Jarren Duran

27-Year-Old OutfielderOF

Boston Red Sox

2024 Stats

AVG

.304

RBI

Rest-of-Season Projections

AVG

RBI

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2024 Fantasy Outlook

In large part due to working with Dustin Pedroia in the spring, Duran displayed a positive change in attitude, not to mention a reworked swing. Even so, Duran opened the season with Triple-A Worcester before being called up in early April to add outfield depth following the wrist injury to Adam Duvall. Duran turned out to be more than depth as he became the regular center fielder, demonstrating much more hustle. Unfortunately, Duran was limited to only 102 games as he missed almost a quarter of the season after season-ending surgery on his left big toe. The league had begun to adjust, so the lost time makes it harder to evaluate the extent of Duran's break out. Through July 23, he batted .317/.367/.514, but afterwards, he posted a .219/.269/.370 line. Duran is expected to be ready for spring training and should be a regular in the outfield. There is no doubting his stolen base prowess, but his power and ability to get on base are unclear. He'll probably land closer to the early version, but don't expect a repeat of his pre-All-Star break production. Read Past Outlooks

RANKSFrom Preseason

#151

ADP

Overall

Dynasty

League Majors

Bats L

Throws R

40 Man Yes

Height 6'2"

Weight 187

DOB 9/5/1996

Born Corona, CA

College Long Beach State

Drafted 7th Rd 2018 BOS

Continues to rake

OFBoston Red Sox

April 6, 2024

Duran went 2-for-5 with a home run and two RBI in Friday's 8-6 win over the Angels.

ANALYSIS
Duran rescued the Red Sox, who had earlier blown a four-run lead, with a go-ahead home run in the eighth inning. He continued a hot stretch with a fourth consecutive multi-hit game, during which he's 11-for-17 with a homer, four RBI, four runs scored and four stolen bases.

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Batting Stats

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2024

2023

2022

2021

2024 MLB Game Log

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Scoring

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2023 MLB Game Log

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2022 MLB Game Log

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2021 MLB Game Log

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Minor League Game Log

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Batting Order Slot Breakdown

vs Right-Handed Pitchers

vs RHP

vs Left-Handed Pitchers

vs LHP

Left/Right Batting Splits

Since 2022

+14%

OPS vs RHP

2024

+28%

OPS vs LHP

2023

+12%

OPS vs RHP

2022

+54%

OPS vs RHP

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022vs Left	.679	120	9	1	14	4	.271	.333	.346
Since 2022vs Right	.777	552	70	11	50	33	.272	.326	.451
2024vs Left	.899	29	2	0	3	1	.375	.483	.417
2024vs Right	.705	59	8	1	4	5	.273	.305	.400
2023vs Left	.749	49	4	1	6	2	.289	.327	.422
2023vs Right	.841	312	42	7	34	22	.296	.349	.491
2022vs Left	.449	42	3	0	5	1	.184	.238	.211
2022vs Right	.690	181	20	3	12	6	.229	.293	.398
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Home/Away Batting Splits

Since 2022

+8%

OPS at Home

2024

+17%

OPS on Road

2023

+22%

OPS at Home

2022

+2%

OPS on Road

	OPS	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Since 2022Home	.790	344	43	6	34	17	.267	.334	.456
Since 2022Away	.729	328	36	6	30	20	.276	.320	.409
2024Home	.706	41	4	0	2	0	.250	.317	.389
2024Away	.823	47	6	1	5	6	.349	.404	.419
2023Home	.910	182	23	5	26	14	.315	.379	.531
2023Away	.748	179	23	3	14	10	.276	.313	.435
2022Home	.640	121	16	1	6	3	.202	.273	.367
2022Away	.652	102	7	2	11	4	.242	.294	.358
More Splits→	View More Split Stats

Stat Review

How does Jarren Duran compare to other hitters?

This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.

BB/K
Walk to strikeout ratio
BB Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
K Rate
The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
BABIP
Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
ISO
Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
AVG
Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
OBP
On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
SLG
Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
OPS
On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
wOBA
Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
Exit Velocity
The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
Hard Hit Rate
A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
Barrels/PA
The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
Expected BA
Expected Batting Average.
Expected SLG
Expected Slugging Percentage.
Sprint Speed
The speed of a runner from home to first, in feet per second.
Ground Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are on the ground.
Line Drive %
The percentage of balls put in play that are line drives.
Fly Ball %
The percentage of balls put in play that are fly balls.

BB/K

0.32

BB Rate

6.8%

K Rate

21.6%

BABIP

.383

ISO

.101

AVG

.304

OBP

.364

SLG

.405

OPS

.769

wOBA

.341

Exit Velocity

90.9 mph

Hard Hit Rate

32.8%

Barrels/PA

3.4%

Expected BA

.315

Expected SLG

.434

Sprint Speed

Ground Ball %

45.9%

Line Drive %

27.9%

Fly Ball %

26.2%

Prospect Rankings History

View Complete Jarren Duran Prospect Ranking History

Advanced Batting Stats

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Additional Stats

Games By Position

Defensive Stats

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Batted Ball Stats

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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers

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Latest Fantasy Rumors

San Diego has inquired

OFBoston Red Sox

February 9, 2024

The Padres have discussed a possible Duran trade with the Red Sox, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.

ANALYSIS
Boston's willingness to trade Duran is unclear, but if there's a chance he's dealt, San Diego certainly makes sense as a landing spot. The Padres are desperately looking for outfield help and would prefer it be a left-handed hitter. Duran is coming off a mini-breakout in 2023 and is under team control through 2028, so the Padres would have to give up a lot in return.

See All MLB Rumors

Past Fantasy Outlooks

2023

2022

2021

Two years ago, Duran was quite an interesting prospect, but his star has fallen far after a pair of unsuccessful attempts to establish himself at the big-league level. His .645 OPS in 58 games last season at least represented a step up from his .578 OPS in 33 games the year prior, but it was nowhere near good enough for a player whose speed hasn't translated into even average defense in center field. Duran can't claim to have gotten particularly unlucky, as his .219 xBA was a near match for his actual .221 batting average. His strikeout rate fell by over seven points compared to his major-league debut but still sat at 28.3%, while his 7.7% barrel rate was merely average. A modest step forward on both sides of the ball could turn Duran into a competent big-league regular, but he's now 26 years old, so a modest step may be as much as it's fair to expect. If he earns a role, his speed should help fantasy teams, but his performance suggests that even a bench spot isn't a lock.

The time to cash out Duran in dynasty leagues was in early July, prior to his MLB debut, when some were valuing him as a top-50 prospect. While his value has fallen since then, there's still an argument for getting what you can for him this winter. His .258/.357/.516 slash line at Triple-A looks fine for a hitter with his combination of above-average raw power and plus-plus speed, but Duran's 23.3 K% was a poor mark at that level for a player who turned 25 in September. Given the gap between Triple-A pitching and major-league pitching, it should not have come as a surprise that he went on to log a 35.7 K% and 3.6 BB% in his first 112 MLB plate appearances. In addition to significant hit tool concerns, Duran's outfield defense is quite poor, so it's difficult to see a contending team like the Red Sox gifting him playing time in the short term. They will very likely bring in one, if not two superior outfielders after the lockout, and even players of Christian Arroyo's caliber could get playing time over Duran barring some major improvements in the field or at the plate.

Few teams were better at leaking impressive footage of their prospects at the alternate training site than the Red Sox, and Duran had his share of highlights that captured burgeoning power. His 70-grade speed is the main reason he is a prospect of note for dynasty leagues. Unfortunately, he's a shaky defender in center field, even with that speed, so he needs to hit. He used to be a slash-and-dash leadoff type, but after overhauling his swing, he is now able to launch balls out to the pull side. Duran was a strong contact hitter in the lower levels, but his new swing requires more precise timing, which puts his eventual batting averages into question. He performed poorly as an age-appropriate hitter at Double-A and in the Arizona Fall League in 2019, and now that he is entering his age-24 season, it's time for him to produce at the plate in games against pitchers from outside the organization.

More Fantasy News

Four hits in win

OFBoston Red Sox

April 4, 2024

Duran went 4-for-4 in Wednesday's 1-0 win over the Athletics.