Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole
29-Year-Old PitcherSP
 Free Agent  
Free Agent
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The smart money was on Cole thriving in Houston, despite a move to the American League. However, no one expected such a dominating campaign. Not only was there a latent park upgrade, but the Astros identified a flaw in Cole's pitch mix and increased his curveball usage. The result was a cascade effect as Cole's entire arsenal enjoyed an upgrade. He posted a career-best 14.1 SwStr% without sacrificing much control. The result was his third 200-inning season in the last four years (just five others have accomplished the feat in each of the past two seasons). Cole's success was driven by a huge improvement versus left-handed batters against whom the increased use of his curveball was paramount. Cole will be hard-pressed to repeat this level of success without the platoon edge, so expect regression. Still, his durability renders Cole one of the few workhorses in an era of five and fly. It'll cost, but Cole should remain one of the few elite starters in the game. Read Past Outlooks
RANKSFrom Preseason
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$Signed a one-year, $13.5 million contract with the Astros in February of 2019 after winning arbitration hearing.
Rejects qualifying offer
PFree Agent  
November 14, 2019
Cole rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros on Thursday, making him a free agent, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
ANALYSIS
Cole's decision to reject the one-year, $17.8 million qualifying offer is not a surprising one, as the right-hander is expected to command a hefty price tag in free agency. The Astros will now be able to receive draft-pick compensation if he signs elsewhere after posting a 2.50 ERA with a 326:48 K:BB in 2019.
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Pitching Stats
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
103
Last 10 Games
104
Last 5 Games
110
How many pitches does Gerrit Cole generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Gerrit Cole generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-9%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2018
 
 
-30%
BAA vs LHP
2017
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .203 1210 434 94 224 46 6 42
Since 2017vs Right .224 1255 364 73 260 56 3 37
2019vs Left .175 417 182 30 67 15 1 17
2019vs Right .198 400 144 18 75 15 0 12
2018vs Left .162 389 160 38 56 14 1 7
2018vs Right .231 410 116 26 87 22 1 12
2017vs Left .268 404 92 26 101 17 4 18
2017vs Right .241 445 104 29 98 19 2 13
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-4%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-10%
ERA on Road
2018
 
 
-7%
ERA on Road
2017
 
 
-2%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.26 0.98 303.1 23 9 0 11.9 2.1 1.1
Since 2017Away 3.14 1.13 312.1 24 13 0 11.4 2.7 1.2
2019Home 2.63 0.79 113.0 12 2 0 13.9 1.5 1.3
2019Away 2.36 1.02 99.1 8 3 0 13.8 2.6 1.2
2018Home 2.99 0.97 96.1 8 2 0 13.2 2.6 0.9
2018Away 2.77 1.10 104.0 7 3 0 11.7 3.1 0.8
2017Home 4.31 1.22 94.0 3 5 0 8.2 2.4 1.1
2017Away 4.21 1.28 109.0 9 7 0 9.1 2.5 1.7
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Gerrit Cole compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
6.79
 
K/9
13.8
 
BB/9
2.0
 
HR/9
1.2
 
Fastball
97.2 mph
 
ERA
2.50
 
WHIP
0.89
 
BABIP
.293
 
GB/FB
1.11
 
Left On Base
83.0%
 
Exit Velocity
87.6 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.7%
 
Spin Rate
2566 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
35.6%
 
Swinging Strike
17.5%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Gerrit Cole
The Z Files: My Top 20 Starting Pitchers
35 days ago
Todd Zola offers his first look at the top hurlers in his rankings and suggests Jack Flaherty may be ready to join the league's elite on the mound.
DraftKings MLB: Tuesday World Series Picks
37 days ago
With the Nationals facing Justin Verlander -- and elimination -- in Houston on Tuesday, Adam Zdroik tees up your Game 6 DraftKings slate.
DraftKings MLB: Sunday Showdown Picks
39 days ago
Despite his premium price tag and the fact he struggled in the opener, Mike Barner feels like Gerrit Cole has to be selected for Game 5.
FanDuel MLB: Sunday World Series Breakdown
39 days ago
Adam Eaton has been hitting well of late and Sasha Yodashkin urges people to pick the veteran for tonight's matchup.
FanDuel MLB: Friday World Series Breakdown
41 days ago
With the Nats at home for Game 3 on Friday, Adam Zdroik provides his World Series insights for building a winning FanDuel lineup.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Few pitchers were impacted as negatively by the Great Home Run Spike as Cole. His HR/9 shot from 0.54 in 2016 to 1.37 last season, which was the main culprit behind his nearly 50-point increase in ERA. Cole improved his strikeout and walk rates in his age-26 season, adding a full strikeout to his K/9, and in turn shaved 21 points off his xFIP. Most importantly, the right-hander managed to avoid the injury bug after missing the end of 2016 with an elbow ligament injury, exceeding 200 innings for the second time in his career -- Cole was one of just 15 major-league arms to reach 200 innings in 2017. The issues with the long ball may very well persist, but that's going to be the case with a lot of talented pitchers in today's landscape. Health remains the biggest concern, but Cole has a case as an SP2 in mixed leagues following the move to Houston as (believe it or not) it is a significant park upgrade.
Cole landed on the disabled list three times in 2016. An elbow ligament injury ultimately ended his season after he tried pitching through the pain. He opted for rest over offseason surgery. When Cole did toe the rubber, the results were disappointing with the right-hander registering career-worst numbers across the board: 3.88 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9. His average fastball velocity (95.2 mph) was close to his career mark (95.4 mph), but the pinpoint accuracy was lacking. Cole is a rebound candidate -- he's one season removed from 19-8, 2.60 ERA, 1-09 WHIP and 202 strikeouts in 208 IP -- but he also carries more risk than other starters in his tier.
Cole appeared en route to an elite season in 2015 before a second half slowdown put a small damper on things. He went 13-3 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.12 WHIP leading up to the All-Star Game, only to go 6-5 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.06 WHIP the rest of the way (not exactly bad numbers). For whatever reason, the 25-year-old posted much better numbers during day games (10-1, 2.05 ERA) than at night (9-7, 3.00 ERA). He increased his slider usage from 12.1% to 21.2%, which enhanced his effectiveness, but keep in mind that pitchers who rely heavily on sliders tend to get hurt more frequently than those who don’t. Aside from the increased slider reliance, there is no reason why Cole can’t put together another outstanding campaign in 2016.
The budding ace battled injury and inconsistent velocity in his sophomore season for the Bucs. Cole, who made two separate trips to the disabled list with shoulder fatigue and a lat strain, made seven starts upon his return in late August, going 4-1 with a 3.44 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 52.1 innings. At times his velocity dipped, even within the same starts, though his overall fastball velocity fell only slightly (96.1 mph to 95.5 mph) from 2013. For the season, he compiled a 3.65 ERA (3.30 FIP), 1.21 WHIP and 138 strikeouts in 138 innings. If Cole can improve upon his .316 BABIP, there's a good chance he'll return better overall numbers. With a little bit better luck in the injury department, the hard-throwing righty could break out the way many expected him to last season.
Cole won his first four starts in Pittsburgh, but struck out only 11 batters in the process. Theories were floated: Cole himself said that he was pitching to contact and hadn't unleashed his entire repertoire. After coming up second best in an Aug. 8 showdown with fellow phenom Jose Fernandez, Cole elevated his game to a new level. In his final eight starts, the 2011 first-overall draft pick went 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 53:13 K:BB ratio. Cole led all major league pitchers with a 96.1 mph average fastball (110 IP minimum). The Pirates then chose Cole over A.J. Burnett to start Game 5 of the NLDS, an indication of his top-of-the-rotation status. The 6-foot-4, 235-pound right-hander matured in the majors in a very short time period. It wouldn't be surprising to see him encounter some bumps along the way, but he'll be called upon as a frontline starter from the get-go in 2014.
Regardless of whether Pittsburgh keeps its front office intact moving forward, Cole has a decent chance of cracking the team's rotation by the end of 2013. Not even the stingy Pirates could keep the top overall draft pick from 2011 at High-A for all of 2012. Cole began the year with Bradenton, where he compiled a 2.69 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 67 innings. His 69:21 K:BB helped make the decision to promote him to Double-A any easy one. Pitching for the Curve, Cole registered a 2.90 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 59 frames, to go along with a 60:23 BB:K. He hasn't looked elite in big showcases such as the 2011 AFL Rising Stars Game and 2012 Futures Game, but he's proven otherwise consistent. To think that his 100-mph fastball (which borders on the flat side) might be no better than his third best pitch is a good problem to have.
Time will tell whether the Pirates made the right move selecting Cole first overall in the 2011 draft, but his good size, downward plane and right-handed delivery dovetail perfectly with the profile of general manager Neal Huntington's ideal starting pitcher. The 6-foot-4 power hurler hit 100 mph regularly in the Arizona Fall League and offers a plus slider and changeup. Cole never put up dominating numbers at UCLA and was actually outpitched by fellow first-round pick Trevor Bauer. His pedigree dates to high school, however, when he was selected in the first round by the Yankees in 2008. Pittsburgh does not typically advance prospects quickly, making it unlikely that Cole sees the major leagues until 2013, at the earliest.
More Fantasy News
Given qualifying offer
PFree Agent  
November 4, 2019
Cole received a qualifying offer from the Astros on Monday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports.
ANALYSIS
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Confirmed as Game 1 starter
PHouston Astros  
October 21, 2019
Cole will start Game 1 of the World Series against the Nationals on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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Pitching in Game 7 if necessary
PHouston Astros  
October 18, 2019
Cole is set to start Game 7 against the Yankees on Sunday if the series extends, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Blanks Yanks over seven innings
PHouston Astros  
October 15, 2019
Cole (1-0) picked up the win with seven scoreless innings against the Yankees on Tuesday in Game 3 of the ALCS, giving up four hits and five walks with seven strikeouts.
ANALYSIS
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Starting Game 3
PHouston Astros  
October 11, 2019
Cole will start Game 3 of the ALCS against the Yankees on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports.
ANALYSIS
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