Collette Calls: 2020 NL Central Bold Predictions
Collette Calls: 2020 NL Central Bold Predictions

This article is part of our Collette Calls series.

To review the premise of this 2020 series, please review the opening of the first installment of this year's series. To review the 2019 NL Bold Predictions, click here

Chicago

Ian Happ is a top-250 player.  Happ is ranked 342nd in NFBC drafts with an ADP of 347 and a range from 300 to 430. It was not that long ago we all loved this guy, but his current ADP feels like a heavy dose of recency bias. Yes, the contact rate was abysmal in 2018, and he spent a lot of time in Triple-A last year because there was not an open roster spot for him and he frankly wasn't doing much in the PCL even with the new baseball. 

Eleven homers in 156 plate appearances, even with the 2019 conditions, is impressive. He did it on the back of a 26 percent HR/FB%, which is nearly identical to his 25 percent rate from that 2017 season. This time around, he did it with a lower pull percentage and used all parts of the field. He also did this while reducing his strikeout rate from 36 to 25 percent. His swinging strike rate is still bad at 15 percent, but he has reduced his two-strike strikeout percentage from a lost-cause 58 percent to 40 percent last season. 

If 2018 taught him anything, it was that he was too passive in those situations and looked to walk, which he did 15 percent of the time, but the price

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Collette
Jason has been helping fantasy owners since 1999 at RotoJunkie, Fanball, Baseball Prospectus and now here at RotoWire. He covers the Tampa Bay Rays at theprocessreport.net. You can hear Jason weekly on many of the Sirius/XM Fantasy channel offerings throughout the season as well as on the Sleeper and the Bust podcast on iTunes. An eight-time FSWA finalist, Jason won the FSWA's Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year award in 2013 and the Baseball Series of the Year award in 2018 for Collette Calls.
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