FanDuel MLB: Thursday Breakdown

FanDuel MLB: Thursday Breakdown

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Thursday's DFS action starts at 2:05 p.m. EDT with a two-game slate of Cleveland at Texas and Colorado at Arizona. The main slate starts at 7:05 p.m. EDT and features 10 games.

Pitching

The pitching options for cash starts with the most expensive pitcher of the night, the Nationals' Stephen Strasburg ($10,800). The Phillies aren't that bad of a matchup for Strasburg as their .302 wOBA on the road against right-handed pitching is the seventh-lowest mark in baseball. Strasburg has an elite 29.6 percent strikeout rate and has cut his walk rate down to 6.2 percent. He's been consistent, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in 12 of his 15 starts.

He's best left for tournaments, but the Phillies' Nick Pivetta ($7,700) has looked much better since being re-called to the big club. He's scored 26, 52 and 49 fantasy points in his three starts since returning, and Washington is in the bottom half of the league with a team wOBA of .311 and a 23.6 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Pivetta appears to have regained his confidence while in the minors and had a 2.70 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP across four starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

The Astros' Framber Valdez ($7,400) is the perfect contrarian play for GPPs. The ownership will be low with him taking on the Yankees in New York, and his price isn't exactly inexpensive with 12 pitchers priced cheaper than him. The Yankees have struggled against left-handed pitching this season with a .288 wOBA (26th) and a 26.2 percent strikeout rate (sixth highest). Valdez has been excellent in his last two starts parlaying 15 strikeouts in 13 innings into scores of 43 and 46 fantasy points. 

The Marlins' Zac Gallen ($7,000) has had excellent numbers in the minor leagues (1.77 ERA, 112 strikeouts in 91.1 innings at Triple-A New Orleans) and is another consideration for GPPs when he faces the Cardinals.

Key Values/Chalk

The Cubs' Kyle Schwarber ($3,300) is a good outfielder around which to build a lineup, considering his price and upside.  He comes into this game swinging a hot bat with five home runs over the last two weeks leading to a .980 OPS. He gets a good matchup against Mets rookie Walter Lockett, who should get roughed up by the Cubs in Wrigley. Schwarber's best career split is at home against right-handed pitching (.368 wOBA).

Shortstop is always a good place to spend up, so the Astros' Alex Bregman ($4,400) is worth his cost. He's hitting right-handed pitching better than lefties this season, and his .394 wOBA tells a more accurate story than his .264 batting average against that handedness. The Astros as a team should get into the Yankees' secondary pitching with Chad Green getting the start. Green in a limited sample has allowed a .474 wOBA to right-handed hitters at home.

With the Dodgers facing lefty Madison Bumgarner, normally Justin Turner would be the recommendation here. However, that nod goes to Los Angeles' David Freese ($2,900), who also hits lefties extremely well and has a good history against MadBum. Freese has gone 7-for-15 (1.329 OPS) against Bumgarner and has a .397 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Look for Freese to hit in the heart of the order for this one.

Any chance the Marlins wish they still have the Reds' Derek Dietrich ($2,800)? He's affordable at this price especially for a player who has a .411 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Jimmy Nelson has looked terrible in his first two appearances for the Brewers, allowing four earned runs in each game and lasting no more than four innings. 

Unsurprisingly, a move out of Petco Park and into the American League has hurt Clayton Richard's stats. He's surrendering a .430 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season in a small sample, putting the Angels' Albert Pujols ($3,000) firmly in play. Pujols will hit in a good RBI spot (probably fifth) and has averaged a respectable 9.8 fantasy points this season. Try to fit in that Mike Trout ($4,800) guy if possible; he's killed the Jays with 57.9 and 40.9 fantasy points in two of the last three games.

Stacks

Reds at Brewers (Jimmy Nelson)

Dietrich, Joey Votto (C/1B 0 $3,100), Nick Senzel (OF - $3,500), Jesse Winker ($3,000)

There's about zero chance Nelson lasts long enough to get a quality start, with this being his third appearance of the season following his long layoff. The Reds just took three straight from the Astros despite facing one of the best rotations in baseball and find themselves in a favorable matchup.

Angels at Blue Jays (Clayton Richard)

Pujols,  Justin Upton (OF - $3,900), Shohei Ohtani (OF - $4,000), David Fletcher (SS - $2,700)

This will likely be the most popular stack of the night, and there's a good argument it can be used for cash games. Richard (7.52 ERA) has been awful, and the Angels opened as -145 favorites in a game that has an over/under of 10 runs.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Kevin Payne plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: Fanduel: kevinccp, Draft Kings: kevinccp, Yahoo: kevinccp.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kevin Payne
Kevin has worked for RotoWire over a decade and has covered basketball, baseball and football. A glutton for punishment, he roots for his hometown Bills, Sabres and the New York Yankees. You can follow him on Twitter @KCPayne26.
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