Collette Calls: More Accountability

My original intent was to use this article to recap the season that was, but I'll postpone the column one more week. I have been hard at work prepping for First Pitch Arizona in early October with focus on the absurd surge in power this year and how it will impact our 2020 draft plans. I'm in a fantastic session with Rob Silver, Tristan Cockcroft and Todd Zola with Ron Shandler moderating the panel, and I hope to see some of you in attendance.

Instead, I would like to do another accountability column looking back at what I penned two months ago as I gave you advice on players who I thought could have strong closes to the season and end up in the top 10 of the counting categories. 

Batting Average: Yuli Gurriel has hit .290 since the start of August, but that has only been good enough to be 46th on the overall batting average list in that time span. Thirty-six qualified players hit at least .300 over the final two months of the season led by Tim Anderson's improbable run. Anderson has hit .372 over the last 50 games, with the same low walk-high strikeout numbers he has always had while enjoying a tremendous amount of batted ball luck thanks to a .448 batting average on balls in play. 

If a player is going to put as many balls in play as Anderson does with his impatient approach, having 45 percent of them go for hits is a good thing. The graph above shows how the recent hot streak has indeed been fun if he is on your roster, but the regression monster lurks in the offseason shadows.

Home Runs: Trevor Story has hit 13 homers since August 1, including the gut punch homer Saturday to beat Milwaukee. Those 13 homers put Story in the top 25 the last two months, but 24 other players have out-homered him led by the heater Eugenio Suarez has been on this summer. Suarez is slugging .668 since August 1 with 20 homers (and 32 RBIs??!!) base. Story has hit .328/.406/.590 the last two months, but even that 142 wRC+ only gets him into the top 30. There has simply been an impressive display of offense from many usual suspects as well as surprise surgers the final two months. Anyone have Marcus Semien hitting 16 homers in two months? Aristides Aquino doing what he has done since his recall? Jose Altuve outhomering Matt Chapman in the same amount of plate appearances? The super ball and hot weather has led to an unusual close to the season.

Runs: Jorge Polanco at least finished in the top 10 of runs scored, but it is the enduring fantasy tease that is Trea Turner who has led the league in runs since August 1 with 48. Polanco has maintained a strong OBP of .356 since the beginning of August and has scored 41 times, so he was not far off the pace.  Shortstop as a whole has come roaring back this year and Polanco's season of 22 homers, 107 runs, 79 RBIs and a .296 average only has him 12th on our EAV Calculator. That is what happens when TEN players who qualify at shortstop hit at least 30 homers in a season. 

RBIs: Eddie Rosario drove in 39 runs with a disappointing .265/.284/.460 slash line since August 1. That stacked Minnesota lineup still allowed him to finish in the top 20 for RBI production in that time frame, but he is 10 RBIs behind the leader — Jose Abreu. The Abreu production is pleasing to me as he was one of my bold predictions as a severely undervalued asset in draft season and yet he is going to close the season as a top-five first baseman. Rosario left a lot on the table as his 87 wRC+ suggests, because even an average final two months of the season would have produced 50+ RBIs for him. 

The premise of the prediction was there, but the execution of it was not. Miguel Sano had a 136 wRC+ and drove in just two more runs than Rosario while hitting mostly behind Rosario in the lineup. The issue there is that Rosario's low OBP led to many first innings ending with his at bat, bringing Sano up to the plate with nobody on base more times than he should have been in that situation. 

Steals: Leury Garcia simply failed. He went 3 for 4 in his stolen base attempts, but his hot bat completely disappeared as he hit .251/.273/.348 the final two months of the season. He could not steal first base, and he free swung his way out of any impact he was having in the lineup. The White Sox still gave him 200 plate appearances down the stretch, but outside of the 27 runs he added to your bottom line, he was unproductive. The real steal, if you will, was Jon Berti. He  swiped 16 bases  the final two months, taking full advantage of his .357 OBP and the Marlins doing whatever they want to do to disrupt postseason plans for other teams. Jonathan Villar and Mallex Smith have unsurprisingly led baseball in steals, but Berti had one steal on the season , and has gone 16 for 17 since his joining the regular lineup on August 1. 

Wins: Kyle Gibson, like the Twins, stumbled a bit down the stretch. Yes, the Twins won 101 games, but at one point had given up their big lead to Cleveland. Gibson began the late summer well, winning three decisions in August despite terrible overall numbers, but was then relegated to the bullpen in September where he has continued. The big surprise has been Big Maple, James Paxton, who won 10 of his 11 starts since the start of August and pitched the type of baseball the Yankees envisioned when they acquired him from Seattle. Paxton entered August with a 5-6 record, a 4.72 ERA (4.28 FIP), and a 1.51 WHIP. What he has done since then has been the stuff that fantasy dreams are made of. 

Strikeouts: Zach Wheeler struck out 58 batters in 11 starts down the stretch for the Mets, going 4-2 with a 2.66 ERA in that time. He pitched well, especially in this run environment, but 25 other pitchers had more strikeouts than he did down the stretch, including teammates Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz. Both Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander each struck out 104 batters over the final two months of the season, which is very likely a preview of what the postseason has in store for the wildcard winner, Minnesota or New York, and whatever team makes it out of the National League. 

Saves: The recommendation of Ken Giles was predicated on him being traded, which did not happen because he was hurt near the deadline and teams backed away. He was 9 of 11 in the saves department, but it was Archie Bradley who took over the closer role in Arizona and popped off 17 saves down the stretch to help fantasy owners. I had predicted Bradley to be a top-10 closer this year in my preseason predictions, but he did not pitch like one until these last two months. He has gone 17 of 18 in the saves department with a 2.22 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP since acquiring the closer role in Arizona. It is still a risky skillset moving forward given his K-BB%, but he has gotten the job done down the stretch rather well.

WHIP:  It has taken nine categories, but I finally got one right here as Jack Flaherty has been masterful down the stretch. Only Gerrit Cole has a better WHIP (0.63) than Flaherty's 0.67 over these last two months. Flaherty started getting hot in July, and that has extended throughout the summer with his emphasis on throwing more non-fastballs. 

ERA: Mike Fiers has simply been all over the place. He has started 10 games down the stretch, and has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of those outings. In the other four, he has permitted 21 earned runs in 13.2 innings, including the massive meltdown against the Astros where he allowed nine earned runs and five homers without recording four outs.  Whereas Cole bested Flaherty in WHIP, it is Flaherty who has been way out in front in ERA with a 0.84 ERA over the final two months. If we're looking for the biggest surprise in ERA, Flaherty's teammate Dakota Hudson has posed a 2.36 ERA around a 14 percent walk rate!

All in all, way more swings-and-misses than hits in these mid-year predictions than I would have hoped for, especially compared to the success my pre-season bold predictions have enjoyed this year. I can't wait to get to Arizona to begin the 2020 offseason prep in person and in conversations with the 180-plus attendees at this year's First Pitch Arizona event.