The Z Files: Flaws and Limitations of Valuation Theory
The Z Files: Flaws and Limitations of Valuation Theory

This article is part of our The Z Files series.

It's no secret: projections are flawed. Seventy percent accuracy is bandied about, though it's not exactly clear what that means. Regardless, projection theory is not an exact science.

On the other hand, the efficacy of valuation theory isn't challenged, at least nowhere even close to the extent of projection theory. Here's the dirty little secret: it should be.

Valuation theory is very much flawed, yet so many treat projected auction prices, the resultant draft rankings and even end-of-season earnings as gospel, a static number.

The flaws go way beyond the inaccuracy of the projections fueling the algorithm-driven system. Even if projections were magically known, the resultant "value" isn't correct. Allow me to explain…

Value is the most misused term in fantasy baseball, well, all fantasy sports. Value is past tense. We don't know a player's value until after the season. Yet, many will contend a good draft or auction is all about getting value. A perceived good pick or buy is deemed a great value. After an MLB trade, everyone wants to know how a player's value will change.

I get it. I know what everyone means. Once a year I blow off a little steam and make this challenge. When you see or hear "value" in fantasy analysis, substitute "potential". Around 95 percent of the time, the statement makes more sense. The rest of the time replace it with "price". At the end of day, it doesn't matter, people know what you mean when you say "value". My point

Want to Read More?
Subscribe to RotoWire to see the full article.

We reserve some of our best content for our paid subscribers. Plus, if you choose to subscribe you can discuss this article with the author and the rest of the RotoWire community.

Get Instant Access To This Article Get Access To This Article
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MLB Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MLB fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Todd Zola
Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year. Todd is a five-time FSWA awards finalist.
Rounding Third: Fear of Missing Out
Rounding Third: Fear of Missing Out
The Z Files: Flattening the Valuation Curve
The Z Files: Flattening the Valuation Curve
Mound Musings: Bullpens With Unanswered Questions
Mound Musings: Bullpens With Unanswered Questions
Regan's Rumblings: Delay Could Lead to Increased Values
Regan's Rumblings: Delay Could Lead to Increased Values