Mound Musings: Looking for Answers

It's late May, and some fantasy owners are probably growing frustrated with pitchers who have gotten off to a less than anticipated start. Maybe you built a pitching staff you could've only dreamed about led by genuine aces like Noah Syndergaard and Chris Sale, with your top pick to get it all back together this year, Yu Darvish. And, it doesn't stop there. Sure, he pitches for Colorado, but Kyle Freeland looked awesome last year, and while he'll miss the first couple weeks, Mike Foltynewicz should be a great fifth starter, right? A few weeks later, you look at the smoldering roster sheet, and wonder, what happened? Your "best" pitchers have been repeatedly battered, and you're buried in the standings across most pitching categories, while opposing owners with staffs led by arms like Zach Davies and Jordan Lyles are flying high. What do you do? Trade them? Cut them? There are newcomers out there sprinkling stardust in your eyes! Maybe you should grab a couple of those guys.

Let's start by stepping back, and taking a deep breath. What you've seen, may not be what you'll get over time. Let's take a look at why some of these guys just aren't making it happen, and whether it's likely to be short term, or whether the nightmare will last over the long haul. We'll start with our five early season major disappointments.

"I thought my starting pitching was the strength of my team."

 It still could be. Over the course of a full season, most pitchers, literally almost all, have stretches of performance that ranges between exceptional and horrible. The elite pitchers have more and longer stretches of exceptional, and shorter, less damaging periods of horrible. Conversely, while a mediocre (or worse) talent will occasionally string together a few good starts, it typically doesn't last long, and it's followed by a string of very poor outings that more than erase the good stats. You have to always keep this in mind. Being human, those pitchers out there on the mound will perform differently from day to day, and in some cases even from inning to inning.

Looking at our five-man rotation – these are relatively random examples, there could be quite a few others who would fit the criteria – certainly caused plenty of tribulation. Syndergaard, who I personally believe displays the best stuff in the game on any given night, has long had some issues when pitching with men on base. With his normal stuff, that's not a big concern, as he just severely limits runners. Unfortunately, his mechanics were off early on, which led to a lot of baserunners, higher pitch counts and short outings. It was even worse for perennial Cy Young candidate, Sale. At one point, he was 0-5 with an ERA over 8.00 for a team expected to be one of the best in baseball. His velocity was down, his pitches were up (in the zone), and none of them had the crisp movement that we expect every outing. Darvish is in the same class when he's on, but he continued to struggle terribly with throwing strikes. The Colorado Cinderella story, Freeland, has looked suspiciously like a Rockies hurler, and Folty did make it back to the mound in Atlanta, but after missing pretty much all of spring training and the first month of the regular season, expecting a lot in his first few starts would have been rather presumptuous. He's only now beginning to round into form.

Have faith, folks, the smoke appears to be clearing. Syndergaard is working through his command issues and has allowed a total of just eight runs in four May starts (30 innings) for a 2.40 ERA. Sale, who defines intense competitive spirit, has underscored the theory of bad being countered by excellence with regard to elite pitchers. In his four May starts, he has piled up an incredible 51 strikeouts in 26 innings, while his ERA has plummeted to a somewhat more respectable 4.31. Much like the reference to Mongo in the movie Blazing Saddles, when Sherriff Bart considers shooting him – "Oh no, don't do that, you'll just make him mad." Darvish appears to making progress, too. He still suffers command issues with various offerings, but he is adjusting and going to the pitches that are working that day with considerable success. The biggest concern is his inability to get deeper into games, as he has completed six innings just twice so far this season. I'd be a bit more concerned about Freeland. He has good stuff, but surviving in Coors Field requires a notch above "good" stuff. I believe he'll adjust and post respectable numbers, but 2018 results are probably a stretch, Finally, Foltynewicz is already showing positive signs. Spring training is about over for him.

This is from a previous Musings, but I think more than ever it bears repeating: Pitching isn't easy. In fact, it's a very difficult thing to do; especially at the highest level of the sport. Here's a little exercise for you. Take a can of spray paint, and paint a box on your garage door. Step sixty feet-six inches back and throw a ball at that box. Throw your first toss at the bottom line of the box, the next one at the top line, followed by one at the right-hand line and then one at the left. Did you hit the targeted line with all four throws? Was the ball travelling over 90 mph with each toss? If the answer is yes, you really should plan to attend the next MLB tryout in your area. However, chances are, the answer was not yes, and we didn't even discuss all of the things that could impact whether you could hit those targets every five days for weeks, months or even years at a time. And, I think to some extent, the evolution of hitting approaches is forcing pitchers to make significant adjustments, which impact their ability to hit those targets with virtually every pitch. Take the following observations under consideration:

• Swing hard in case you hit it – I remember that from my youth. I swore by it. I hit the ball a very long way, I just didn't hit it very often. Back then the phrase was somewhat tongue-in-cheek. When the count was in the pitcher's favor, or in certain situations, you shortened your swing, and contact was important. Not so much today. It costs hitters some points in batting average, but it's dangerous for pitchers. If you miss out over the plate, regardless of the count, even generally light hitting batters can burn you. They want their share of the fireworks, too. Stolen bases have been de-emphasized, bunting and to a certain extent, moving runners, are out of fashion. I actually believe this transformation has been hard for some old-school players and managers to accept. But, it is current reality.
• Strikeouts, walks and homeruns – Those seem to be the keywords in today's game. All three are at record paces, and every indication is that trend will continue and could actually accelerate. Players who would definitely be hitting in the middle of the order – your RBI/power guys – now frequently hit first or second in an attempt to maximize their chances to come out of their shoes aiming for the fences. On the flip side, I think pitchers are trying to be much more cautious. To make sure they avoid the homeruns, they nibble more. Hitters swing more (more strikeouts), but if the offerings are too far out of the zone and they don't swing, there are more walks. A couple of walks, followed by a big fly, even with a couple strikeouts in the inning, creates a potentially ugly line score.
• Is finesse trying to make a comeback – At least as prominent as the homerun stroke, the focus on pitching talent is squarely on the big, power arms. A very few years ago, when a pitcher hit triple digits, just once in an outing, it was front page news. Now it's an everyday, ho-hum occurrence. Having a huge fastball draws attention, unfortunately even with poor command and the lack of other quality pitches. Those big arms are often rushed through the minor leagues and arrive in the majors under-qualified to handle very accomplished hitters. They are, in my humble opinion, the template for strikeouts/walks/homeruns (see above). That said, in some ways, I think the finesse pitchers have been just a bit less vulnerable to the new, trendy hitting approach. They are used to nibbling. They survive by making pitches out of the zone look like strikes. They do have a somewhat unique ability to get softer contact when a hitter swings at a pitcher's pitch. I believe it will level off, and understand this is a general statement – not every finesse pitcher is enjoying a pure renaissance – so I consider it an experiential benefit more so than a clear advantage.
• Location, location, location – I think that still is, and perhaps always will be, the bottom line. If you can throw a relatively wide range of quality pitches, at least three, and better with four or more, consistently to a predetermined spot, you will ultimately succeed at the major league level. Your fastball doesn't have to blow up the gun at 103 mph. Sure, that's a big bonus, but that pill in the wrong spot just gets the press box scrambling to see what the record for exit velocity might be on a 480 foot moonshot. Major league hitters can turn around any fastball if it's in their preferred hitting zone. Elite pitchers virtually always have, on the majority of days, both exceptional stuff and pinpoint (or close to it) command of the strike zone. That is why, barring injuries or some other outside influence, I always expect the really good ones to rise to the top as the season progresses.

Some Other Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Sometimes pitchers can just be very comfortable in specific ballparks. Boston's David Price looked quite so in his start coming off the injured list in Toronto. Did you know that in 18 career starts at the Rogers Centre (with Boston, Toronto and Tampa Bay), Price is 13-1 with a tidy 3.31 ERA? I think he likes it there.
• Every time I see him I'm even more impressed with the continuing evolution of Clayton Kershaw. He is very different from the power pitcher he was earlier in his career, using his fastball far less, but mixing in breaking pitches to keep hitters off balance. The really good ones always find a way to get it done.
• The warning signs are up again for Aaron Sanchez. He recently left a start early with a blister. They have made some progress in battling this issue that has haunted him for a couple years, but it clearly continues to negatively impact his effectiveness and reliability. Owners probably need a Plan B at the ready.
• Things have gone from bad to worse for Arizona's Merrill Kelly. He began the season with some encouraging outings, but following a short outing where he walked seven Cubs in mid-April, he seems to have lost his way (and the strike zone). I'm not ready to write him off, but some adjustments are needed.
• The Yankees' ageless master, CC Sabathia, is a great example of a seasoned veteran being able to use finesse to keep hitters off balance. Unfortunately, the chronic knee problems he has dealt with apparently returned, and he's likely to miss his next start. Hopefully he'll be back in stride very soon.
• The Brewers' Zach Davies was knocked around by the Reds in his last start (six runs in three innings). Just like the elite pitchers evening out their stats over time with excellent outings, less capable pitchers will usually even out their string of superior starts with less dominant performances as the season wears on.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Braves and Mariners completed a trade of bullpen arms earlier this week. For Atlanta, the addition of Anthony Swarzak is indicative of a serious contender trying very hard to find some help, any help, for a shaky (generous) pen. For the M's, Swarzak wasn't in their future plans, but perhaps Arodys Vizcaino, who is out for the season following shoulder surgery, could be. Fantasy impact this year: probably none. There could be some changes in the Cubs' end game options on the horizon. Steve Cishek remains the primary guy for the foreseeable future, but interim closer, Pedro Strop, is expected to face live hitters as soon as he rehabs from a hamstring strain, and regular closer, Brandon Morrow, has resumed throwing following a setback in his rehab. Shawn Kelley picked up two saves immediately after he returned from the injury list, but his closing days may be short-lived. Jose Leclerc has resumed his pitching dominance and should soon reclaim the closer's gig in Texas. Colorado's Wade Davis just landed on the injured list with a "slight" oblique strain. Under normal circumstances, the fill-in would be pretty obvious to me. Seunghwan Oh has the tools and past experience closing. However, it has been a bumpy road for him of late, so it looks like Scott Oberg will be the interim primary closer. He's not an ideal candidate, but Davis isn't expected to miss much time (just be aware oblique injuries can be finicky) so his tenure may be brief.