NBA Draft Kit: Blocks and Steals Targets

NBA Draft Kit: Blocks and Steals Targets

This article is part of our NBA Draft Kit series.

Defense wins championships.

Points are glamorous. Rebounds and assists are stable and (relatively) predictable. In the current era of NBA offenses, even the coaches are draining two threes per game. But defense wins championships.

Applying that old adage to fantasy basketball may seem silly, but there is some legitimacy to it. Blocks have always been hard to come by, but they've become more concentrated among Fantasy's top 130 over recent seasons. If you mishandle blocks in your draft, waivers won't be able to make up the difference, and your team may require several trades to recover.

Meanwhile, the steals market has been relatively stable for years, but it is very unevenly distributed. Looking at last season's final ranks as though every 12 finishing spots constitutes one round, six of the top seven rounds included both: 1. At least one player in the top-15 in steals; and, 2. At least one player who averaged 0.8 steals or fewer (138 NBA players averaged at least 0.9 steals in 2017-18).

How you draft in these two categories could set your team up as a defensive juggernaut, or you could start the season at a disastrous disadvantage.

The Elite

Players with a chance to average at least 3.0 steals-plus-blocks (stocks) per game, including at least 1.0 in each category

Anthony Davis
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kawhi Leonard
Andre Drummond
Draymond Green
John Wall
DeMarcus Cousins

Selecting any of these guys (except Cousins) starts your team off with a solid baseline in both defensive categories. Davis and

Defense wins championships.

Points are glamorous. Rebounds and assists are stable and (relatively) predictable. In the current era of NBA offenses, even the coaches are draining two threes per game. But defense wins championships.

Applying that old adage to fantasy basketball may seem silly, but there is some legitimacy to it. Blocks have always been hard to come by, but they've become more concentrated among Fantasy's top 130 over recent seasons. If you mishandle blocks in your draft, waivers won't be able to make up the difference, and your team may require several trades to recover.

Meanwhile, the steals market has been relatively stable for years, but it is very unevenly distributed. Looking at last season's final ranks as though every 12 finishing spots constitutes one round, six of the top seven rounds included both: 1. At least one player in the top-15 in steals; and, 2. At least one player who averaged 0.8 steals or fewer (138 NBA players averaged at least 0.9 steals in 2017-18).

How you draft in these two categories could set your team up as a defensive juggernaut, or you could start the season at a disastrous disadvantage.

The Elite

Players with a chance to average at least 3.0 steals-plus-blocks (stocks) per game, including at least 1.0 in each category

Anthony Davis
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Kawhi Leonard
Andre Drummond
Draymond Green
John Wall
DeMarcus Cousins

Selecting any of these guys (except Cousins) starts your team off with a solid baseline in both defensive categories. Davis and Antetokounmpo are early-first-round values, while Leonard is someone to consider late in the first. Drummond and Green are both typically available into the third round. Davis is a little more specialized toward blocks, while Leonard is more specialized toward steals.

John Wall is usually going somewhere in the late second round, but his mention here comes with an important caveat: his block totals have been very inconsistent from year to year. He's averaged at least 0.8 blocks in half of his eight seasons, but interspersed among those are several seasons of 0.5 or 0.6 per game. If Wall is having one of his high-block seasons, then his nearly-one-block-per-game from the point guard spot is arguably more useful than 1.5 blocks from a center, since the value over a replacement point guard is so high.

DeMarcus Cousins is likely to miss the first three-to-five months of the season while recovering from an Achilles tear, but he should be back long before head-to-head leagues begin their playoffs. He's averaged at least 2.7 stocks -- steals and blocks -- in six of his eight NBA seasons. That is far better than anything else available late in drafts. He's harder to own in roto formats, but in head-to-head, he could be a defensive goldmine right when teams will need the help the most.

Kevin Durant and LeBron James

Players who are either Kevin Durant or LeBron James

Kevin Durant
LeBron James

These two are both great all-around Fantasy options, and both provide solid production in both steals and blocks. However, similar to Wall, their overall output does not always match their abilities. Both are likely to average at least 2.0 -- possibly even 2.5 -- stocks, but their production in each category is unpredictable. Drafting either ensures a solid defensive baseline, but you'll need more help in future rounds if you want to feel confident of being a top roster in either steals or blocks.

Durant has averaged similar blocks/steals numbers throughout most of his career, until last season when he shifted his focus toward accumulating blocks. He ended up among the league leaders in that category, while posting the worst steals numbers of his career. With a player so versatile in a lineup so deep, it's impossible to know whether his 2018-19 out will be closer to 2017-18 or to the rest of Durant's career.

James has typically been more of a thief, averaging roughly 1.5 steals (or more) through most of his career. He's had a few seasons with more than 1.0 blocks per game, but he's also had a few below 0.7. Last season was one of the most balanced of his career, with 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks. But what his numbers look like in 2018-19 will depend heavily on how he fits into coach Luke Walton's defensive scheme – and, frankly, how much James tries during the regular season. The four-time MVP's defensive effort has undeniably fallen off in recent years.

Elite in one, solid in the other

Players likely to rank in (or near) either the top five in blocks or the top 10 in steals, while averaging at least 1.0 in the other category.

Rudy Gobert
Ben Simmons
Robert Covington
Kristaps Porzingis

Gobert and Simmons are both late-second-round values, and their defensive abilities play a significant role in that steep price. Gobert led the NBA in blocks in 2016-17 and has averaged at least 2.2 per game since his sophomore season. Simmons ranked eighth in steals as a rookie. Covington is more of a fourth-round prospect, but he's averaged at least 1.4 steals since his second NBA season and finished inside the top 10 in the category in each of the past two seasons.

Porzingis' case is similar to that of Cousins. Porzingis is expected to miss at least the first three-to-five months of the season. However, if the Knicks are as dreadful as the remaining roster would imply, then he could end up missing the whole season as a precaution. If Porzingis returns at full strength, he's a top-five blocks prospect. All four of these players, if healthy and playing at least 30 minutes per game, are capable of averaging roughly 1.0 in a category that is not their specialty.

Strong in one, could be solid in the other

Players with a chance to rank in (or near) the either the top five in blocks or the top 10 in steals, while averaging close to 1.0 in the other category.

Clint Capela
Lonzo Ball

Capela's 1.9 blocks per game in 2017-18 were good for second on the NBA's official leaderboard, but that's only because Porzingis' 2.4 and Gobert's 2.3 per game did not qualify (too many missed games). To borrow the terminology from bicycling, Capela is good enough to be at the front of the peloton, but he's never shown an ability to separate himself from the pack. He's twice reached 0.8 steals per game, and never averaged more than 27.5 minutes, so he has a legitimate chance to come close to – if not exceed – 1.0 steals per game.

As with James, Ball's production could also be impacted by the radically reshaped Lakers. But Ball demonstrated as a rookie that he can nip at the heels of the game's elite ball-hawks, averaging 1.7 steals per game and looking much more capable on that end, overall, than most expected.

Both of these players are likely to get drafted by the middle of the fifth round, and in some leagues one or both will go much, much earlier.

Chance at 1.0/1.0

Players who might average 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals per game.

Josh Richardson
Steven Adams
Paul Millsap
Jusuf Nurkic*
Nikola Vucevic
Kyle Anderson
Jonathan Isaac
Willie Cauley-Stein
Nerlens Noel
Danny Green
Derrick Favors*
Maurice Harkless

Any fantasy roster that aims to dominate in both blocks and steals will probably need a couple of these players, whose values range from early-fourth to 12th-round fliers. They may not excel in either steals or blocks, but their cumulative production in both categories allows rosters to stay competitive in both categories, without sacrificing one or the other.

Richardson stands out as a player who almost deserves a blurb of his own above this one. He's likely to average closer to 1.5 steals, which is better than anyone else in this section (except Nurkic) is likely to attain in either category.

Richardson, Millsap, Nurkic, Adams and Vucevic are likely to get drafted in the fourth-through-sixth rounds. Anderson and Isaac are likely to come off the board a few rounds later, with Cauley-Stein probably a round or so after that. Noel, Green, Favors and Harkless are all late-round options, and in many leagues some of them will go undrafted.

Isaac, Noel, and Cauley-Stein all warrant additional attention because of their tremendous upside. Isaac and Noel are per-36 monsters but with uncertain roles on muddied depth charts (Noel, especially). Logic dictates that Cauley-Stein will see increased minutes as a starter for the Kings, but it has been decades since we could reasonably assume the Kings would act logically. If everything clicks for one of these players, they could be a top-60 overall commodity who averages more than 2.5 stocks per game.

Nurkic and Favors are denoted with asterisks. Nurkic is a near-elite source of blocks and has, at times, been a solid source of steals. But getting to 1.0 steals is actually relatively unlikely for him. Favors has the talent to average 1-and-1, and he could be listed alongside Capela and Ball if he plays enough minutes. At this point in his career, however, that's unlikely to happen. With that said, if you need defense and want to take a chance in the last round or two of your draft, you could do worse than hoping Favors rekindles the magic of 2012-16.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Rikleen
Rikleen writes the NBA column "Numbers Game," which decodes the math that underpins fantasy basketball and was a nominee for the 2016 FSWA Newcomer of the Year Award. A certified math teacher, Rikleen decided the field of education pays too well, so he left it for writing. He is a Boston College graduate living outside Boston.
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