This article is part of our NBA DFS Breakdown series.
There's just a three-game slate for us tonight. While that makes the research easier, there's more game theory involved for GPPs, and we need to be extra weary of chalk plays. Atlanta at Miami should feature some highly-owned stars, as it has the highest over/under on the slate, not to mention the return of Jimmy Butler. LeBron James and Anthony Davis will always get plenty of ownership. So maybe the place to look is Dallas at Denver, plus maybe some players from the Grizzlies side of the Memphis at Los Angeles game.
Hawks at Heat (-8.0)
|Derrick Jones Jr.||F||Groin||Out||10/31/2019|
|James Johnson||F||Coach's Decision||Out||10/31/2019|
Contrarian Gambles: Anyone whose minutes/usage Butler may take (Winslow, Nunn, Dragic, Herro), possibly a Hawks' stack on the second half of a back-to-back against a solid Heat defense
The Hawks enter Tuesday's game on the second half of a back-to-back, losing to a strong 76ers team by just two points Monday. Young and Collins continue to be the centerpieces of the 2-1 Hawks, but rookie De'Andre Hunter stepped his game up against Philly. He played 30 minutes and posted 14 points, nine rebounds, one assist and one steal (25.3 FP), and he's now only the third member of the Hawks that has contributed at least 10% of the team's fantasy points on any given night.
Miami (2-1) has been thriving off of a balanced approach, with Winslow, Adebayo, Nunn and Dragic each accounting for at least 10% of the team's fantasy output. It's not clear how adding Butler to the mix will change things, but it would be surprising to see Winslow, Nunn, Dragic and Herro maintain the same level of production. Adebayo's usage is probably safe, and it's possible he begins to play better with another pick-and-roll threat in the mix. It's worth noting that the Heat are, surprisingly, leading the NBA in pace. Last season, they ranked 23rd. We'll see if adding Butler to the mix slows the team down and allows them to play more methodically.
Mavericks at Nuggets (-6.0)
Contrarian Gambles: Paul Millsap (production has been decreasing, hasn't seen more than 24 minutes in each of the past two games)
The Mavericks (2-1) currently have the NBA's fourth-best offense, posting 111.2 points per 100 possessions. That's reflected in the amount of legitimate DFS options on the team, with seven players having posted at least 24 fantasy points in one of the Mavs' first three contests. Building a stars-and-scrubs lineup with a few low-priced Dallas players could pay off. Obviously, Doncic and Porzingis are legitimate options every time they're on the slate.
Denver (3-0) has gotten legitimate DFS production from, somehow, even more players. Eight Nuggets players have posted at least 25 FP in one game so far this season. While the Nuggets have only been an average offensive team thus far, it's becoming clear that their depth is legitimate. Like Dallas, grabbing some depth from Denver in a stars-and-scrubs build might be the way to go, especially in cash games.
Grizzlies at Lakers (-12.0)
|Andre Iguodala||F||Not Injury Related||Out||11/16/2019|
Contrarian Gambles: Jonas Valanciunas
The Grizzlies (1-2) aren't a team to have a lot of confidence in, as they're full of young players and are posting the NBA's 24th-best offense and 19th-best defense. Memphis is also tough to predict, as five players are averaging at least 10% of the team's fantasy points. Some value might open up, however, as Anderson is questionable with a calf injury. When he's off the court, Brooks garners a 4.2% usage bump and an extra 0.5 FP/min. Crowder has seen a team-high 81.4 minutes with Anderson off the court. Both represent value options on the slate that could fly under the radar.
Aside from opening night's loss to the Clippers, the Lakers (2-1) have looked great, boasting the 12th-best offensive rating and the 11th-best defensive rating in the league. Davis and LeBron are playing well, and Howard notably broke out against the Hornets, posting 16 points, 10 boards, four blocks and one assist (40.5 FP) across 22 minutes. It appears he could be the favored center at this point, though that job will probably fluctuate throughout the season.