeting with the Grizzlies a near must-win.

Worst case: Fall more than 4.0 games behind Memphis

As much as the league, and fans alike, may want Zion vs. LeBron in Round 1, the Pelicans failing to make the playoffs is probably the safer bet. Even if they finish within 4.0 games, they still need to outperform four other teams, and then win two straight games against the incumbent eighth seed. 

Oklahoma City Thunder

Best case: Pushing one of the LA teams in Round 2

Unless the Clippers tumble all the way down to the fourth or fifth seed, OKC would almost certainly draw one of the Los Angeles teams in Round 2, should it make it through Round 1. Winning two playoff series is likely too much to ask, but the Thunder would be no push-over for either the Lakers or the Clippers. Plus, the level of competitiveness in a Paul vs. LeBron James playoff series would be off the charts.

Worst case: Bowing out in Round 1

After entering the year with relatively low expectations, the Thunder are playing with house money. Even a loss in Round 1 would constitute a successful season. With that said, by now the feel-good story has worn off, and the Thunder view themselves as a legitimate threat to teams like Utah, Houston and Denver. Entering Orlando 16 games over .500, Chris Paul and Co. should rightfully expect to win a first-round series, and if that doesn't happen, it would be a minor disappointment.

Phoenix Suns

Best case: Making a push for the eighth seed

No one is talking about the Suns whatsoever, but they are just 2.0 games behind the Pelicans, and 2.5 behind Portland and Sacramento. Odds are, the Suns don't make a serious push for the final playoff spot, but they're arguably bringing more to the table, talent-wise, than a few of the teams ahead of them. Phoenix has perpetually underachieved for the last decade, but this group could make things interesting  -- especially if they're able to beat Washington on Friday to pull within a game of the Pelicans.

Worst case: Finishing last among the 22 teams in Orlando

Entering Orlando, the Suns are ahead of only the Wizards in win percentage. Should they fall out of playoff contention early, motivation could quickly dwindle as the organization shifts its focus to 2020-21. After facing Washington in the opener, Phoenix's schedule picks up considerably, with dates against the Mavs, Clippers, Pacers, Heat, Thunder, Sixers and Mavs (again) to finish. 

Portland Trail Blazers

Best case: Pulling a Round 1 upset

If the Blazers are able to qualify for the playoffs, they'll be significantly more dangerous than the average eighth seed. Ravaged by injuries for much of the season, the Blazers now have both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back in the fold. Losing Trevor Ariza, who opted out of the restart, is a major blow on the wing, but the Blazers still have the firepower to give the Lakers some trouble in Round 1. LeBron James and Anthony Davis would be the two best players in that series, but Portland would have the advantage in the backcourt.

Worst case: Falling short of the playoffs

For as much upside as Portland has, Nurkic hasn't played in an NBA game in 16 months. Collins hasn't played since October, and Damian Lillard enters the seeding games dealing with a foot injury. The lack of wing defenders -- and overall depth -- looms as a major issue, and Portland faces a difficult schedule that includes consecutive matchups against Boston, Houston, Denver, the Clippers, Philadelphia and Dallas.

Sacramento Kings

Best case: Making the playoffs

The Kings, Pelicans and Trail Blazers are all 3.5 games back from the Grizzlies. While Portland and New Orleans are the most likely to usurp Memphis for the eighth seed, the Kings do have a chance. Sacramento has a relatively deep roster and a solid starting five led by De'Aaron Fox, who, since the New Year, has averaged 22.3 points on 16.7 shots, 6.8 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 2.2 combined steals-plus-blocks. Ultimately, Sacramento will need to play its best basketball of the year to make the postseason.

Worst case: Failing to be competitive

The Kings are where they are in the standings because they don't excel at anything. They're 20th in offense and 19th in defense. The Kings also can't find a way to make their No. 1 option, De'Aaron Fox, highly effective. The team is -1.0 points per 100 possessions worse when he's on the court. If that doesn't change, the front office might be looking at some changes. 

San Antonio Spurs

Best case: Proving they can be competitive without LaMarcus Aldridge

The Spurs have all but been written off from making the playoffs without Aldridge given their place in the standings. However, San Antonio still has an opportunity to prove they can be a competitive team without Aldridge, which would help the team ease into the inevitable rebuild that's around the corner. The bubble is a great opportunity for guys like Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker and Jakob Poeltl to play in games against opposing teams' starters.

Worst case: The young core does not look good

The Spurs have one of the least inspiring young cores in the league, and if it continues to look subpar during the seeding games, that would be concerning. Dejounte Murray is promising, but the team is 9.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him the court. They're 10.7 points worse with Bryn Forbes on the court. Even lineups with both Murray and Derrick White are an abysmal -12.7.

Utah Jazz

Best case: Mike Conley steps up, a Conference Finals berth

Losing Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist) for the season is significant, but it's possible the Jazz can get by. The duo of Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert is still effective, and the extra layoff may have given Mike Conley an opportunity to get fresh ahead of a playoff run. Assuming Conley can be better, and Joe Ingles and Jordan Clarkson can help make up for the absence of Bogdanovic offensively, the Jazz have the top-end talent to make a run at the Western Conference Finals.

Worst case: Losing in the first round

Maybe Conley is fresher for the restart, but will that actually be able to make up for the loss of Bogdanovic? With Bogdanovic off the court, Utah posts a -3.5 net rating, and it actually drops down to -11.0 once you put Mitchell and Gobert on the court. Bogdanovic has proven to be fundamental to the Jazz, and it could be his absence that leads to a downfall in the playoffs as early as the first round. They don't have anyone to make up for his volume scoring ability on the wing.