Mound Musings: A Season Like No Other

Fifty-plus years of following baseball, and I certainly can't recall anything like this. It's mid-April and the season hasn't begun. In fact, there isn't any real plan for an Opening Day anytime in the immediate future, and alternative scenarios for playing the MLB season appear pretty much every day. And, those scenarios seem to move, probably out of necessity, further and further away from "traditional" Major League Baseball. Many of these variations could significantly impact your fantasy team if they come to pass. There are so many things to look at, so let's go.

Playing in Arizona and Florida: One interesting option being discussed for the 2020 regular season would see all the games played in Arizona and Florida in the various spring training cities. At first glance, this wouldn't seem to offer much impact on the fantasy season, but think about it. This plan would entail a temporary realignment of divisions based on basic geography. Teams based in Arizona, both American and National League clubs, would play in that state, while Florida-based teams would hold their games there. Notably, the designated hitter rule would be implemented for all games, changing the value of some National League hitters, and exposing pitchers on those teams to an additional hitter. That would likely reduce the value of most pitchers in that league slightly. However, there is an even bigger impact that may not immediately come to mind. Top of the list … the Rockies' pitchers have no home games in Coors Field. Conversely, several other teams suffer or benefit from moving their home games to another venue.

I admit to not having done an in-depth analysis of the spring training facilities, but teams who normally play in very hitter-friendly stadiums like Colorado, Baltimore, Toronto and Cincinnati could see a boost in value for their pitchers, while teams with pitcher-friendly home parks like Miami, San Diego, San Francisco and Oakland could see their pitchers taking a bit of a hit. Keep in mind, better pitchers probably won't be affected as much by pitching in better hitter's parks, and poor pitchers are unlikely to become aces simply by pitching their 2020 home games in more pitcher-friendly venues.

This is certainly not a cast in stone plan for the regular season, but if it happens, I have adjusted my anticipated values upward for a few pitchers including these:

• Jon Gray (Rockies) – He has some electric stuff, and I have always said he could be a draft day target if he pitched anywhere but Coors Field. This might be his chance to make that comment viable. Gray actually pitched better in Colorado last season, but I expect that to normalize somewhat in 2020.
• Hyun-Jin Ryu (Blue Jays) – He was being passed over until fairly late in many fantasy leagues, presumably based on the move from the NL West and Dodger Stadium to the hitter-friendly AL East and the Rogers Centre. Both should be off the table if all their games end up being played in Florida.
• German Marquez (Rockies) – The only downside to including him on this list is the fact that expectations may have already been a bit high. Like Gray, he has dominating stuff when everything is clicking, and a one season vacation from Coors could bump his value quite a bit. Just don't get carried away.
• Trevor Bauer (Reds) – A bit of a wild card, Bauer struggled last year, especially with regard to keeping the ball in the yard. Cincinnati is a dangerous park for pitchers who allow too many flyballs, so a more tranquil ballpark should benefit him. Just be aware, he also needs to stay focused to enjoy those benefits.

Now we'll flip the coin and consider some pitchers who might be adversely affected by a negative change in home venues including those listed below:

• Sandy Alcantara (Marlins) – I was already a little skittish about his projections coming into this year, mostly based on the inconsistency of his secondary stuff. Losing the extremely pitcher-friendly home park in Miami for half of his starts likely would be enough to earn him a spot on the pitchers to avoid list.
• Jeff Samardzija (Giants) – A flyball pitcher who struggled to keep the ball in the yard while pitching in a friendly park like Oracle Park is probably not someone to be heavily trusted if he loses that advantage. I've always liked him, but he just doesn't have the pure stuff to get away with mistakes at this point in his career.
• Chris Paddack (Padres) – I hesitated to put him on this list because his stuff and command are nearly good enough for him to overcome the switch to a more volatile home field. He's included simply because I was expecting a small regression anyway, and this would only make that slightly more likely.
• Mike Fiers (A's) – I have long thought Fiers tended to be too hittable, and fewer foul balls and deep flies ending up in a fielder's glove just magnifies that concern. I think a move could potentially impact almost all of the Oakland starters, but Fiers looks the most vulnerable to me. I'm staying away from him.

Deeper rosters could dilute bullpens: Originally, active MLB rosters were to increase to 26 players. It was widely acknowledged that many teams would carry an additional pitcher. Now with the delay, the consensus is teams will be allowed to carry as many as 29 or 30 active players. Several factors could play into the decisions regarding which players might fill those slots. The status of the minor league season is still in question. If those games are cancelled, will that increase the chances of prospects deemed close to major league ready be added to keep their development on track? Or, will they be put on hold to delay MLB service time? One thing is almost certain. Some of those spots will need to be pitchers, expanding bullpens in order to compensate for compressed schedules. The fantasy question is how that might impact role assignments.

Most relievers work a maximum of two or three days in a row, and they rarely pitch in both games of a doubleheader. It is expected there will be fewer off days, and there are likely to be fairly numerous scheduled doubleheaders in an attempt to get as many games as possible into the regular season. It's my guess this will make it more difficult to predict save (and hold) chances, and primary closers will still get the lion's share, but other relievers, sometimes without a solid endgame skillset, will also be thrust into late-inning duty. This should increase the value of relievers who thrive on heavier workloads while reducing the effectiveness of those who struggle when asked to pitch too many days in a row. Managers will adjust, relying more heavily on their workhorse relievers.

A heavy schedule will tax starting pitching rotations: A tightly compacted schedule could have an even greater impact on starting rotations. Starters typically take the mound every fifth day, and hope to complete six or seven innings. Let's assume the majority of fantasy-relevant starters will be stretched out enough to handle that. But, what if the tighter schedule, including doubleheaders, packs six or seven games into quite a few five-day stretches? Regular starting pitchers won't often be asked to pitch with less than five day's rest, regardless of the number of games played during that five-day period. The bottom line will be the need for six or even seven starters, even for teams that would otherwise struggle to send out a competitive five-man rotation. This could force teams to go to an "opener" approach, or perhaps they will take this chance to work in their top prospects while limiting their exposure  (that's my hope), but some teams will just run out a weak starter, a time bomb ready and capable of destroying your team's ERA and WHIP. Be sure you invoke the "do no harm" principle here.

The one thing we know for certain is that unprecedented events will give a season with no template to follow – assuming the season happens. I think it will, in some yet to be determined format. Baseball is our national game. Rotations and bullpens could be in a state of flux all year. We'll just need to be ready to adjust.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I almost added Toronto's Nate Pearson to the pitchers possibly benefitting from a venue change this year. Currently No. 2 on my pitching prospects list, it would also take some of the new kid in town pressure off. The biggest question remains what the delayed season will mean to his eventual call-up date.
• The only pitcher I'm more anxious to see on a major league mound than Pearson is San Diego's MacKenzie Gore, even if it's not at PETCO Park. Even though he would technically be in the disadvantage list, he is probably a bit more likely to make his debut in 2020, and I'm fairly confident he will be up to the task.
• Since I began these notes on a couple top shelf kids, I'll continue by saying Oakland has a pair of top 10 pitching prospects who should both pitch for the A's this year. Jesus Luzardo should take a turn every five days, and A.J. Puk, while likely used more judiciously, also will probably see fairly regular starts.
• Another young arm who could earn a bump in value is Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller. I have been impressed while watching him pitch at Triple-A Indianapolis, but his command seems to desert him at the major league level. He's clearly high risk with the potential for high reward if he starts trusting his very good stuff.

Endgame Odyssey:

In Boston, Brandon Workman is expected to be the closer this season, but there is talk they may be grooming Darwinzon Hernandez to assume the role in the future. The southpaw will need to refine his command, but he has the raw tools. I am still intrigued by the likely closer auditions in Seattle. I think Yoshihisa Hirano probably claims the gig initially, but there are serious contenders lurking in the shadows like Austin Adams, who has been proclaimed healthy after undergoing knee surgery. Perhaps my favorite closer in waiting is Cleveland's Emmanuel Clase. While Brad Hand is still the ninth-inning guy for the Indians, if Clase proves himself in high leverage work, and I think he will, Hand could become trade bait, and open the door. Following a back injury, Clase was expected to be out until June, but that could now be a moot point. Greg Holland and Trevor Rosenthal both performed reasonably well as nonroster invitees to the Royals' spring training camp, but the once promising Rosenthal is the one who might have earned some higher leverage innings. Miami's Ryne Stanek could go from opener to closer this season. He started 29 games last year as an "opener," but when healthy, he could challenge Brandon Kintzler for the ninth-inning assignment. He suffered a lower back injury this spring, but the delay in starting the season should see him ready to go.