Mound Musings: Seeking a Blueprint for Pitching Success

For as long as I can remember, baseball has been trying to limit pitching success, primarily based on the belief that fans would prefer to watch a 12-10 slug-fest rather than a good old-fashioned 1-0 pitcher's duel. I guess I suppose to some extent that is a valid assumption, but pitching junkies do constitute a sizable minority. Keep in mind, "as long as I can remember" dates back a few years. I recall both the Megabad Mets of 1962 and the Miracle Mets of 1969. I watched Sandy Koufax before his career was cut short with arm trouble, and Bob Gibson, who single-handedly got the mound lowered. My first favorite pitcher was a guy named Sam McDowell who pitched in the first game I attended in person in 1964. Nasty, nasty stuff.

The lower mound was a big change, and there have been many, many more that have provided increased focus on offense. Not the least of which includes expansion and the changing face of starting pitching. In the early '60s, there were 20 teams, and most teams employed a four-man rotation, with the best pitchers tossing a lot more innings. A pitching staff often included eight to 10 pitchers. That equates to about 180 MLB pitchers with less than half of those contributing the lion's share of innings. Compare that with today where about 500 pitchers will appear in games, and even elite pitchers barely break the 200-inning barrier. That's a huge opportunity for hitters to face weaker pitchers.

Enough nostalgia. Fast forward to 2019. A whole new wave of offense boosters clearly caught hold, and it became painfully obvious that fantasy owners would need to assess pitchers somewhat differently. The strike zone shrunk significantly, particularly the lower part of the zone, a new baseball – pretty much a super ball covered with leather – made the outfield seats accessible to previously weak hitters who could manage an occasional pop up, and even the elite pitchers saw a dramatic increase in their ERA. Offense was enjoying its biggest year ever, right from Opening Day.

Let's start by stepping back and taking a deep breath. I really do believe what you've seen this season may not be what you'll get over time. Pitching and hitting have always been a tug-of-war as both sides continually adjust to the other. I have seriously focused on trying to identify the characteristics of pitching success in this era of the homer. The following is a recap of what I've seen from hundreds of pitchers over hundreds of innings this year. They are observations, generally confirmed with advanced analytics, and while they aren't the complete answer to the ultimate question, I hope fantasy owners can benefit. Here are a few things I have noticed.

No pitcher has been immune, but some are weathering the storm better than others. What makes the more successful pitchers less vulnerable? 

I focused heavily (though not exclusively) on a handful of pitchers I felt had the skill set to at least partially overcome the offense boosters. The list was led by Justin Verlander. Someday, the 36-year-old will start acting his age, but for today, he still pitches like a wily old veteran with a considerably younger arm. I also watched quite a few innings pitched by Noah Syndergaard. He really struggled early on. There were certainly others, including many rather unheralded newcomers who have enjoyed at least somewhat surprising success. Initially it seemed like there were few similarities between the successful and the strugglers, but eventually some common traits did surface.

This is from a previous Musings, but I think more than ever it bears repeating: Pitching isn't easy. In fact, it's a very difficult thing to do; especially at the highest level of the sport. Here's a little exercise for you. Take a can of spray paint, and paint a box on your garage door. Step sixty feet-six inches back and throw a ball at that box. Throw your first toss at the bottom line of the box, the next one at the top line, followed by one at the right-hand line and then one at the left. Did you hit the targeted line with all four throws? Was the ball travelling over 90 mph with each toss? If the answer is yes, you really should plan to attend the next MLB tryout in your area. However, chances are, the answer was not yes, and we didn't even discuss all of the things that could impact whether you could hit those targets every five days for weeks, months or even years at a time. And, I think to some extent, the evolution of hitting approaches is forcing pitchers to make significant adjustments, which impacts their ability to hit those targets with virtually every pitch. Take the following observations under consideration:

• Velocity isn't everything – It might be borderline sacrilege to say that. From tee-ball graduation to making your MLB debut, all anyone asks for is another mile per hour. Don't get me wrong, a high 90s fastball can be useful, but I think there are diminishing returns on that additional velocity if it comes with reduced movement, and, more importantly, less consistent command. Most MLB pitchers can hit 90 mph with their fastball. These days, more and more pitchers are hitting triple digits, but for many, that added velocity comes at a price. The fastball straightens out, and it doesn't always find the catcher's target. Further, with less consistent secondary pitches, hitters sit on the heat. I promise you this. When someone hits 110 mph, MLB hitters will turn on it if it's straight and they know it's coming. We enter the domain of Verlander. He averages 95 mph with his fastball, but his mechanics are so good, he achieves that with great movement and pinpoint command. He has more. He can touch triple digits, but he chooses to locate consistently and is more successful. In watching his recent starts, Syndergaard may be coming to the same realization. He has backed off the velocity. He still averages in the mid-90s, but the movement has improved dramatically, and he's hitting his spots more consistently. More than ever, I look for superior mechanics with pitchers who pitch within themselves.
• Location, location, location – If you haven't already, you will soon notice that these keys to success are closely related. And, they all lead to locating your pitches. That said, there is a relatively new consideration. In my playing days, it was drilled into every pitcher's mind. Keep the ball down. It made sense. Hitters were taught to keep the swing level, generating line drives and minimizing whiffs. Pitches at the knees were harder to hit with authority. Today, the bottom of the strike zone is considerably higher, and hitters are being encouraged to adopt a seven iron approach to increase launch angle. Strikeouts simply don't matter. Here's a statistical fact to keep in mind. Pitches in the lower half of the strike zone are more than twice as likely to result in a homerun as those in the upper half of the zone. That is huge. If a pitcher cannot (or will not) pitch up in the zone, success will be much harder to achieve. It's the new reality. An upper cut swing makes it harder to hit a ball arriving near the top of the strike zone. On a side note, many readers will know that I am a bit gun shy regarding sinkerball pitchers and, to some extent, the splitter. To be effective, with the new strike zone, these pitches need to end up out of the zone so they require the hitter to chase. Patient hitters will often put the pitcher behind in the count, waiting for an overthrown (little or no sink) pitch, and that's a recipe for disaster.
• Repertoire and pitch sequencing is critical – We now know (or at least think) velocity alone will not result in success, and we know location, especially locating up in the zone, is more important than ever. Now we come to repertoire and sequencing. Repertoire is a pitcher's tool box. The more varied the repertoire, the greater the chances of success. If the job calls for a wrench and all you have is a screwdriver, good luck making it happen. One- or two-pitch pitchers may survive for a while, often living on deception until the hitters catch on, but it's extremely rare for a limited repertoire to be enough long term. A pitcher needs at least three pitches, more is usually better, that he can throw with confidence in any count. I have a list of favorites. When I place my order, I'd like a lively, four-seam fastball; a changeup with a lot of movement to combat opposite hand hitters; and a big curveball, still one of the hardest pitches to hit IMHO; a wipeout slider; oh and throw in the ability to cut the fastball. I don't ask for much, right? The bottom line is, pitches with different movement, and different speeds, thrown to all different parts of the strike zone make hitting considerably more difficult. Honestly, there aren't too many pitchers who possess all of these characteristics, but the closer they come to his blueprint, I believe the closer they are to success.
• Strikeouts, walks, and homeruns – What we're up against. Those seem to be the keywords in today's game. All three are at record paces, and every indication is that this trend will continue, and will perhaps actually accelerate. Players who would definitely be hitting in the middle of the order – your RBI/power guys – now frequently hit first or second in an attempt to maximize their chances to come out of their shoes aiming for the fences. On the flip side, I think pitchers are trying to be much more cautious. To make sure they avoid the homeruns, they nibble more, and being behind in the count is poison. Hitters do swing more (more strikeouts), but if the offerings are too far out of the zone and they don't swing, there are more walks. A couple of walks, followed by a big fly, even with a couple strikeouts in the inning, creates a potentially ugly line score.

Some Other Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Colorado's German Marquez recently landed on the injured list with what has been termed "arm inflammation" but the team claims it is more of a tired arm. He has been helpful to fantasy teams who kept him on the bench for his home starts, but he hasn't been sharp lately, and the Rockies could shut him down.
• When reviewing a list of pitchers who have performed better than I would have anticipated, and there aren't too many, Oakland's Mike Fiers is near the top. He has just average stuff and he doesn't miss many bats, but every batted ball seems to be right at somebody. He's not horrible, but the stats are misleading.
• Mike Soroka just keeps reeling off quality innings, but the Braves have given him little support. Despite allowing just 12 earned runs in his last seven starts, he hasn't logged a win since mid-July. But, perhaps the most impressive stat in his strong season? He's allowed just eight home runs in almost 148 innings.
• After a rough July, Lucas Giolito has come back strong this month. He still loses his release point occasionally, but his overall performance underscores the progress he has made in transitioning from a thrower to a pitcher. There will be a high pitch count outing at times, but he's solidifying his spot as a fantasy asset.
• I've been touting the return to form of Yu Darvish for quite some time, but I'm going to plug him once more. I watched a few innings of his last start, and he looked the best I've seen him look in a couple years. My hope is his first-half peripherals will deflate his price a bit next spring. He's a draft day target.
• Yankees' ace Luis Severino is heading out to Triple-A on a rehab assignment. He's expected to return as a reliever in September, but the team has been very encouraged by his recent progress. He's expected to throw 30 to 40 pitches, and time is very short to stretch him out, but his pitch counts could climb quickly.

Endgame Odyssey:

Interesting events in Miami these days. I really thought Ryne Stanek could grab the closer's gig and run with it, but he has struggled and a new name is entering the picture. Jose Urena will apparently get the ninth inning when he comes off the injured list in September. He has the tools to do the job, perhaps into next season, too? The Angels just got Keynan Middleton back after a year off following Tommy John surgery. He was closing prior to the injury, and while it may not happen this year, I think there is a pretty good chance he eventually gets his job back. One of the most impressive endgame stories of this season is Liam Hendriks in Oakland. Just a couple seasons ago, his decent but not exceptional fastball sat in the low 90s. Now, he sits in the upper 90s and he has developed more movement. I like his chances of moving up near the top tier of closers. With Wade Davis far from effective and Scott Oberg out for the season, the Rockies are holding auditions. The actors include Jairo Diaz and Carlos Estevez. I anticipate Estevez winning the role, but he will still be a risky fantasy option at best. The Blue Jays' Ken Giles has looked very sharp of late, but he hasn't pitched on back-to-back days since dealing with a balky elbow in late July and early August. Just be aware that limited usage could continue in September.