Mound Musings: In Search of Value

This year, the best laid plans for drafting pitchers can change in a moment's notice. The prevailing thoughts right now mention the actual season beginning in June, perhaps in Arizona, or maybe in empty stadiums. Realistically, it's probably too early to etch that in stone, but there remains a likelihood the season will happen, at least in part. If and when the season opens, one thing will be completely unchanged – value will win fantasy championships. So, we still need to focus on uncovering that value.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have the potential to provide value when the season begins. Understand, these pitchers won't necessarily be "aces," but they can outperform their draft positions or auction prices, and that is what fantasy is all about. We certainly need to keep the peripherals in mind from the past few seasons, but it's more important to identify factors that could lead to better numbers this year. If you can draft a roster full of players in the fifth or sixth rounds who perform like players taken in the second or third rounds, you will be in the hunt at the end of the season.

You might consider adding these arms as potential value picks:

Yu Darvish (Cubs, ADP 60) – For me, it's pretty simple. When Darvish's entire eight-pitch repertoire (and that really isn't an exaggeration) is clicking, he's a top 10 starter. His recent ADP puts him around 20 to 22 in the starting pitcher food chain, and while nagging injuries have resulted in a lot of inconsistency the past couple of seasons, he was clearly getting healthy, and putting it all together in the second half of 2019. I named him a Cy Young candidate last spring, and I was a half-season early. I'm going to put that label on him again this season. If everything falls into place, he has the tools to post numbers well beyond the preseason expectations.

Madison Bumgarner (Diamondbacks, ADP 109) – This one could be the biggest gap between his draft position and the season's production. Bumgarner covers a plethora of expectation angles. He has dealt with multiple injuries in the recent past, and while Arizona isn't quite as pitcher-friendly as San Francisco, it's no longer the launching pad it once was, and Mad Bum is a prime candidate to enjoy the shot of adrenalin that often comes with the "changes in latitudes" angle. It wasn't that long ago Bumgarner was stringing together six seasons of 200-plus innings, with sub 3.00 ERAs and a healthy number of strikeouts. There is, of course, the chance that he's actually in decline, but I don't think so, and a return to his old form would be a windfall for fantasy teams.

James Paxton (Yankees, ADP 134) – Yes, there is a common thread to some of these projections, and none of the pitchers listed here are more dependent on good health than Paxton. When he's completely healthy, he can truly be as dominant as any pitcher in baseball. I had the pleasure of enjoying his no-hitter in Toronto, and they literally had no answer to his stuff. The problem is, he has never exceeded about 160 innings in a season, and he had lower back surgery, which delayed his spring work this year. Reports are that he is feeling good and progressing in his rehab, so the delay in the beginning of the regular season gives him time to get ready, and a potentially shortened season might require fewer innings from him to outdistance his ADP expectations. I'll say it again, he is a health risk, but the potential payoff could easily be worth that risk. 

Mike Soroka (Braves, ADP 91) – I've liked just about everything about Soroka since the first time I saw him pitch. He has a full repertoire of above average offerings he will throw in any count or situation. His command is generally very good as he works in and out while staying down in the zone most of the time. That leads to a lot of weak contact. He's not going to be a huge strikeout pitcher, but I think he can average about one an inning, and that's what he will need to accomplish in order to beat his ADP slot. Perhaps his biggest attribute is an exemplary level of mound presence, which keeps him in games even when things don't go according to plan, making his floor somewhat safer than most pitchers. Typically the youngest pitcher at every stop he made on his way to Atlanta, Soroka stepped up like a seasoned veteran. That's a winner's pedigree.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (Blue Jays, ADP 127) – I understand that moving from the Dodgers to Toronto will probably put a dent in his peripherals, but come on, Ryu lead MLB in ERA last year (2.32) over 183 innings, and that was following up a season where he posted a microscopic 1.97 ERA over 15 starts. It's important to note that his WHIP was an identical 1.01 over those two seasons, and his homerun rate actually dipped as he increased the number of groundballs induced. I do expect his ERA to rise a bit pitching in the explosive AL East, but I believe the lukewarm interest he's generating in many drafts is an overreaction to his new home. His current ADP puts him at about 50 on the pitcher food chain, and he could post numbers warranting a top-20 spot.

Julio Urias (Dodgers, ADP 141) – Urias has actually been around since 2016 when he tossed 77 innings for the Dodgers as a 19-year-old. However, injuries have slowed his progress, including anterior capsule surgery that cost him most of 2018 and limited his innings last year. That has led to him being a bit forgotten in some leagues. Don't make that mistake. The team is understandably being very cautious with his workload. So, my concern is not so much whether he will shatter his production projections, he will, I'm just not completely certain it will be this season. Urias is a blue-chip star just waiting to rise. He will be right at the top of the rotation when he reaches his full potential, and I don't want to be watching from the dugout when it happens. Go get him now.

Garrett Richards (Padres, ADP 254) – I realize it would be almost impossible to fill a fantasy rotation with top-50 or top-60 pitchers, so I wanted to be sure to include a couple names who are likely to be available much later in drafts while offering strong possibilities of exceeding draft day expectations. Richards heads this group. It seems like a long time ago when he caught my eye (2014 to 2015 to be exact), but he could be ready to reemerge this year. He's in San Diego now – that's a good thing – and I had a chance to see him pitch this spring. That electric stuff he featured was back. If you can land him to fill a spot at the back of your rotation, do it. The dividends may be huge, making him worth a shot.

Jordan Montgomery (Yankees, ADP 313) – Montgomery is one of those guys I like a little bit more every time I see him pitch. He's not projected to be an ace. In fact, before Luis Severino was declared out for the season, there was some question as to whether there would be room for him in the Yankees' rotation. He should be locked in now. Because he is coming back from 2018 Tommy John surgery, his workload will no doubt be limited, but he should be able to serve you well as a back-of-the-rotation starter who can actually make a positive contribution. Command is the most concerning aspect of his projections. He's a young southpaw, so command is often late to come, and coming back after missing virtually an entire season just magnifies that concern.

There are more. These players are just some of the best bets to outperform their ADPs. I'll conclude with this collection of honorable mentions worth considering if you are still shopping for a pitcher to help your team. Luke Weaver (Diamondbacks), Masahiro Tanaka (Yankees), Sean Manaea (A's) and Cole Hamels (Braves).

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Maybe the hardest thing to do is watching a pitcher fighting to find his groove. It's hard because you remember enough to know it was there. Matt Harvey simply doesn't have raw ability he possessed prior to Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS) surgery, and that is an example of why I avoid those cases more and more.
• Griffin Canning is throwing again after being shut down earlier this spring with a UCL injury to his throwing elbow. If healthy, and he can stay that way, he could possibly be a useful arm at the back of a fantasy rotation, but there is considerable risk attached with an injury of this nature. I can't recommend him.
• The Dodgers' Alex Wood had an impressive spring before the shutdown and could be in line for a solid season. He could still be something of an injury risk, but he has modified his mechanics, resulting in increased velocity, and hopefully improved durability. Keep an eye on him when play resumes.
• I'm a bit concerned about Blake Snell. He had a rough season last year and ultimately had minor elbow surgery in July. The elbow was causing problems early in the spring but was reportedly better before spring training ended. A healthy Snell is top-of-the-rotation good, but the elbow status is scary.
• I'm hoping for a bounce-back season from the Cardinals' Miles Mikolas. There were times he just didn't appear to be fully in sync last year, leading to fewer groundballs and more homeruns. He experienced some forearm issues that likely contributed, but those are reportedly behind him. He's worthy of consideration.
• Another major disappointment was Seattle's Yusei Kikuchi. I invested pretty heavily in him, and inconsistent command lead to a whopping 36 homeruns in just 161 innings. He's better than that, and he was working on adding a change-up before spring training was put on hold. I'll give him a mulligan for 2019.

Endgame Odyssey:

With baseball on hold, assessing bullpen roles is problematic. And, if expanded rosters are implemented when play resumes, deeper bullpens could lead to watered down hold and save chances. There are a couple situations to keep in mind. Joe Jimenez will open the season as Detroit's closer, but he just hasn't convinced me he's a lock to hold the job long term. There aren't many viable options, but Buck Farmer did have a solid spring. Conversely, while the Pirates already named Keone Kela their closer, he did not have a very good spring, and he could be a trade candidate (he'll be a free agent at the end of this season). Again, there isn't a lot to get excited about in their pen. Kyle Crick could get a look, or a dark horse candidate might be Nick Burdi. He has a big arm, however, he is yet another TOS casualty, so health will be a concern.