The Z Files: My Top 20 Catchers

When it comes to fantasy baseball game theory, there's little right or wrong. There's some better or worse, but most of the time, it's just different. As the saying goes, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Don't worry, no felines will be harmed in this discussion, unless you are butt-hurt Grayson Greiner didn't make the top 20.

One area I'll hold my ground as being right is catcher valuation. It doesn't matter for this list as the rankings are relative to each other, not the rest of the league. Still, I'm irked by a large contingent of fantasy analysts and players getting this wrong.

Simply put, the number of catchers assigned positive value is exactly the number needed for everyone to assemble a legal roster. In a 15-team, two catcher league, there are 30 backstops projected to earn at least $1. In a 10-team format with one catcher, 10 receivers have positive value. A pricing adjustment is necessary and obligatory to the process for two-catcher formats. Otherwise, fewer than required catchers will be priced with positive potential earnings, hence the mistake that there "aren't enough catchers." Yes, there are; you're pricing them incorrectly.

It's an oversimplification, but let's say there's a contest featuring the RotoWire Monday and Friday podcast hosts. You get a point for every time one of us mentions one of our teams. The caveat is you need to draft one host from each day. After going back and reviewing archived podcasts, you estimate we mentioned our teams the following number of times per podcast:

Monday

• Jeff Erickson 15
• Scott Jenstad 5

Friday

• Clay Link 15
• Todd Zola 20

You get the first pick; who are you taking? If you take me, you'll be left with Scott, for a total of 25 mentions. The other person wins with 30 from Jeff and Clay. Even though I was the most self-centered of the group, my mentions are less useful, since they outpointed my partner's by only five. Meanwhile, Jeff eclipsed the humble Scott by 10.

Stats from a catcher are akin to the Monday podcast. A lower replacement level renders more of the catcher's raw total helpful. You want to assign value to only that which is useful. Sure, they all count equally in the standings, but a homer or whatever from a catcher is worth more than from other players.

To complete the story, the worst drafted player on each team actually earns $0. However, in auctions, the minimum bid is $1 so everyone carries a marginal cost of $1. For instance, a $30 player earns $29, a $13 player earns $12, etc.

With that out of the way, let's shift to the 2020 catcher pool. One of the stories of the 2019 campaign was surprising production from the position, especially in the American League. As expected, this is reflected in the initial rankings with an aggregate $15-$20 higher expected earnings in 2020 compared to last season. According to last season's ADP, nine new backstops project in the top 20, at least according to my rankings. We'll find out what the market says soon enough.

Here are my initial top 20 catchers, subject to change as I dig deeper and teams firm up plans. There are nine entries from the American League, eight from the senior circuit and three free agents. To build intrigue and suspense, they're listed in reverse order.

20. Robinson Chirinos, Free Agent

Chirinos did exactly as expected in his one-year stint with the Astros, displaying a little pop in between strikeouts while playing slightly above average defense, albeit with below average framing skills. This ranking assumes Chirinos will be the main guy on his new team. However, he'll be 36 years old next June so it may be time for a reduced workload, despite playing 114 and 113 games the past two seasons.

19. Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

You are hereby granted the Lord Zola seal of approval. When someone decrees, "How the mighty have fallen," feel free to throat punch the cretin. Anyway, yes, Posey is a shell of his former self. Get this: from 2012-2017, Posey played in the 22nd-most games with the 30th-most plate appearances among all position players. That's mind-boggling for someone whose primary position is behind the plate. Of course, the time at first base helped, but still. Unfortunately, the future Hall of Famer's current game is eroding across the board, though he remains an elite framer. His plate skills are trending in the wrong direction as is his batted ball profile.

18. Danny Jansen, Toronto Blue Jays

Jansen's ADP was a robust eighth among catchers in the spring, buoyed by those chasing the shiny new toy at a desolate position. For much of the season, he was a huge bust, saved by a .373/.393/.780 line for three-plus weeks in mid-June through early July. Even so, Jansen was a major disappointment, not unusual for highly touted catchers. With a year under his belt, look for him to bounce back and reclaim the starting gig he lost to Reese McGuire down the stretch.

17. Roberto Perez, Cleveland Indians

Perez rewarded the Indians for entrusting him with a regular role, obliterating his personal bests across the board while winning the American League Gold Glove. The defensive wizardry may not count in fantasy, but it will help Perez remain the bell cow if his newfound batting prowess wanes. To wit, heading into the year, he clubbed a meager 21 homers in 963 career trips to the dish. In 2019, he slammed 24 in 449 plate appearances. He'll be hard-pressed to match that total considering a likely regression to his 28% HR/FB mark, in concert with a 50% ground ball clip, but with volume now part of his profile, Perez should clear the fence enough to remain a fantasy asset despite a low batting average.

16. Omar Narvaez, Seattle Mariners

Narvaez possesses an odd profile. Historically, he carries a high line drive rate with a low hard-hit clip. This is dangerous, since exit velocity is far more stable than line drives. The message is don't count on Narvaez maintaining such a high average; there's a risk his liners decrease, dragging batting average down with it.

15. James McCann, Chicago White Sox

McCann is one of the more notable jumpers from last season, setting personal bests everywhere. He wasn't expected to be the main guy, but an injury to Welington Castillo elevated the former Tigers backstop to regular playing time. Castillo is no longer with the club, though on-base machine Zack Collins looms. Chances are, Collins won't be ready to take over, at least for a few months. McCann's surge was supported by an increase in exit velocity and hard-hit rate, though a drop in launch angle and increase in strikeout rate warn of giveback in both power and average. Still, McCann should play enough to produce top-20 numbers, just don't pay for last season's exploits.

14. Carson Kelly, Arizona Diamondbacks

Objective projection systems are going to pull in 2017 and 2018 where Kelly's MLB numbers were dreadful. While they can't be completely ignored, it's defensible to discount them relative to 2019's maturation. In fact, there's a chance Kelly betters last season's production as he gains more experience and confidence. The difference in projected earnings at this point in the rankings is so small it's justifiable to grab him a little early and hope for the upside.

13. Travis d'Arnaud, Free Agent

Many seem to think d'Arnaud's season came out of nowhere. Ignoring a white-hot streak, his production mirrored that of most of his career. The problem has always been health. He missed almost all of 2018 following Tommy John surgery and parts of previous seasons, mainly with shoulder woes. Injuries will always be a concern, though staying in the American League would help if he gets to DH on occasion. Drafting d'Arnaud commensurate with this ranking is a risk. However, once the injury discount kicks in, he should be in the mix.

12. Jorge Alfaro, Miami Marlins

Overlooked due to playing in a weak offense in an extreme pitcher's park, Alfaro's 101 runs plus RBI was a respectable 15th at the position. Add in that his batting average was 13th among catchers with at least 250 plate appearances, and a top-12 ranking makes sense. Not to mention, the former Phillies backstop is still just 26 years old and catchers are often slower to develop their offense. Alfaro's hard-hit rate and sprint speed rank very highly for the position.

11. Kurt Suzuki, Washington Nationals

With Yan Gomes a free agent, Suzuki lines up for an increase in playing time. Though, as a 36-year-old catcher with years of squatting on a relatively small frame for the position, it wouldn't be surprising if the defending champions brought in some help. Even so, Suzuki has established a bankable floor, coming off a campaign where he bashed the second-most homers of his career.

10. Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers

"Which one?" Get ready as that will be uttered at just about every live draft, especially if the other one lands in a spot where he'll close. The Dodgers version leapfrogged Keibert Ruiz as a prospect then supplanted Austin Barnes as the regular catcher. Even though Ruiz is still in the organization, Smith looks to be the guy in Chavez Ravine. He is an extreme flyball hitter, aiding power while potentially hurting batting average. That said, Smith's sprint speed is above average for a catcher as is his average exit velocity, so there's a chance his BABIP isn't completely torpedoed. One area needing work is contact, but note Smith has always improved the second time around at a level, boding well for further growth.

9. Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

Contreras rebounded from a down 2018, essentially repeating 2017's level with more power, likely a result of the juiced ball. Chances are, 2018 is the outlier, though it serves as a hedge since repeating 2019 would vault Contreras into top-five contention. If you're confident last season was the norm, factoring in standard variance, bump him up to the sixth spot, ahead of the ensuing risky options.

8. Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals

Upon first blush, I wasn't comfortable with this ranking. I've opted to go with it, for now. Aging and increased injury risk has been accounted for. The main reason I'm trusting the process is Molina's power drop occurred despite an average fly ball distance portending more homers. Regressing his 2019 total based on that suggests a power rebound. There's risk, but chances are you won't need to pay this high a cost, rendering the veteran a potential target later.

7. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

Chances are, the market will be reticent in early drafts after Perez missed all of 2019 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. He's on target to be ready in the spring but most will want to get a glimpse before investing draft capital in a veteran turning 30 years old in May. In 2018, Perez hit for power but his average dipped, adding additional risk. There's also a question how much he will play relative to previous seasons, though with the injury not involving his legs or trunk, he should have a couple seasons of workhorse status left.

6. Christian Vazquez, Boston Red Sox

Yes, I'm a card-carrying member of Red Sox Nation, but I promise this is an objective outlook. That said, watching Vazquez inspires confidence the improvements captured by the projection engine are sustainable. In addition, he is likely to play at least as much, if not more, than previously so he has volume by his side. Vazquez's success was driven by a huge leap in hard hit rate, fueled by a more aggressive approach. Overall, his contact dropped but he was more aggressive within the zone, turning on inside pitches more as evidenced by a slight increase in pull rate. Still, he'll be hard pressed to maintain all his gains so temper expectations, especially in batting average. The landing point will still be fantasy friendly, as are the latent steals Vazquez contributes.

5. Yasmani Grandal, Free Agent

Grandal's ultimate rank revolves around his new home. Milwaukee was a great fit as Miller Park favors both power and runs. On paper, almost any place he goes will be a downgrade. On the other hand, Grandal is one of the few bell cows, who's on-base strength can earn him playing time at first base, or designated hitter if he crosses leagues. In 2019, Grandal played in 153 games, amassing 632 plate appearances. Plan on at least 50 fewer, regardless where he signs.

4. Wilson Ramos, New York Mets

Ramos has quietly been one of the more productive backstops, save for 2017 when he was recovering from tearing his ACL at the end of the 2016 campaign. There's slight concern his power dropped last year though a healthy average fly ball distance assuages those worries. He's not a sexy pick, but the combination of an excellent contact rate and above average hard-hit rate avail Ramos a solid floor.

3. Mitch Garver, Minnesota Twins

So much for last season's sleeper status. As the kids say, Garver is woke. A significant increase in launch angle in concert with an elevated average exit velocity propelled his power to new heights. In instances such as this, some of the gains are usually given back. Even with substantial regression, Garver looks to be one of the top fantasy catchers, playing a lot in a productive lineup, and in a venue conducive to scoring runs.

2. Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

Sanchez's power fully returned, albeit with a depressed average. On the bright side, the underlying metrics portend a higher BABIP so there's a good chance he'll hit for a higher average than the past couple of seasons. Health and defense remain a concern. Despite improving his framing, Sanchez rates a tick below average defensively. The chatter wondering if the Yankees should use him less behind the plate is gaining steam again. There are few players, let alone catchers, with as wide a range of outcomes as Sanchez.

1. J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies

So much for suspense, as the gap between Realmuto and Sanchez is vast, considerably larger than that between the top two at any other position. Realmuto does it all, hitting for average with decent power and sneaky steals. He's a true bell cow entering his age-29 season, so workload shouldn't be an issue. Drafting Realmuto boils down to the willingness to pay for the huge delta he yields at the position, knowing it will cost and put you behind the eight ball at other spots. Don't reach, but if his draft price is in sync with his expected production, strongly consider pulling the trigger.