Mound Musings: Dusting Off the Crystal Ball

Sometimes people forget fantasy baseball is all about predictions. While it's certainly prudent to look closely at past performance, the real objective is to dust off the crystal ball and try to predict the future. We constantly have to ask the question, "What have you done for me lately, and what will you do for me today, tomorrow and beyond?"

As you read this, we are (or should be) celebrating Opening Day, 2020. I'm pretty sure everyone will agree, what a long strange trip it's been! However, I am reasonably certain there are more strange happenings in the future as we continue the trip. There are almost certainly more illness trips to the injured list in the offing. There may even be a handful of pitchers who will decide to opt out over health concerns, and regular injuries are always part of the equation. But, it's yet to be seen if the shorter and somewhat unorthodox preparation time will impact those. Plus, I am still certain some players will find it harder to find the adrenaline on-button with no crowds in the stands.

That said, I have my own thoughts on how things might transpire over the short next two months we're calling a season. Some of my players, and yours, may change uniforms, making them more or less valuable, and others will simply perform better or worse than expected as the season wears on. I think this is a good time to get the crystal ball out, and to see if we can make some predictions. Hey, it's worth a shot, so let's go.

Boston finishes well out of the playoff hunt: In many ways, this was the year of the pitcher. Many arms started the year ahead of the hitters, and they pretty much maintained that gap. There were some exceptions. Two American League teams finished with an aggregate ERA over 5.00 for the season. Not too surprisingly, Baltimore was one of those. I mean a journeyman fringy starter, Tommy Milone, was their defacto Opening Day hurler. It pretty much went downhill from there. Unlike Baltimore, the Red Sox did some respectable hitting, but their pitching staff was a shambles much of the year. Chris Sale was impossible to replace, and Collin McHugh opted out. Getting off to a slow start, Eduardo Rodriguez never really put it together, and among their starters, only Nathan Eovaldi flashed some at or above league average performance. The bullpen was even worse in what will go down as a season to forget in Beantown. 

Padres surge late, just short of catching the Dodgers in the NL West: On the other side of the country, things were much more exciting. As many expected, the loaded Dodgers started the season on fire and fanned the flames to jump out to a solid lead in the West. Clayton Kershaw was himself, Walker Buehler took it up a notch, maybe two, Julio Urias began to fulfill his immense promise, and Kenley Jansen roared back, too. However, it wasn't a simple walk in the park. The Padres kept the Dodgers in their sights early with solid performances by Chris Paddack, Garrett Richards, and their ace-in-the-making, Dinelson Lamet, along with a very complimentary mix of veteran and kid position players behind those arms. Then, in late August, it seemingly all came together when they promoted their prize young pitcher, MacKenzie Gore. He was even better than advertised, displaying quality stuff and maturity on the mound beyond his years. It wasn't quite enough to catch the Dodgers, but they were solidly in the playoffs, and had sent a message to the other teams. The Padres have arrived.

Flaherty wins the NL Cy Young, but a surprise nabs the strikeout crown: In the American League, the Yankees got just what they paid for as Gerrit Cole set the standard for excellence among starting pitchers to lead the Yankees to a hard-fought division title in the rugged East. The Astros' Justin Verlander was the runner-up, while a healthy James Paxton, the Twins Jose Berrios, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tyler Glasnow and Lucas Giolito all contributed memorable seasons. In the National League, the voting seemed like an after-thought. Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty lost just one game in the regular season while posting a sub-2.00 ERA and collecting more than his share of strikeouts. He overshadowed huge seasons by Walker Buehler, Yu Darvish and Nationals' teammates Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin. Okay, no really huge surprises there, but the NL pitching stats did perhaps offer one fairly major surprise. Displaying improved command of his secondary stuff, the Padres' Dinelson Lamet rode his devastating slider and electric fastball to a strikeout title.

The rookie pitcher of the year sets the tone for a resurgent team: In this wild and crazy season, several young, blue chip, rookie pitchers had an opportunity to prove themselves. As already mentioned, MacKenzie Gore made a big impression in San Diego. Forrest Whitley didn't quite achieve his ultimate upside, but he showed some progress in locking in a release point, while Spencer Howard struggled just a bit in Philadelphia. We even got a brief look at 2020 draftee Max Meyer in Miami. He's still a little raw, but there is clearly something to look forward to. Unfortunately, the White Sox' Michael Kopech opted out as he continues rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but he should be fully healthy and ready to go next spring. But, the pitcher who ultimately turned heads was Nate Pearson in Toronto. Okay, not "in" Toronto, they couldn't play there, but "for" Toronto. He was a little up and down as he adjusted to the major leagues, but that huge arm made fantasy owners giddy. Add his name to Guerrero, Bichette and Biggio as the resurgent Blue Jays set their sights on bigger and better things ahead in 2021 and beyond. Regarding bullpen kids, I admit I am disappointed we didn't to see Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase this year. I think his future is extremely bright.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• In what had to be one of the biggest surprises (at least to me) at the end of summer training, the Yankees reassigned Jordan Montgomery, meaning he won't be with the big club to begin the season. I haven't yet heard the reasoning, but word is he will be back and in the rotation to start game six.
• In what is beginning to look a bit like a trend, veteran swingman Ross Stripling was named the Dodgers' fifth starter over young Dustin May. This call actually makes sense, but there were several high ceiling young pitchers reassigned or slotted into bullpen roles to begin the year. I look for that to change before long.
• Two young guns in Oakland are also out of the team's initial rotation. A.J. Puk is dealing with renewed shoulder woes – never a good thing – and Jesus Luzardo hasn't had time to build up his pitch count after a positive COVID-19 test. Luzardo should be ready in a couple weeks, but Puk is now a question mark.
• I expected big things from Corbin Burnes when he debuted for the Brewers last season, and the only "big" things we saw were a grossly inflated ERA and WHIP. Now, he has reportedly refocused, and calmed down, so maybe he should get a mulligan for last year and start from scratch this season. His stuff is good enough to succeed, so all he needs to do is believe in that stuff.
• On the 2020 sleeper list, those in deep or AL-only leagues might consider Kansas City's Brady Singer. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, relying on command of his arsenal to generate a lot of groundouts. He joins Brad Keller as Royals arms worth considering if you need help at the back of your rotation.
• I've been watching Miami's Jose Urena the past couple years, and I continue to see flashes of things I like. He began this spring being considered as a possible swingman or long reliever. Now he's listed as their No. 4 starter, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he climbs the food chain to No. 2.

Endgame Odyssey

The Cardinals finally unveiled their plans for Kwang-Hyun Kim and Carlos Martinez. Martinez, who has maintained a strong preference for starting, will pitch in the rotation, while Kim will pitch out of the bullpen. I think both will do well, but Kim's value could take a huge jump if he closes. I do think his save chances could be of the multiple-inning variety as they keep him stretched out just in case he is ever needed in the rotation. Houston's Roberto Osuna probably needs a little more prep time, so Ryan Pressly could see a few save chances until he is ready to step in. The Pirates' Keone Kela is still out, and Kyle Crick has been erratic. Crick may still see some save chances, but keep an eye on how they use Nick Burdi. In Arizona, Archie Bradley has been named the closer, but Kevin Ginkel could still be a nice insurance policy if your roster limitations allow for it. I do think Hunter Harvey will eventually take over the closer in Baltimore, but he is currently suffering from "arm fatigue," so Mychal Givens is probably the lukewarm choice for now. Save chances aren't likely to be very plentiful. I'm not convinced Wade Davis will hold down the closer's role in Colorado, but I suspect he'll get the chance at least until Scott Oberg gets past his back issues. As the season gets underway, the Mets have yet to clearly define bullpen roles. My guess is the big money guy, Edwin Diaz, will get the first look, but if he stumbles like he did last year, the hot hand among Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances and Seth Lugo might get involved. It looks like Tony Watson is the top choice for Giants saves, but Tyler Rogers probably shares the gig.