Luis Castillo
Luis Castillo
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
Cincinnati Reds
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Spring training can be helpful in evaluating a pitcher, but it does come with some risks. Castillo sported a 12.46 ERA over four Cactus League appearances amid reports that his velocity was down. It turned out that Castillo was working on improving his slider, rather than relying more on his two best pitches, his changeup and four-seamer. Given the disparity between Castllo's first half of 2018 when his velocity was down to his second-half when the velocity was up, it was natural to be concerned. That concern cost you a breakout if you downgraded him accordingly. Castillo's fastball velocity (96.5 mph) actually improved, allowing him to post video-game quality results with his changeup (48% whiff rate, .193 WOBA against). If you want to look for a concern, Castillo's August and September were shaky, and he was limited to five starts in September. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $557,500 contract with the Reds in March of 2019.
Working on slider
PCincinnati Reds
March 29, 2020
Castillo spent a portion of spring training working on improving his slider, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. Pitching coach Derek Johnson spoke of that work developing the slider: "There were some (strikeouts) on his slider, which I think has gotten better. I don't have the numbers in front of me on what he struck out guys with. Of course, the changeup is a weapon. I also think in time guys are going to start looking for his changeup more."
ANALYSIS
Last year, Castillo used his slider the least often of his four pitches, throwing it 17 percent of the time. It generated a lot of whiffs (47.5%) and a low batting average against (.190), but opposing hitters did some damage when they made contact, slugging .452 against it. The changeup will likely always be Castillo's best pitch, but he would benefit from a second reliable offspeed offering.
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Pitching Stats
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2019
2018
2017
2019 MLB Game Log
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Scoring
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
96
Last 10 Games
101
Last 5 Games
98
How many pitches does Luis Castillo generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Luis Castillo generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-14%
BAA vs RHP
2019
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-30%
BAA vs RHP
2017
 
 
-14%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .236 928 239 88 193 47 3 36
Since 2017vs Right .202 920 250 72 168 31 0 25
2019vs Left .209 412 123 45 75 17 1 13
2019vs Right .194 369 103 34 64 12 0 9
2018vs Left .289 351 76 29 91 22 0 18
2018vs Right .203 357 89 20 67 14 0 10
2017vs Left .185 165 40 14 27 8 2 5
2017vs Right .216 194 58 18 37 5 0 6
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-20%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-19%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-30%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-16%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.31 1.02 252.2 15 16 0 10.1 2.7 1.2
Since 2017Away 4.16 1.34 197.0 13 11 0 9.4 3.9 1.3
2019Home 3.15 0.99 125.2 8 7 0 9.9 2.9 0.9
2019Away 3.88 1.43 65.0 7 1 0 12.2 5.4 1.4
2018Home 3.51 1.07 82.0 6 5 0 10.5 2.0 1.5
2018Away 5.03 1.36 87.2 4 7 0 7.1 3.2 1.4
2017Home 3.40 1.00 45.0 1 4 0 9.8 3.4 1.4
2017Away 2.84 1.15 44.1 2 3 0 9.9 3.0 0.8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Luis Castillo compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
2.86
 
K/9
10.7
 
BB/9
3.7
 
HR/9
1.0
 
Fastball
96.5 mph
 
ERA
3.40
 
WHIP
1.14
 
BABIP
.273
 
GB/FB
2.19
 
Left On Base
75.9%
 
Exit Velocity
87.1 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
4.9%
 
Spin Rate
2097 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
34.1%
 
Swinging Strike
16.3%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
Usually it's easy to dismiss first-half/second-half splits, but in the case of Castillo, it's hard to overlook his superb second half, especially when there's an easy explanation for his improvement. Before the All-Star break, Castillo had a 5.49 ERA, 1.65 HR/9, 21.5 K% and 7.9 BB% over 103.1 innings. In 66.1 innings after the break, Castillo turned in a 2.44 ERA, 1.22 HR/9, 26.3 K% and 5.3 BB%. The difference? Every one of Castillo's pitches recovered most of the velocity that he had in 2017 but had lost during the first half of 2018. Take his four-seamer as an example -- in September 2017 it clocked in at 97.3 mph, but in April it was down to 95.4 mph, and stayed down at that level until late July/early August, when it got back up to 96.6 mph (velocity readings courtesy of Baseball Savant). Even with the strong second half, Castillo didn't earn his NFBC ADP of 103.3, but he might exceed that in 2019 if he maintains his second-half velocity.
The Reds had been trying to develop a frontline starter to fill Johnny Cueto's shoes for a couple years, but it came to them in the unlikely form of Castillo, who was involved two trades and one rescinded trade before reaching the majors. He debuted after just 94.1 innings at Double-A and zero experience at Triple-A. Teams didn't figure him out as the year went on -- his ERA actually improved each month from July to September. Castillo was particularly dominant away from Great American Ball Park (2.84 ERA in 44.1 innings). His .247 BABIP, which would have been fifth lowest among qualified starters, will clearly regress. While we can't bank on a repeat of his rookie ratios, he should still be very effective in year two. He throws three pitches -- a fastball that averages 97.5 mph and tops out around 99-100 mph, an out-of-this world changeup and a rapidly improving slider. He has the stuff, command and size (6-foot-2, 190 pounds) to pitch atop a rotation.
Best known for being traded to San Diego and then sheepishly traded back to Miami when Colin Rea's elbow gave out after the trade, Castillo has emerged as one of the best prospects in a desolate Marlins system. He sports an 80-grade fastball with an above-average changeup and two breaking balls that are works in progress, but there is still plenty of time for refinement in the upper levels of the minors. That incomplete repertoire was still more than enough to dominate Florida State League hitters. The lack of strikeouts despite cheddar that touches triple digits illustrates his lack of a consistent out pitch, so he will need to continue to improve those offerings if he hopes to have success as a starter at Double-A and Triple-A. He is relatively new to starting, having worked exclusively as a reliever from 2012 to 2014, so becoming more adept at sequencing will also help him miss more bats. This is an arm that could take a big jump up prospect lists this year, especially now that he's in a Reds' system in the middle of a complete rebuild.
More Fantasy News
Poor spring training numbers
PCincinnati Reds
March 25, 2020
In Castillo's four spring training starts, he had an 8.68 ERA and 2.14 WHIP, having allowed nine runs and 16 hits over 9.1 innings. He struck out 14 and walked four over that span.
ANALYSIS
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Better second outing
PCincinnati Reds
February 29, 2020
Castillo threw two innings in Saturday's spring training loss to the Padres, allowing a run on four hits, a wild pitch and a walk and striking out four in the process. In his first spring training outing Monday, he only got two outs while allowing three runs on three hits and two walks, Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Live batting practice
PCincinnati Reds
February 20, 2020
Castillo threw live batting practice Thursday, and his changeup was especially effective against new teammate Mike Moustakas, Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
ANALYSIS
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Yields five runs in five innings
PCincinnati Reds
September 26, 2019
Castillo (15-8) allowed five runs on five hits with four walks and eight strikeouts across five innings while taking a loss against the Brewers on Thursday.
ANALYSIS
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Takes loss despite quality start
PCincinnati Reds
September 20, 2019
Castillo (15-7) was handed the loss after surrendering three runs on three hits and three walks while striking out seven over seven innings Friday against the Mets.
ANALYSIS
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