MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

With All-Star voting ending this week, it's time to unveil your 2019 fantasy All-Stars. The following table shows the players who top each league in their respective positions as of Monday, according to our earned auction values:

Being a fantasy star correlates very well with what we're looking for as an All-Star, so consider submitting something close to the names above if you're interested in voting for the All-Star game. Unfortunately, the new primary system didn't do a perfect job, so you won't be able to vote for Devers, Mondesi, Santana or Ozuna, but the rest of the hitters are available.

Overall, the list is mostly filled with players we expected to be good, though there are certainly surprises. Carlos Santana is one of those, as he was drafted 21st among first baseman in the NFBC, though the top five first basemen by earned auction value are in the National League. Still, he's been a big bargain for those lucky enough to draft him. Devers was drafted as the 20th third baseman, though he did at least have years of prospect hype. Domingo Santana deserves a mention as well, as he was taken 57th among outfielders. Ryu's season has been truly remarkable and may be the biggest surprise of all. It doesn't get much better than a 1.27 ERA, especially for a player taken as the 63rd pitcher off the board.

Second base stands out the most. The two fantasy All-Star starters ranked 23rd (Marte) and 29th (LeMahieu) at the position during NFBC drafts. Those who drafted a top-5 second baseman are probably happy enough, however, as only Jose Altuve among that group ranks outside the top 10 in earned auction value, with Javier Baez, Whit Merrifield, Ozzie Albies and Gleyber Torres performing acceptably. When Tommy La Stella is a deserving All-Star finalist, however, you know the world is in an odd place.

RISERS

Yordan Alvarez, OF, Astros: The Astros got another one. Alvarez is just 12 games into his big-league career, but there's already little doubt he belongs. He's already homered seven times, and there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of luck involved in his .333/.429/.813 line. It's taken an  achievable .321 BABIP to get him there, and Statcast has loved his quality of contact, giving him a .306 expected batting average and a .689 expected slugging percentage. Alvarez never had significant strikeout issues in the minors, and that's carried through into his big-league debut, where he's combined an acceptable 23.2 percent strikeout rate with a strong 14.3 percent walk rate. The 21-year-old is already locked into an everyday role in the heart of the Astros order and is a good bet to remain there for years to come.

 Anthony Rendon, 3B, Nationals: Rendon has reached another level this season as the Nationals' primary offensive star with Bryce Harper no longer in town. His 161 wRC+ is well above his career-high 141, and each part of his .310/.404/.634 line would represent a career high. That slugging percentage in particular represents a big jump from last season's previous career-high  .535, beating it by nearly 100 points. Rendon's batted-ball data supports his improved numbers, with big jumps across the board. He's increased his barrel rate from 10.3 percent to 17.6 percent and seen his hard-hit rate jump from 44.6 percent to 54.3 percent. It's possible that he's even underachieved slightly, as his expected batting average sits at .336 while his expected slugging percentage comes in at .660, numbers that rank second and third among qualified hitters, respectively. If he can keep this up, Rendon should rise significantly from his 42.2 NFBC ADP next season.

 Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Orioles: The rule that mandates one All-Star from every team produces some questionable All-Stars, though Mancini isn't one. After posting a disappointing .242/.299/.416 line last season, he's improved significantly across the board this year, hitting .305/.364/.564 with 17 homers, already just seven shy of his career high. He's been particularly strong in  June, hitting .324/.412/.632. StatCast supports his strong performance, giving him an expected batting average of .294 and an expected slugging percentage of .535. The Orioles likely want to hold onto Mancini for their next competitive team, though it's possible he gets to move somewhere with better teammates (but potentially a worse home park) before the deadline.

 Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B, Brewers: Moustakas has received surprisingly decent grades as a second baseman. More important for fantasy owners, learning the position hasn't seemed to affect his offensive game. On the contrary, he's in the middle of a career year. After posting a solid .846 OPS through his first 50 games, he's taken off over his last 21, hitting an excellent .342/.444/.737 with nine homers. His season batting line now sits at .280/.359/.583, good for a 140 wRC+, well above his career-high 123. (Quick aside: the top six second baseman by wRC+ this season are Jeff McNeil, Max Muncy, Moustakas, Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe and Tommy La Stella. If you predicted that two years ago, please send me this week's lottery numbers.) Moustakas' supporting stats back up his improved numbers, as he's improved his barrel rate from 8.8 percent to 12.7 percent and his hard-hit rate from 39.1 percent to 45.0 percent, so there's little reason to believe his numbers will fall off significantly any time soon.

 Hansel Robles, RP, Angels: The Angels had a locked-in closer in Cody Allen to start the season, and Robles didn't appear to be near the top of the list of alternates should Allen eventually falter. Allen lost the job in late April and has since been released, but Robles has stepped up impressively. He owns six of the Angels' last seven saves and hasn't allowed a run in June, posting a 11:1 K:BB in 10 innings this month. His 3.06 ERA is well earned. His 26.1 percent strikeout rate is his highest since 2015, while his 5.8 percent walk rate is easily a career low, down significantly from his 10.3 percent mark from last season. With his control finally in check in his fifth big-league season, Robles looks to be a good bet to be a solid closer the rest of the way.

FALLERS

 Chris Paddack, SP, Padres: To be clear, I still love Chris Paddack. What he's shown in his debut season makes me fully confident in him for future seasons as a dynasty-league asset, and I still expect him to throw several more good outings this season. There was a time to sell him in redraft leagues, however, and that time likely has already passed. After recording a ridiculous 1.55 ERA backed up by a 30.7 percent strikeout rate through his first seven career starts, he's looked thoroughly human over his last six, striking out just 20.3 percent of batters while posting a 5.40 ERA. He's likely to pass last season's inning total (90) in just four more starts, and  the Padres are already looking for ways to limit his workload, as his recent brief demotion to High-A Lake Elsinore suggests. The best time to trade Paddack was probably before his workload management plan even began, but there's still time to move him for potentially more than he's worth before that becomes his primary storyline.

 Madison Bumgarner, SP, Giants: There was at least an outside chance that Bumgarner would bounce back to vintage form this season with last year's broken finger and 2017's dirt-bike accident further in the rearview mirror. Through 16 starts, it seems pretty clear that's not going to happen. Thursday's shellacking by the Dodgers sent his ERA up to 4.28, over a run worse than last season's 3.26 mark. The ERA estimators have seen this coming for a while, however, particularly xFIP, which pegged at 4.07 in 2017 and 4.32 in 2018 despite ERAs that remained in the low 3s and disguised the severity of his decline. While he's seen his strikeout rate rebound from 19.8 percent to 23.0 percent, hitters are making far better contact when they do connect. He's allowed a .261 batting average, well above his career-high .231, and it appears to be deserved, as the hard-hit rate against him has jumped from 35.3 percent to 42.4 percent. Beware the seemingly inevitable midseason trade, as well; while he might pick up a few more wins on a contender, that would likely be more than offset by what would almost certainly be a significant downgrade in home park.

 Michael Chavis, 1B/2B/3B, Red Sox: Chavis' swing-and-miss issues are worrisome enough that he belongs on this list even despite a recent 11-game hitting streak, as he struck out 36.5 percent of the time over that stretch. Expand the window a little further to cover his last 24 games and you'll see a 43.0 percent strikeout rate paired with a .232/.270/.337 line, giving him a 34.1 percent strikeout rate this season, third highest among qualified hitters. That number is no surprise given that he owns the league's lowest contact rate (63.1 percent). It's hard to be a productive hitter with that level of contact unless you have truly elite power, but Chavis isn't at that level, as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate have both been below average. It's hard to sustain a .362 BABIP with that kind of contact, so now looks to be a good time to move on from Chavis before his value sinks further.

 Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds: Suarez appeared to be carrying on last season's strong performance through the first two months of the season, recording a .901 OPS through the end of May. He's been in an extended slump in June, however, posting a  .160/.222/.240  line since this  month. That slump has brought his season line down to a thoroughly average (101 wRC+) .246/.323/.463. He's made noticeably worse contact this season compared to last, with his exit velocity falling from 91.2 mph to 89.3 mph and his hard-hit rate falling from 45.6 percent to 41.4 percent. Statcast suggests he's actually overachieved, giving him an expected batting average of .229 and an expected slugging percentage of .413. There's still plenty of time for him to turn things around, but with only one really elite offensive season under his belt (his wRC+ in 2017 was a good but not great 116), expectations should be relatively modest.

 Mike Foltynewicz, SP, Braves: Foltynewicz featured in this column in mid-May after some early season struggles. Things have only gotten worse since, leading to him getting sent down to Triple-Gwinnett on Sunday after a poor showing Saturday against the Nationals. His 7.27 ERA over his last five starts brought his season ERA to 6.37, with poor supporting numbers across the board. His 27.2 percent strikeout rate last season looks like a total outlier, as that number has cratered to 19.2 percent this season, in line with the numbers from the rest of his career. Not only are batters making more contact, they're also making better contact. Batters have hit .269 off him this season compared to .194 last season, a difference backed up by Statcast, which pegged his expected average against at .205 last year and .265 this season. There's a decent chance Foltynewicz returns to the rotation at some point later in the year, but there's little reason to believe he'll be a particularly interesting fantasy arm.