Mound Musings: Life, the Universe and Everything

We're getting closer, and with players reporting to "spring" training as I type, I am hoping to be able to dive headlong into analysis and evaluation of pitchers. That said, there are some odds and ends to address, and that calls for another Musings' edition of Life, the Universe and Everything, while we all try to continue to answer the ultimate question(s). As we hopefully get up to speed for the 2020 season, I thought it might be a good time to review some of the more recent events that teams, both major league and fantasy, are having to deal with.

60-man Roster Construction: Teams have built their 60-man rosters for the upcoming season, and just glancing at the lists, it appears they are, for the most part, setting up their playing nucleus, while supporting the developmental timeline of top prospects who are closest to major league ready.

Not exclusively, of course, but virtually all of the top-rated pitchers who would be at the Double-A or Triple-A level are included on team's 60-man rosters. That's not surprising. It has long been expected, but earlier this week, cancellation of the minor league season was made official. That means there is no other viable place to continue developing the best prospects in your organization unless they are in the active player pool.

With just 60 players, there are significantly fewer available spots than a team would have available across their major league and upper minor league rosters. It appears the most likely players to be left off are fringy prospects, and Quad-A players – those guys who are primarily veterans, often with some MLB experience, who would typically serve as insurance policies against injuries at the major league level. From a fantasy perspective, the pitchers in this category probably wouldn't be serious considerations anyway, but the top prospects claiming those roster spots might be.

What About These Kids: For most teams, the players in their minor league system are their lifeblood; their future. At least the blue chip prospects are. And, I looked at the pitchers on my kid watch list expected to be at or above the Double-A level this season – all are on the 60-man rosters of their respective teams. In my opinion, not all of them are truly major league ready right now, but it's likely most of them will get at least a taste of the majors later this season.

Many teams would probably prefer to avoid starting the service time clock for prospects who aren't quite ready to contribute. That's especially true for smaller market teams and teams that don't expect to compete for playoff berths this season (although with a short schedule that could be difficult to predict). It's literally a Catch-22 scenario. And, that could be a problem with fantasy implications. Even these blue chip prospects may not see the key role you anticipate them eventually filling, and when they do pitch, an under-prepared prospect can be a disaster.

Revisiting some of these top prospects, the A's Jesus Luzardo might be the safest bet. He looked ready in a brief audition last year, and should have a regular rotation spot this season, but there are others with potentially even higher ceilings. The top prospect on my list, MacKenzie Gore, will be with the Padres, but his role is not clearly defined at this point. He hasn't pitched over Double-A so he probably could have used at least a half season or so at the Triple-A level. Unfortunately, that's not an option. I don't think he'll immediately get thrown into the fray, but he could see some game action later on, albeit quite possibly on a limited basis. The Astros Forrest Whitley and the Blue Jays' Nate Pearson could fall into the same category, although I think Pearson could be a bit closer to contributing, and if Toronto's young position players propel them into the hunt for post-season play, he is probably worth an investment.

Players Opting Out of Playing in 2020: This week we have begun to see another possibility that has been (and will be) very unpredictable. Arizona's Mike Leake and Washington's Joe Ross (as well as a handful of position players) have announced they will opt out of playing the 2020 season. Both pitchers made the personal decision based on the health risk of playing with the pandemic still a very real threat to their families. I don't believe they were considered at a higher risk personally, but there are players with pre-existing health concerns that could also decide not to play.

Neither Leake nor Ross figured to have a huge impact on fantasy teams but their being unavailable could certainly impact the rotations of their teams and, in deeper leagues, that could have some impact. Leake's departure probably provides a clearer path to starts for Merrill Kelly who I think could offer potential value as a back-of-the-rotation option in deeper or NL-only leagues. Similarly, Ross opting out should award opportunity to Austin Voth who I feel may have already been the better choice. And, Erick Fedde also moves up a notch on the Nationals' food chain.

This is a situation that will require monitoring. So far, the players involved in lost production should be relatively easy for a fantasy team owner to overcome. However, if a marquee player opts out, it could be devastating for the MLB team, and his fantasy team – a scenario that is significantly magnified by the short schedule.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Like most pitchers, new Yankees' ace, Gerrit Cole, is not expected to be stretched out enough to accumulate 100 pitches in his initial starts. A workhorse, he is arguably the top starting pitcher in the game today, and even he is unlikely to qualify for a quality start right out of the gate. However, they will come.
• Interestingly, the Pirates' Jameson Taillon is still on their 40-man roster. He will not pitch in the majors this season, but the team wants to keep him actively working on mechanical adjustments designed to reduce stress on his elbow, hopefully avoiding further injuries following his second Tommy John surgery.
• Astros' manager Dusty Baker recently indicated that Lance McCullers might be ahead of the other Houston pitchers in his preparation for the 2020 season. He missed 2019 following Tommy John surgery, which led to intense rehab, and the shorter season will probably eliminate workload restrictions. He's a good buy.
• Zack Greinke has announced he needs just two weeks to be fully prepared for the season to begin. At first glance that might seem overly optimistic, but wily veterans like Greinke have been through preparing for an upcoming season many times, and these veterans might be slightly better bets early on.
• I was a little bit surprised Minnesota's Jordan Balazovic wasn't included on their 60-man roster. Granted, he has yet to pitch above High-A ball, and he is not really ready to contribute at the MLB level, so maybe the Twins felt they needed the spot for a player who's likely to help this year. He remains intriguing to me.
• In general, ADP's of starting pitchers are falling later into drafts. It's based on limited workloads early equating to fewer wins/quality starts, but I wouldn't let possible horses like, for example, Walker Buehler, drop too far. Their quality innings, strikeouts and eventual wins will become increasingly important.

Endgame Odyssey:

Of note, Chicago Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy, who has just recently come back from a bout with the coronavirus that saw him lose 18 pounds over a month long recovery period, is predicting that even with the initial 30-man active MLB rosters, relievers could be asked to pitch multiple innings in "bullpen" games. My read on this is possible added value for relievers who can be trusted in higher leverage situations. They can help protect your WHIP and ERA while hopefully picking up vulture wins and/or holds. The key is focusing on manager-trusted relievers who are most likely to be saved for "game on the line" innings. A few relief pitchers who come to mind could include Daniel Hudson, Seth Lugo, Ryan Pressly, Blake Treinen, Will Smith, Rafael Montero, Amir Garrett and Zack Britton. Any of these guys could perhaps cash in on expanded opportunities. Miami Marlins' righty Ryne Stanek has been deemed fully healthy after recovering from a back injury early this spring. The versatile Stanek could be a possibility for saves if the team can cover starting assignments without using him as a opener. The Cardinals have announced Jordan Hicks will begin this season on the injured list, but they expect him to return before the season ends. He should eventually reclaim the closer's gig, but it's a question mark whether it will be in 2020.