This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
Unlike fantasy baseball Twitter, I hate small samples. However, there have been some things that have caught my eye through the first week. I won't waste your time telling you to go pick up Dustin May or Spencer Howard, but hopefully what follows will be useful for those in redraft leagues and dynasty leagues alike.
I will update the top-400 prospect rankings next week, which still feels a bit too early, but that's the world we're living in. (I have already removed all the graduates)
Not Every Team Is As Dumb As The Rockies
I've seen people complaining about the playing time for Kyle Tucker, Carter Kieboom and Clint Frazier, often adopting the same tone we use when discussing the Rockies and their poor decision making with regards to signing washed-up veterans to block young, promising players.
Kyle Tucker is a good young player. However, I promise you the Astros know much more about him than you do. I've never liked his body language — this doesn't necessarily mean anything, but I think it's relevant for a player who was passed over for several promotions in the past — and his defense rates as below average. He was worse at Triple-A in 2019 (113 wRC+) than he was in 2018 (155 wRC+). Just because a player goes 30/30 in a repeat tour of the Pacific Coast League doesn't mean it's an outrage that he has not been gifted everyday playing time to start the season. It looks
Unlike fantasy baseball Twitter, I hate small samples. However, there have been some things that have caught my eye through the first week. I won't waste your time telling you to go pick up Dustin May or Spencer Howard, but hopefully what follows will be useful for those in redraft leagues and dynasty leagues alike.
I will update the top-400 prospect rankings next week, which still feels a bit too early, but that's the world we're living in. (I have already removed all the graduates)
Not Every Team Is As Dumb As The Rockies
I've seen people complaining about the playing time for Kyle Tucker, Carter Kieboom and Clint Frazier, often adopting the same tone we use when discussing the Rockies and their poor decision making with regards to signing washed-up veterans to block young, promising players.
Kyle Tucker is a good young player. However, I promise you the Astros know much more about him than you do. I've never liked his body language — this doesn't necessarily mean anything, but I think it's relevant for a player who was passed over for several promotions in the past — and his defense rates as below average. He was worse at Triple-A in 2019 (113 wRC+) than he was in 2018 (155 wRC+). Just because a player goes 30/30 in a repeat tour of the Pacific Coast League doesn't mean it's an outrage that he has not been gifted everyday playing time to start the season. It looks like he is settling into at least the strong side of a platoon, so we should get to see what he's capable of against big-league pitching from a power/speed standpoint. Just don't be surprised if, at the end of the season, his batting average, on-base percentage, wRC+ and wins above replacement don't scream future star.
Carter Kieboom is a fine prospect. I have him ranked as the 50th-best prospect in baseball because I think he can have a nice 6-to-10 year run as a mixed-league starter. In the past, I've said that his fantasy ceiling could be similar to Asdrubal Cabrera's fantasy ceiling. That's not meant as a slight, but it might be a wake-up call for those who think he'll replicate his Triple-A numbers against big-league pitching. The point is, I don't think it's a stretch to say Cabrera might still be the better real-life player. Again, the Nationals have a better sense of which players give them the best chance to win than you do. They were incredibly aggressive with Juan Soto's promotion and they've done right by Victor Robles from a playing time standpoint. Kieboom should be fine eventually, but he is not going to be a star and it's not a crime that he's not playing every day right now.
When you get upset that Clint Frazier was banished from the 30-man roster, you should be required to say specifically which players he should be playing over. He's a much worse defender than Mike Tauchman, so having him as a bench outfielder over Tauchman doesn't make sense. Are you going to DH him over Giancarlo Stanton? Are you going to play him over your best center fielder (Aaron Hicks)? Brett Gardner was worth 3.6 wins above replacement last year. Are you sure Frazier will be better than Gardner (who the Yankees voluntarily signed this offseason) when factoring in defense? I think Frazier has the tools to be a top-40 fantasy outfielder if and when he gets traded to a rebuilding club, but he won't necessarily be a winning real-life player, which is why he is not playing for the Yankees.
Slugging in Seattle
By the time I do a full top-400 update, Kyle Lewis will have probably lost his prospect eligibility. So the question is, where should he be ranked right this minute? I was low on him (too low) before the season because I thought he would strike out too much to be a net positive in fantasy. I was thinking something like a 35 percent strikeout rate, a .230 batting average and plenty of power, but not Joey Gallo-level power. Well, he currently has a 40.9 percent strikeout rate and a .750 BABIP. Is he good? Is he just insanely lucky? He definitely hits the ball really hard when he connects, so he should be a high BABIP guy for his whole career. I would rank him inside the top 200 and probably inside the top 150 right now, just because he is pretty much assured everyday at-bats for the rest of 2020 and into 2021. Even if I'm right about the .230 average, I probably undersold the game power a bit, so he could end up as kind of a poor man's Khris Davis. In the meantime, he could also make adjustments, cut down on the strikeouts, and be a legitimate fantasy asset who doesn't hurt you anywhere. Or, the strikeout rate could stick above 35 percent and he could trend toward the Mendoza Line.
The Rookie Hurlers
Here we have three solid rookie starters, all of whom are ranked in the 300-400 range of the top 400. Brady Singer was the big FAAB guy this past week because he looked excellent in his debut and gets a tasty matchup Wednesday against Detroit. David Peterson looked great in his debut Tuesday against the Red Sox, and we'll see how Cristian Javier looks Wednesday against the Dodgers. They are ranked closely and I'm discussing them in the same space because for 2020 purposes, I view them all as solid streamers, but nothing more, at least in 15-team mixers. Clay Link and I are starting Singer this week in the NFBC Main Event (we drafted him with our last pick and definitely wouldn't have paid what it cost in FAAB to add him), but even with a cake matchup, I'm apprehensive. The amount of starting pitchers who have shoved in their MLB debuts only to submarine fantasy ratios in ensuing starts is nearly an infinite list. All three of these guys have a chance to be anything from a No. 3 starter to a swing man long term, with the ultimate outcome likely hinging on fastball command. Javier has the deepest arsenal and the most deception, Singer has the best 1-2 punch (fastball/slider), Peterson has the most complete package (three good pitches, left-handedness, excellent at generating groundballs). My advice: play the matchups and don't be afraid to leave a good outing or two on your bench if you have a safer alternative.
Early Surprises
I'm lumping these guys together because they played more than I expected in the first week and have the power/speed upside we crave. Daniel Johnson is the better fantasy prospect, largely due to the fact he hits left-handed, while Edward Olivares is a righty. Cleveland unfortunately sent Johnson down Tuesday, but he will be back, and hopefully he will be up to stay next time. Olivares should primarily play against southpaws barring injuries ahead of him, but he could perform very capably on the short side of a platoon and could steal four or five bases in the shortened season. I'm not adding either guy in a 15-team mixer, but I could see myself adding Johnson later in the year, and Olivares makes for a nice matchup play in leagues that allow daily moves.
Catching On
Both these catchers have been forced into action due to issues ahead of them on the depth chart and both catchers have handled themselves well in a grand total of 13 combined plate appearances. The ONLY reason William Contreras is playing is because he's a better defender than Alex Jackson and Atlanta's top two catchers are on the COVID-19 injured list. He has a 40 percent strikeout rate and is going to do more harm than good if you plug him in now in roto leagues. Tyler Stephenson is a much better fantasy prospect than Contreras, but like Contreras, he made his debut because Tucker Barnhart was on the paternity list. I like Stephenson as a potential top-12 fantasy catcher once he is getting the bulk of the playing time, but that probably won't be until 2021 — his framing is poor and would likely negate anything he'd add with the bat.
Bonus Track
Shaun Anderson is no longer prospect eligible, but I added him in a 20-team dynasty league (TDGX) last week because I think he is clearly the Giants' best reliever — I'm nearing the end of a rebuild in this league. To be clear, I don't think he will get many, if any, saves in 2020, but he could very well be the team leader in 2021 saves. I just don't buy that they would continue to use their best reliever in the middle innings, as they have done thus far. Add Trevor Gott in redraft leagues if you must, just know that if the cream rises to the top this season, Anderson is the cream.
