Trevor Story
Trevor Story
27-Year-Old ShortstopSS
Colorado Rockies
2020 Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, Story's 2019 campaign was much like the previous year and his rookie campaign, making 2017 the outlier. That said, considering the league-wide spike in power and overall offense, perhaps last season was a small step back. This is corroborated by a small dip in xwOBA (an estimation using Statcast metrics). Story's batted-ball profile was a near match to 2018, save for fewer barrels, likely accounting for the drop in xwOBA. Specifically, his GB/LD/FB ratios and hard-hit rate were close to 2018 levels. Not only did Story carry over his improved contact rate, he continued to run, swiping 23 bags, reinforcing a strong floor. Add in Coors Field and decent durability (656 plate appearances each of the past two seasons), the 27-year old is one of the best at a stacked shortstop position. Story warrants first-round consideration and $30-plus in auctions as he contributes across the board. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed a two-year, $27.5 million contract with the Rockies in January of 2020.
Nothing new in spring training
SSColorado Rockies
March 29, 2020
Story had a .250/.321/.375 slash line with three doubles and one stolen base over 10 games before the suspension of spring training.
ANALYSIS
Cactus League play was uneventful for the 27-year-old prior to baseball operations being halted, though there was an offseason development as he inked a two-year, $27.5 million deal in January to buy out his final two years of arbitration. Story had a .917 OPS with 35 homers, 85 RBI and 23 stolen bases in 145 games in 2019, and once play resumes he's poised for another season as Colorado's starting shortstop.
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Batting Stats
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2019
2018
2017
2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Batting Order Slot Breakdown
vs Right-Handed Pitchers
vs RHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
10
62
2
15
vs Left-Handed Pitchers
vs LHP
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
#6
#7
#8
#9
13
34
1
7
Left/Right Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+24%
OPS vs LHP
2019
 
 
+2%
OPS vs LHP
2018
 
 
+25%
OPS vs LHP
2017
 
 
+55%
OPS vs LHP
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017vs Left 1.010 530 80 33 95 13 .314 .379 .631
Since 2017vs Right .816 1337 187 63 180 44 .262 .326 .490
2019vs Left .933 187 27 9 24 8 .314 .369 .564
2019vs Right .911 469 84 26 61 15 .286 .360 .550
2018vs Left 1.069 193 30 14 43 4 .326 .389 .680
2018vs Right .852 463 58 23 65 23 .277 .330 .521
2017vs Left 1.034 150 23 10 28 1 .301 .380 .654
2017vs Right .668 405 45 14 54 6 .216 .281 .386
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Home/Away Batting Splits
Since 2017
 
 
+29%
OPS at Home
2019
 
 
+39%
OPS at Home
2018
 
 
+34%
OPS at Home
2017
 
 
+11%
OPS at Home
OPS PA R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Since 2017Home .980 956 160 63 179 25 .298 .363 .617
Since 2017Away .759 911 107 33 96 32 .254 .318 .440
2019Home 1.064 336 71 24 56 11 .328 .402 .662
2019Away .767 320 40 11 29 12 .260 .322 .445
2018Home 1.043 339 50 26 71 11 .306 .366 .678
2018Away .780 317 38 11 37 16 .276 .328 .452
2017Home .805 281 39 13 52 3 .256 .313 .492
2017Away .723 274 29 11 30 4 .220 .303 .420
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Stat Review
How does Trevor Story compare to other hitters?
This section compares his stats with all batting seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 400 plate appearances)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity and Barrels/PA % are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 400 PA) and Hard Hit Rate is benchmarked against last season's data (min 400 PA). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • BB/K
    Walk to strikeout ratio
  • BB Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a walk.
  • K Rate
    The percentage of plate appearances resulting in a strikeout.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits.
  • ISO
    Isolated Power. Slugging percentage minus batting average. A computation used to measure a batter's raw power.
  • AVG
    Batting average. Hits divided by at bats.
  • OBP
    On Base Percentage. A measure of how often a batters reaches base. Roughly equal to number of times on base divided by plate appearances.
  • SLG
    Slugging Percentage. A measure of the batting productivity of a hitter. It is calculated as total bases divided by at bats.
  • OPS
    On base plus slugging. THe sum of a batter's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
  • wOBA
    Weighted on-base average. Measures a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. wOBA combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Hard Hit Rate
    A measure of contact quality from Sports Info Solutions. This stat explains what percentage of batted balls were hit hard vs. medium or soft.
  • Barrels/PA
    The percentage of plate appearances where a batter had a batted ball classified as a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
BB/K
0.33
 
BB Rate
8.8%
 
K Rate
26.5%
 
BABIP
.361
 
ISO
.260
 
AVG
.294
 
OBP
.363
 
SLG
.554
 
OPS
.917
 
wOBA
.396
 
Exit Velocity
90.8 mph
 
Hard Hit Rate
44.1%
 
Barrels/PA
5.1%
 
Advanced Batting Stats
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Additional Stats
Games By Position
Defensive Stats
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Batted Ball Stats
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Stats Vs Upcoming Pitchers
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2013
While 2016 may have been Story's breakout, 2018 was the season everything came together. He hit for a career-high average while greatly reducing his strikeout rate and expanding his power at the plate. The volume of stolen bases was a huge surprise that nobody forecasted in draft season and a bonus. His home-run total went up despite a small drop in his flyball rate. More hard contact allowed his HR/FB to get up to 20% and helped fuel the homer surge. There are two causes for concern moving forward, though: Story had an elbow scare near the end of the season that nearly put him on the surgeon's table, so that bears watching. Secondly, he ended the season with a 64-point split between his actual slugging percentage of .567 and his expected slugging percentage (.503). He is more likely to slide back to 30 homers than to challenge for 40 in 2019.
Story was in the conversation for NL Rookie of the Year honors in 2016 before a thumb ligament injury ended his season, but he was unable to repeat that success in 2017. He stumbled out of the gates, batting .180/.289/.396 over his first 34 games. Story hit .255 with 18 homers and 67 RBI in 112 games after his return from a shoulder injury in May, but he continued to swing and miss at a high rate, fanning in one-third of his plate appearances over the remainder of the year. The strikeouts are not as much of a problem in today's game, and that's especially true when a player hits the ball as hard as Story does -- his 40.3 percent hard-hit rate ranked 18th among qualified hitters. Story will likely continue to be a batting-average liability with his current approach, even while playing half his games at Coors Field, but his prolific power and splash of speed at the shortstop position give him appeal at what will be a significantly discounted price from a year ago.
Story was given an opportunity in the starting role from Day 1 last season, replacing the suspended Jose Reyes. The rookie took off from the get-go, seemingly tearing down every rookie record in the book. Through the first month of the season, he already had 10 home runs, 20 RBI, and a massive 1.019 OPS. Understandably, he wasn't able to sustain this ridiculously torrid pace, but he managed to put up a .908 OPS, 27 home runs and 72 RBI prior to a thumb injury that cut his season short by two months. Story's 130 strikeouts are a concern, as that number could grow as pitchers figure out his tendencies, and his home/road splits were very different as one would expect for a Coors Field batter (1.086 home OPS vs. .747 road OPS). That being said, Story cemented himself as the shortstop of the future for the Rockies, and he looks to be an excellent source of power at the shortstop position playing half of his games in the thin Colorado air.
Story was a consensus top-100 prospect prior to the 2013 season, but his stock crashed to the point that he didn’t crack any industry top-100 lists in 2014 or 2015. That streak will come to a screeching halt this offseason, as Story made a big statement, abusing Double-A and Triple-A pitchers alike. He slashed .279/.350/.514 with 20 home runs and 22 steals (on 25 attempts) in 130 games, splitting time evenly between the two levels. Story remains age appropriate for his level, as he should debut in the majors early on in his age-23 campaign. Jose Reyes appears to stand in Story’s way, but Reyes’ performance was below replacement level in 47 games with Colorado last season, and he has serious off-field issues that could also cut into his availability. Look for Story to be starting every day at shortstop for the Rockies sooner rather than later in 2016, making him a worthy late-round flier in mixed leagues.
Forced to repeat High-A Modesto after striking out in 33 percent of his plate appearances in 2013, Story shined in his second go-around, slashing .332/.436/.582 while showing noticeable growth in his plate discipline. The improvements earned Story a midseason promotion to Double-A Tulsa. Just as was the case in the California League, he scuffled in his initial exposure to the new level. His strikeout rate hiked up to 34.6% and his on-base percentage sank to .302 over 237 plate appearances, dimming the impact of the rare power/speed package he offers at shortstop. Story’s ongoing contact issues leave scouts divided on whether or not he’ll become a viable big league regular, but it could simply be a matter of the 22-year-old needing more time to adjust to advanced pitching. The Rockies are of no mind to rush Story to the majors while Troy Tulowitzki is around, so he’ll have ample opportunity to refine his swing at the Double-A level and assert his standing as the team’s top middle infield prospect.
Story’s age-19 season was a promising one, as he exhibited a nice combination of power (18 homers), speed (15 steals) and on-base skills (.361 OBP). Story is not without a few flaws, however. It should be noted that his numbers came in the friendly hitting confines of the South Atlantic League, and his high strikeout totals could become more problematic as he advances in the minors. Story will likely move on to another hitters’ paradise in the California League this season, so it is possible we will not know the full extent of his batting skills until he reaches the upper levels of the minors.
More Fantasy News
Inks two-year deal
SSColorado Rockies
January 24, 2020
Story signed a two-year, $27.5 million contract with the Rockies on Friday, avoiding arbitration, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Idle for season finale
SSColorado Rockies
September 29, 2019
Story is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Belts walkoff homer
SSColorado Rockies
September 28, 2019
Story went 2-for-5 with a walkoff solo home run in Saturday's 3-2 extra-inning win over the Brewers.
ANALYSIS
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Heads to bench
SSColorado Rockies
September 25, 2019
Story is not in the lineup Wednesday against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
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Homers, walks twice in marathon
SSColorado Rockies
September 25, 2019
Story went 1-for-6 with a solo home run and a pair of walks Tuesday in the Rockies' 8-5 loss to the Giants in 16 innings.
ANALYSIS
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