This article is part of our MLB Betting series.
Previous article 3-1 +2.20
Overall 58-41 +8.82
I will admit it feels good to get back on the horse in the plus column after a bumpy two-week stretch. The team totals were good to me yesterday and if not for Matt Harvey pitching out of his mind, it would have been a 4-0 sweep. Today is not the easiest of slates with a lot of bad pitching matchups.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles 7:10 ET
The Rays opened -200 against the Orioles as home favorites and have taken all six games in the season series so far. They outscored the Orioles in Baltimore 33-14 over a three-game stretch and 16-7 in Tampa also a three-game series in June for a total of 49-21 (8.1 – 3.5). Only one game out of the six had less than a two-run margin of victory.
The Rays are on another streak going 8-2 over their last 10 games while fighting it out in the AL East with the Boston Red Sox. They have scored at least 4 runs or more in the last 10. The Orioles are just 10-22 against left-handed pitchers this year.
BET – Rays -1.5 runs (-105) for 1 RW buck
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers 7:10 ET
The great thing about baseball betting is it is no longer just looking at who will win the game or what will the final score be. You can analyze a game and just not have any feel for which way it will go. After looking at pitching logs, one of the things you know about Kyle Gibson in 2021 is that he will go at least 6 innings in almost every start (14/17 to be exact). Gibson just faced the Tigers on July 7th and was roughed up for 5 earned runs. But he went 6.1 innings and struck out 7 batters. I will bank on Gibson getting into the 6th inning once again as this could be one of his last starts as a Texas Ranger before the trade deadline.
BET – Gibson over 17.5 outs (-130) for 1 RW buck
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 ET
A huge clash on Monday night between two of the top teams in the NL West presents a great opportunity for value on the visiting Giants. Gausman is making a run at the NL Cy Young award and has been one of the most profitable 1st 5 inning pitchers this year. He has averaged 8.3 strikeouts per game over his last 7 starts and the Dodgers will probably be without Mookie Betts, who left Saturday's game with a lower-body injury. Betts has a .326 career batting average against Gausman in 46 at-bats along with 3 home runs.
Gonsolin has gone past the 4th inning once this year and has a 31/15 K/BB, but only a 2.13 ERA. The Dodgers have been dominant at home with a 30-14 record while the Giants are 16-10 as road underdogs. I think the Giants have a significant edge in the pitching matchup and getting them at plus money presents great value.
BET – Giants -0.5 F5 (+135) for 1 RW buck
BET – Gausman over 6.5 strikeouts (-120) for 1 RW buck