College Baseball Best Bets Sunday 3/17/24

College Baseball Best Bets Sunday 3/17/24

This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.

College Baseball Betting: Expert Picks for Sunday, March 17

Tennessee was a loser. It's been a regression from last weekend. The slow start and poor execution in all facets doomed them. I would definitely look to run it back with them on Sunday for the bounce back and series win, though.

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There are several rubber matches in action to conclude the opening weekend of conference play. One hand, it's not surprising, but on the other hand I'm a little shocked at how some of these teams have played this weekend. A lot of it being out of character. It should be a great day on the diamond, so let's try and finish strong.

Texas A&M Aggies (+110) @ Florida Gators (-140)

These dirtbag book makers are sharpening up. I was hoping, and low-key thought, they might be dumb, but here we are. After the Aggies were sizable closing-line favorites in the first two games, they open as a decent-sized dog for Sunday, even after coming off a win on Saturday. We all know the reason why. The culprit wears #14 for Florida, and SHOULD be the No. 1 pick in this summer's draft (even if he ends up not being it): Mr. Jac Caglianone. 

Both teams have burned through bullpen arms the same way MC Hammer did with all of his money. For this pivotal early-season SEC Sunday rubber game, teams need their starters to eat up innings. The edge certainly goes to the two-way player Caglianone, who has been dominant on the mound thus far. Although he flashed brilliance last season, Cags needed to make a small mechanical change in the offseason, and by doing so, it's made a NOTICEABLE difference. Through three starts, Jac Jack has managed a microscopic 1.80 ERA and 27 K/8 BB ratio across 15 innings. After going six hitless innings last weekend against St. Mary's, he needs to carry that against this loaded Texas A&M offense that has pumped out 16 runs through the first two games.

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It's worth noting that this Aggie offensive production has really been carried by their three best hitters (1-3 lineup guys), Gavin Grahovac, Jace Laviolette and Braden Montgomery. On Saturday, the trio combined to go 5-for-13 with five RBI, six runs, while each hit a tater. If Cags can navigate that with little damage, there's a good chance he can have a much-needed big time outing. As always, the walks have been his Achilles heel (63 in 89.2 innings as a Gator pitcher). 

For TAMU, they'll turn to their talented lefty sophomore, Justin Lamkin. Lamkin, like his other two rotation mates, has benefited from a butter schedule thus far. Facing the Gators will certainly be one of his biggest tests of the year. Both of his counterparts failed miserably. To his credit, though, the lefty has delivered with his 0.98 ERA and 27 K/5 BB ratio in 18.1 innings. Although he didn't see Florida last season, he struggled against those same caliber SEC offenses like Tennessee, Auburn and Alabama. This UF lineup is loaded with talent that is, of course, led by the guy who will be opposing him on the mound. With a red-hot Cags who is up to a .410 average with seven home runs, Lamkin will need avoid the mistake pitches and keep the ball low.

Coming into the weekend, I thought A&M would win the series. However, that was because I had them winning Friday and Saturday with Florida penciled in on Sunday behind Caglianone. I've been very concerned with this Aggies pitching this weekend, so I don't think this will be the game where they get right. Florida should win this early conference series behind the Golden Spikes favorite.

Pick: Gators ML -140

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Venezia
John Venezia has covered the NFL, MLB, and College Baseball for betting and fantasy for more than six years. His recent stints include NBC Sports, Bet Karma, Bettor Sports Network, and Fantasy Life.
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