MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

With the trade deadline nearly two weeks in the rearview mirror, we've undoubtedly reached the home stretch of the season, but it's certainly not too late to improve your team. Late-season breakouts happen all the time, meaning helpful players could still be available on waivers. Additionally, many leagues have mid-August trade deadlines, giving you time to make a key late addition.

To get a sense for just how useful additions can still be at this point, I looked at the players who recorded top-10 marks in a handful of standard fantasy categories from Aug. 12 to the end of the season last year. (Wins and saves aren't easily available in splits leaderboards.) The following list gives a notable player in each category along with their performance until that point of the season.

What's the lesson here? Some categories didn't have anyone in the top 10 down the stretch who particularly stood out. Runs for batters and strikeouts for pitchers in particular didn't see anyone perform dramatically better in a small sample. On the whole, though, there are clearly surprise late-season standouts to be found. The next Luke Voit is out there for those looking hard enough to find him.

RISERS

Bo Bichette, SS, Blue Jays: Say hello to the Blue Jays' best rookie — at least according to FanGraphs' WAR, which gives him a 0.8 to 0.6 lead over his even more hyped teammate, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., despite the latter's 87 to 13 lead in games played. Bichette's incredible start to his career didn't come out of nowhere, as he was a highly rated prospect, but it wouldn't have been easy to predict anything close to this level of performance. In 56 games for Triple-A Buffalo, he hit a respectable but unexciting .275/.333/.473, good for just a 102 wRC+, and was more of a threat with his legs (15 steals) than his bat. Bichette won't keep up quite this level of performance the rest of the way, as no one can sustain a .432 BABIP, but there's little reason to believe he won't keep hitting quite well down the stretch. Statcast doesn't quite buy his .367/.424/.717 slash line, but there's certainly nothing wrong with a 21-year-old shortstop posting a .502 expected slugging percentage and a 51.2 percent hard-hit rate.

Aristides Aquino, OF, Reds: Bichette isn't the only rookie who has gotten off to a remarkable start in a small sample. Aquino has emerged as the Reds' everyday right fielder following Yasiel Puig's departure and has certainly earned the role. Through 10 games, he's hit .452/.500/1.161 with an incredible seven homers. Unlike with Bichette, Aquino's early success wasn't all that easy to predict. Heading into the season, he was a fringe prospect but nothing more, with serious contact concerns holding back his considerable power. He'd recorded a career .308 on-base percentage in eight seasons as a professional and had hit just .227/.293/.421 in 245 games at the Double-A level. The 25-year-old changed his swing prior to this season, however, and the effect has been dramatic. He posted a .299/.356/.636 slash line with 28 homers in 78 games for Triple-A Louisville prior to his promotion, giving reason to believe that he'll keep up his strong performance down the stretch, if not to the same ridiculous level he's managed.

Gio Urshela, 3B, Yankees: If you were told before the season started that a big-market team would suffer a host of injuries but wind up doing just fine, you may not be terribly surprised, as one of the luxuries of having a high payroll is that a team can accumulate proven depth options. If you were also told, however, that the team in question had given 342 plate appearances to Urshela, you might be understandably skeptical. Urshela has completely changed his career trajectory since joining the Yankees, however, posting an excellent .323/.368/.572 slash line through 97 games after hitting .225/.274/.315 in 499 plate appearances prior to this season. He's only gotten better as the season has gone on, posting a .371/.404/.831 slash line in the second half after hitting a respectable .304/.355/.469 prior to the All-Star break. Still just 27, he's young enough that a sustainable breakout is certainly believable, and there's little reason to doubt him going forward given his impressive StatCast numbers. He's increased his exit velocity to 91.0 mph, up from a career high 87.0 mph, and his .312 expected batting average and .534 expected slugging percentage aren't far off his actual numbers.

Kyle Schwarber, OF, Cubs: Schwarber has had an up-and-down season overall, posting a .232/.327/.492 slash line, not particularly exciting numbers for a player whose value comes almost exclusively from his bat. He's been quite hot lately, though, hitting .263/.371/.658 over his last 27 games. His 11:11 BB:K over that stretch is particularly impressive. The 26-year-old's overall season numbers do show some growth even with his earlier cold streaks factored in. He's already beaten last season's home run total in 24 fewer games and is just three homers away from tying his career high. He's also cut his strikeout rate for the second straight season, which now sits at a very respectable 25.1 percent. His lack of speed and flyball approach is likely always going to keep his batting average fairly low, though Statcast thinks that number could come up a fair amount, as his expected batting average sits at .256.

Ian Happ, 3B/OF, Cubs: Has Happ been fixed? He was a useful enough played in his first two seasons in the majors, hitting .242/.341/.459, but his 33.8 percent strikeout rate cast some doubt on the sustainability of that line and didn't really suit a player with only modest power. His surprise demotion to Triple-A Iowa at the start of this season didn't seem to have the desired effect, as he recorded a disappointing 96 wRC+. In 16 games since rejoining the Cubs in late July, however, he appears to be a new man, hitting .300/.391/.650. Notably, he's cut his strikeout rate all the way down to 21.7 percent. Happ is only just turning 25 on Monday, and he was never a particularly high strikeout guy in the minors, posting a career 23.9 percent, so there's some reason to believe the improvement could stick despite the short sample size.

Dinelson Lamet, SP, Padres: Lamet's 28.7 percent strikeout rate in his debut season back in 2017 made him an interesting sleeper last season before Tommy John surgery ended his campaign before it got started. Through his first seven starts of this season, though, he appears to be belatedly making good on the hype. He's only average five innings per start, hardly surprising given that he basically only throws a fastball and a slider, which does hurt his chances at wins. His performances during his relatively brief outings have been quite strong, though. His 10.1 percent walk rate is a little too high, but it's been more than offset by his 32.6 percent strikeout rate, giving him a 3.86 ERA.

FALLERS

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees: Oblique injuries are tough. Judge's .265/.394/.445 line in 43 games since returning from a two-month absence with an oblique strain would be more than sufficient for most players but is still well below the level we've seen him be capable of. He's  stumbled in his last 17 games, however, hitting .172/.293/.266 with just one homer. His 30.7 percent strikeout rate over that stretch is bad, but his strikeout rates have always been bad. He's relied on excellent contact when he does make contact, which has typically more than canceled out his swing-and-miss issues. His hard-hit rate has dropped from a career average 48.1 percent to 44.7 percent over his recent rough patch, and he's had an even more noticeable drop in flyball rate, a problem which has lasted all season. Just 28.7 percent of his batted balls this season have been flies, down from a career 38.2 percent. That's led to him hitting a homer once every 23.2 plate appearances, down from a career rate of once every 16.3 trips to the plate.

Jose Martinez, 1B/OF: Martinez has been in and out of the lineup this season, as the Cardinals have a number of playable but not entirely convincing options for their outfield spots. He appears to be falling out of favor recently, sitting three games in a row prior to Sunday's game. The 31-year-old doesn't seem to deserve a regular role at this point. He's a bat-only player who owns a mediocre .266/.336/.401 line at the plate on the season and has a particularly poor .189/.299/.297 line over his last 26 games. According to Statcast, his down season appears to be the result of declining skills at the plate rather than merely poor luck. He's seen his exit velocity drop from 90.7 mph to 88.5 mph, while his barrel rate has fallen from 9.4 percent to 7.1 percent.

Rhys Hoskins. 1B/OF, Phillies: The Phillies' offseason acquisitions have generally failed to live up to expectations at the plate this season, but returning star Hoskins can be blamed as much as anyone for the team's recent slide. He hasn't managed a multi-hit game since July 24 and owns a poor .136/.292/.322 line in the 16 games since that date. The 26-year-old's season on the whole can be considered a modest disappointment as well. His .245/.385/.494 line is slightly better than last season's .246/.345/.496 mark, though his gains have come almost exclusively from his jump in walk rate from 13.2 percent to 17.8 percent, which only helps fantasy owners in leagues that use on-base percentage. His quality of contact has gone down across the board according to Statcast, suggesting that he's lucky to have kept his average and slugging percentage intact. Thanks in part to a drop in barrel rate from 11.4 percent to 9.7 percent, Statcast gives him an expected batting average of .224 and an expected slugging percentage of just .415, nowhere near good enough for a power-hitting first baseman.

J.A. Happ, SP, Yankees: It's not terribly surprising to see a 36-year-old pitcher look old. Still, it's somewhat unexpected in Happ's case, as he'd finished with a 3.65 ERA or lower in four consecutive seasons and had just recorded a 26.3 percent strikeout rate last year, easily the highest of his career. Through 23 starts this season, his strikeout rate has plummeted to 18.6 percent while his ERA has jumped to 5.48. He's been particularly poor over his last four starts, allowing 19 runs in 20 innings, giving up eight homers while striking out just 11 batters. His velocity is down a full tick this season, and he's given up harder contact than he has in recent years, with batters' hard-hit rate jumping from 34.0 percent last year to 38.5 percent this season.