This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Most of the DFS world will be cracking up Showdown lineups for the Big Game tonight (and so will I), but the primary NBA slate offers us three interesting games.
MIL (-12) vs. PHO O/U:233.5
HOU (-5) vs. NO O/U: 245.5
TOR (-10.5) vs. CHI 217.5
The O/U line clearly points the way to the best value tonight, as there's a quartet of guys in the NO/HOU matchup that are very chalky. Surprisingly, I found myself drawn to the CHI/TOR game in a quest for value, but overall I think my exposure is pretty evenly spread across all three games. I do plan on employing a couple of team stacks tonight, with New Orleans and Toronto as my favorite choices.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Giannis Antetokounmpo (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Things aren't looking good for Giannis on Sunday, as his injury on Friday seemed to really trouble him as he limped off the floor. This is a contest the Bucks should be able to handle without him, and I'd look to Khris Middleton ($7,800) to carry the team in Antetokounmpo's place.
Clint Capela (heel) OUT
I was among the number that watched as Isaiah Hartenstein failed to register a single fantasy point, torpedoing one of my lineups. I won't make that mistake again, so I think I'll ignore that position for Houston altogether. Danuel House Jr. ($4,100) is the guy who's experienced the most significant bump in Capela's absence.
Ricky Rubio (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
Rubio's successfully played through this ankle injury before, but the early start on Sunday may not give him sufficient time to get game-ready. While Devin Booker ($8,700) would be the more reliable and steady option here, you've got a lot of bargain value available if Rubio sits, with Ty Jerome ($3,100) looking like the most viable option.
Russell Westbrook, HOU ($10,200) vs. NO
While I'm never going to suggest fading James Harden ($11,200), I think Westbrook sets up better against the Pelicans' defense on Sunday. Harden will find himself squaring off against a combo of Jrue Holiday and Brandon Ingram, and I think Westbrook's matchup against Lonzo Ball is a more exploitative play for Houston's backcourt. The $1,000 discount is the way to go because I think Harden and Westbrook's totals will be interchangeable, meaning that you aren't getting your money's worth with the 1k bump.
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($9,100) vs. CHI
The Bulls are working with a decimated frontcourt that should be ripe for the picking, and I'm willing to endorse both Siakam and Serge Ibaka ($5,200) as options for the Raptors. My only knock on Siakam is his current floor, which doesn't come close to 5x value. On a small slate like this, one's pivot options at each position are shallow so I'm willing to overlook the point-per-dollar deficiency.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Once again, keep Khris Middleton ($7,800) in mind in this category. If Giannis stays out, he's a lock for me.
Zion Williamson, NO ($7,700) @ HOU
You can bet Williamson is itching to prove his mettle against Harden and Westbrook, and the Rockets' interior is extremely vulnerable tonight without Clint Capela. I don't think Houston will be able to keep Williamson from slashing into the paint tonight, as they are almost as soft as Chicago looks today in the frontcourt.
Lonzo Ball, NO ($7,000) @ HOU
The emergence of Zion Williamson has transformed New Orleans in many ways, the most glaring of which is a drop-off for Brandon Ingram. But the upgrade in the interior has only bolstered Ball's ability to rack up dimes. He's dished out a staggering 30 assists over the past three games, and when you're generating that kind of assist volume you don't have to do much elsewhere to attain a respectable number. Ball also has a two-game average of 55 DKFP against a Houston team that isn't particularly tough against opposing backcourts.
Kyle Lowry, TOR ($6,900) vs. CHI
I gave some thought to Fred VanVleet ($7,300) as well, but I eventually settled on Lowry for the endorsement. Toronto will win this game by getting the ball inside and, between the two guards, I like Lowry's assist numbers over Van Vleet's. There's no question VanVleet is a shot creator and has comparable averages to Lowry, but I will just take the $400 discount and run with it. I may opt for a Toronto stack, and that would definitely include both of them.
Also consider: Kelly Oubre Jr., PHO ($6,400)
Donte DiVincenzo, MIL ($4,000) vs. PHO
DiVincenzo's beaten 5x value in two straight games and I suspect his usage will remain high enough to get there today against Phoenix - especially in the second half. The Suns have problems defending the three, so I suspect the Bulls will try to get their guards going from beyond the arc tonight, especially if they are without Antetokounmpo.
Luke Kornet, CHI ($3,700) @ TOR
I think making a Chicago reach or two will be necessary due to the glut of production available in the 7k range - even though we'll have to hold our nose while we do it. Kornet is Chicago's only remaining reasonable option at center, although an argument could be made for Chandler Hutchison ($3,400) if he plays as expected. A lot of people will reach to Thaddeus Young but I think his price is just too high tonight, which leaves us Kornet. It sounds like I'm extremely down on him, but it's really not that bad for the price if you look at his recent production. He's yielded 8x value in a couple of games and while I don't think he'll have that kind of success against Toronto, I'd be perfectly happy with a DKFP score in the mid 20s. Westbrook, Middleton and Siakam/Ibaka will be able to make up the deficit here, especially in cash lineups.