Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
30-Year-Old PitcherRP
New York Mets
Day-To-Day
Injury Toe
2020 Fantasy Outlook
Lugo had his best season yet in his fourth year in the majors, his first one spent entirely in the bullpen. While his 2.70 ERA was marginally behind his numbers in 2016 and 2018, his 2.70 FIP and 3.24 xFIP were each career bests. His 5.1% walk rate was likewise a career low, while his excellent 33.1% strikeout rate smashed his previous career high of 25.1%. With Edwin Diaz falling far short of expectations, Lugo even picked up six saves. The Mets want Diaz to be the closer they expected when they traded for him prior to the 2019 season, and there is talk that Lugo might be stretched out as a starter this spring. If Diaz struggles for the second straight year, newly-signed Dellin Betances looks like the most likely beneficiary. Lugo can still offer value in rotisserie leagues due to his heavy workload (80 innings) and high strikeout rate, just don't expect him to top last year's saves total. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a one-year, $2 million contract with the Mets in January of 2020, avoiding arbitration.
Live BP session on tap
PNew York Mets
Toe
February 27, 2020
Lugo (toe) is scheduled to throw live batting practice on Sunday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Lugo, who has been slowed to start camp due to a broken pinky toe, is on track to face live hitters for the first time this spring since suffering the injury. If all goes well, the right-hander should be cleared for game action shortly thereafter.
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Pitching Stats
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2019
2018
2017
2019 MLB Game Log
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Scoring
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
21
Last 10 Games
20
Last 5 Games
22
How many pitches does Seth Lugo generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Seth Lugo generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-21%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-25%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-7%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .226 559 132 40 115 23 3 13
Since 2017vs Right .244 601 160 29 136 20 1 17
2019vs Left .167 129 41 8 20 4 1 4
2019vs Right .211 185 63 8 36 6 0 4
2018vs Left .184 197 49 17 32 7 0 4
2018vs Right .245 213 54 11 49 4 1 5
2017vs Left .293 233 42 15 63 12 2 5
2017vs Right .273 203 43 10 51 10 0 8
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-63%
ERA at Home
2019
 
 
-60%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-61%
ERA at Home
2017
 
 
-61%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 1.78 0.84 131.1 8 4 6 9.9 1.7 0.8
Since 2017Away 4.82 1.39 151.1 9 9 3 8.7 2.6 1.1
2019Home 1.56 0.67 40.1 4 2 4 12.7 1.3 0.9
2019Away 3.86 1.13 39.2 3 2 2 10.7 2.3 0.9
2018Home 1.52 0.88 53.1 1 1 2 9.6 1.9 0.7
2018Away 3.94 1.29 48.0 2 3 1 8.6 3.2 0.9
2017Home 2.39 0.96 37.2 3 1 0 7.4 1.9 1.0
2017Away 6.08 1.62 63.2 4 4 0 7.6 2.4 1.3
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Seth Lugo compare to other relievers?
This section compares his stats with all relief pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 30 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 30 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
6.50
 
K/9
11.7
 
BB/9
1.8
 
HR/9
0.9
 
Fastball
94.4 mph
 
ERA
2.70
 
WHIP
0.90
 
BABIP
.283
 
GB/FB
1.26
 
Left On Base
72.4%
 
Exit Velocity
88.2 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.3%
 
Spin Rate
2490 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
34.0%
 
Swinging Strike
11.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Seth Lugo
Spring Training Job Battles: Let the Games Begin
7 days ago
Erik Halterman takes a thorough look at the relevant job battles around baseball on the eve of the first full day of spring training games.
Mound Musings: A Look at Pitching in the NL East
15 days ago
Brad Johnson is back with his first column of 2020 and for the next six weeks, he’ll evaluate pitching staffs, starting with the NL East where in Atlanta, Mike Foltynewicz should be a fantasy asset.
NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week
166 days ago
In this edition, Jan Levine focuses on those players who have recently been called up, have returned to the lineup, or are slated to be back soon.
Mound Musings: Targeting 2020 – Building Your Draft Day Value List
176 days ago
Brad Johnson looks at players who likely will offer considerable value on draft day 2020, including Dodger Julio Urias, who could be in the rotation full-time next year.
The Z Files: Second-Half Bullpen and Basepath Observations
182 days ago
Todd Zola digs into recent stolen base and bullpen numbers looking for an edge and notes that Trea Turner isn't the only National who's been tearing up the basepaths lately.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
Lugo was versatile for the Mets last season, serving as a starter, closer and middle reliever at different times throughout the campaign. His 2019 plan looks similar; he’s been told by the new regime in New York to prepare for any job, though closing is probably off the table after the Mets acquired Edwin Diaz from Seattle. Lugo’s fastball played up in relief and gave him closer-like peripherals, but he can also spread the wealth with five solid-to-awesome offerings as a starter, including a Statcast-melting curveball. Chances are, he will spend most of the year in a high-leverage, multi-inning bullpen role, once again pitching roughly 100 innings. This is the wave of the future, and these highly-skilled non-closers, previously afterthoughts in traditional mixed leagues, are growing more appealing with fewer workhorse starters in the game. Consider tucking Lugo away in the late rounds.
Formerly an unheralded depth piece, Lugo spun a 2.68 ERA in eight starts to end 2016 and looked like valuable insurance for a brittle Mets rotation. The right-hander was bit by the injury bug himself, unfortunately, crashing to a 4.71 ERA over 19 appearances last year while pitching with a slight UCL tear. He later missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The good luck from his .230 BABIP and 85.7 left-on-base percentage the previous year dissolved into .325 and 68.4, respectively. Lugo features an elite curveball, which led the league in spin rate across 2015 and 2016 with a combined 3337 rpm average and finished sixth in 2017 with 3058, per Statcast. His 3.40 K/BB showed a solid foundation for command. However, Lugo is in limbo with no opening as a starter heading into 2018, but he could wind up being traded or filling an injury void for a significant stretch, making him a logical deep-league dart.
Seen as a non-prospect entering last season, Lugo logged eight starts for the Mets due to injuries in the rotation, and the results were surprisingly excellent in 47 innings as a starter. Unfortunately, his 4.93 FIP and 90.9 percent strand rate suggest he was pretty fortunate. That said, some Statcast data suggests Lugo is worth monitoring. He has the highest average curveball spin rate over the past two seasons (Garrett Richards and Jesse Hahn round out the top three). It is an awfully effective pitch, as it held opposing hitters to a .235 average and .294 slugging percentage. The rest of Lugo's pitches are just mediocre offerings, which is why his 17.3 percent strikeout rate does not back up the notion that he might have an 80-grade curveball in his toolbox. He is unlikely to break camp in the starting rotation, but if an injury opens up a spot, Lugo's curveball makes him interesting enough to be worth an add in deeper formats.
More Fantasy News
Back on mound Saturday
PNew York Mets
Toe
February 23, 2020
Lugo (toe) was able to throw off a mound Saturday, Mike Puma of Thew New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nearing return to mound work
PNew York Mets
Toe
February 21, 2020
Lugo (toe) expects to throw off a mound over the weekend, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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Throws from 120 feet
PNew York Mets
Toe
February 19, 2020
Lugo (toe) threw from 120 feet Wednesday, Justin Toscano of The Bergen Record reports.
ANALYSIS
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Suffers fractured toe
PNew York Mets
Toe
February 18, 2020
Lugo fractured his left pinky toe in his hotel, Justin Toscano of The Bergen Record reports.
ANALYSIS
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Avoids arbitrator
PNew York Mets
January 10, 2020
Lugo and the Mets won't be heading to arbitration, as they agreed to terms on a one-year, $2 million deal Friday, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports.
ANALYSIS
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